New Nuclear Plants Status

[Rennhack]

The DOE has a great page that tracks the New construction process better than I can, see the link below.

http://www.nuclear.gov/np2010/neScorecard/neScorecard.html

[Rennhack]

You heard it here first...

- 3 ESPs have been issued – North Anna and Grand Gulf were both granted their permits
- 1 ESP is under review (Vogtle)
- I believe FPL has announced Turkey Point as the subject of their COLA, not St. Lucie.
- Our records indicate Mid-American ended their pursuit of a COLA last month.
- Progress’ Harris COLA has been submitted to the NRC (2/19)
- Grand Gulf will go in 2/27 (tomorrow - yay!)


Stay tuned for more updates.

[RDTroja]

You heard it here first...

- I believe FPL has announced Turkey Point as the subject of their COLA, not St. Lucie.

That is correct... they are already doing some preliminary land work for units 6 and 7 (1,2 and 5 are gas plants) south of units 3 and 4 (nuclear).

[cbramsey]

Entergy News Release

http://www.entergy.com/news_room/newsrelease.aspx?NR_ID=1130

 
 
 
Entergy, NuStart Announce Submittal of Application for New Nuclear License 
Jackson, Miss. – Entergy and NuStart Energy Development today announced the submittal of a combined construction and operating license application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a potential new nuclear unit in Port Gibson, Miss.

[Rennhack]

The DOE has a great page setup that tracks the New construction process better than I can, see the link below, and attachmets.

http://www.nuclear.gov/np2010/neScorecard/neScorecard.html

[B.PRESGROVE]

Excellent link, lets you really get a pretty good feel for what is next and down the pike.  Thanks Ren.

[Rennhack]

You are welcome. I'm just happy to find the resource.

[ddm502001]

With the current economic shifts, is there concern these plants will end up along with those canceled in the 80's?  I work at Callaway, we see a lot of activity toward Unit two but the commitment still isn't there among the managers.  AUE is still considering coal units elsewhere.

[matthew.b]

With the current economic shifts, is there concern these plants will end up along with those canceled in the 80's?  I work at Callaway, we see a lot of activity toward Unit two but the commitment still isn't there among the managers.  AUE is still considering coal units elsewhere.

I think you can list multiple reasons for all of the cancellations before, and only some of them are in play today.

In the 80's, many plants were done and ready to go online, but couldn't because of regulatory hurdles.  I strongly doubt that will happen again.  That delay compounded with high interest rates really hurt the utilities bottom lines.  The most troubling trend today is the credit market.  It will still take a long time to build new plants, and if the utilities have to pay exorbitant rates it will hurt.

As for the previous factors that I doubt are in play:  Our grid is far more overextended than at any time previously.  The possibility of an overbuild resulting in idle plants is negligible.  An overwhelming majority of the capacity added in the last 20 years has been gas turbine plants.  With the high price of natural gas, any new nuke brought online can easily bump those gas turbine plants offline and run 100% whenever they are available.  Yes, some utilities are also adding coal, but I doubt it will be enough.  Clean coal is also expensive to build coal, evening out the cost somewhat.  Couple that with much more resistance to new coal and that helps nuclear. 

Don't ignore the fact that in Texas, there was outcry over coal plant plans, but near silence over multiple nuclear plant applications.  I believe the majority of public sentiment is on our side now.

[rlbinc]

Industrial Load Growth faded in the 1980's as manufacturing jobs were exported and recession ensued. There were still many plants on order post-TMI, which were ultimately cancelled due to slow electrical demand growth, high interest rates and rising vendor costs.

One out of three of those conditions exist today, and that reflects on the odds of a planned unit reaching commercial operation. Just like Shoreham, Midland, Black Fox, Marble Hill, Bellefonte, Cherokee, etc. - some plants won't make it.

If any are built, the odds favor Texas. Load growth, economic conditions, and political environment combine to favor builds in this region.

If we can build there and generate economically - other states will follow suit. 

[cbramsey]

http://tinyurl.com/62wlx3

Westinghouse in Agreement With Georgia Power for Two AP1000 Nuclear Power Plants

        - First announced EPC Contract in United States in 30 years
      - Plants to be built at Alvin W. Vogtle site near Waynesboro, Ga

Well, the future is now!!!!!  Southern Nuclear signed an Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) contract.

 

[Carolina Jethro]

Sounds great but they are at least a year away from getting NRC approval and probably another year from all the other challenges they face. I will be glad to see it but I imagine it will be at least 2020 before another plant goes online. I hope I'm wrong. But being a safety guy now the construction will keep me busy. 

[War Eagle]

I will be glad to see it but I imagine it will be at least 2020 before another plant goes online. I hope I'm wrong. But being a safety guy now the construction will keep me busy. 

I'll bet $1 on 2012.

[Nuclear Renaissance]

I'll bet $1 on 2012.

Can I get in on this action? I'll even give you odds - sync to grid on or after Jan 1, 2013, War Eagle owes me a dollar. Before that, I owe War Eagle a dollar and I pay for his upgrade to gold membership...

Agree?

[War Eagle]

Can I get in on this action? I'll even give you odds - sync to grid on or after Jan 1, 2013, War Eagle owes me a dollar. Before that, I owe War Eagle a dollar and I pay for his upgrade to gold membership...

Agree?

Deal!    This includes half-built mothballed plants, right?

[Nuclear Renaissance]

This includes half-built mothballed plants, right?

Uh, no - you can't sneak a gold membership out of Watts Bar restart. This thread is about Generation III+ plants - APWR, ABWR, ESBWR, AP1000, EPR....

[War Eagle]

Aww shucks, I think I'll owe you a buck. Maybe I'll read the thread next time, haha!

[B.PRESGROVE]

hey hey hey hey, if there is money going around then let some of the other pukes play here.  10 to one odds that things will be finalized and construction started b4 2012 and first power to grid by 2017.  Takers anyone, takers?

[NukeLDO]

Thanks for that link Ren.  Very informative.  I can see why the nuclear Navy should be worried about losing people to the commercial industry if only have of what's being proposed comes to fruition.

[wlrun3]

"The realistic expectations of industry experts are that the first new nuclear power plant will begin commercial operation in 2017, with a potential for up to 15-20 new plants coming online in the years shortly thereafter.

The issue is simple and inescapable: half of the nuclear power radiation protection workforce is 50 years old or older and is likely to retire or leave the industry for other reasons over the next 10 years. At the same time, the entry rate of new radiation protection staff into the industry is on a declining trend, such that only about 10 percent of the workforce is under 40 years
old. This means that the nuclear power industry will either need to develop and bring into the workplace more than 1,000 new health physicists and technicans over the next 10 years, or it will need to substantially change how radiation protection is conducted at nuclear power plants in the future, so as not to need as many staff, or both."

Ralph Andersen, CHP
Health Physics News, July 2008

[exocom]

As much as I would love this "Nuclear Renaissance" to come true, I just do not see it happening.  Do a little research into major financing and you will find none of the major banks ready to back the construction of new nuclear plants.  It will probably take the US government to build new nuclear power units.  I can see NRG possibly building new units at STP and TVA being a government entity building Bellefonte along with the rest of NuStart.  Unfortunately, I believe the majority of the utilities jumped at free government money from the Energy Policy Act of 2005.  Seems like their real intentions are to keep their options open and just do enough on their new nuclear plants to keep the US taxpayer money coming into their coffers.  Hoping I'm wrong, but I am not optimistic on this subject.

[Nuclear Renaissance]

As much as I would love this "Nuclear Renaissance" to come true, I just do not see it happening.  Do a little research into major financing and you will find none of the major banks ready to back the construction of new nuclear plants.  It will probably take the US government to build new nuclear power units.  I can see NRG possibly building new units at STP and TVA being a government entity building Bellefonte along with the rest of NuStart.  Unfortunately, I believe the majority of the utilities jumped at free government money from the Energy Policy Act of 2005.  Seems like their real intentions are to keep their options open and just do enough on their new nuclear plants to keep the US taxpayer money coming into their coffers.  Hoping I'm wrong, but I am not optimistic on this subject.

I think you are overlooking the fact that in the regulated utility markets, the states are going to allow the utilities to start recovering costs in present-day billing, regardless of whether the plant ever ends up turning a generator.

[B.PRESGROVE]

Excellent point.  I know here in my state the utility is already raising rates due to fuel costs and in anticipation of building.  The state gov already said they could recoup expenses on the back of its customers when they do decide to build.

[exocom]

The state governments of this state and the one just south of here have authorized the recovering of costs in present-day billing.  At least one of the local major utilities will not persue it's new nuclear plant without a partner.  The present day billing may give the utilities more security for the finance companies to back a new plant.  I still do not see it happening even with this added incentive.  I hope I'm wrong, but so far it all seems to be smoke and mirrors.

[ihadmail]

Supposedly the utility I work for has secured 1/2 of the funding for their proposed new nuclear. The other 1/2 will come from rate increases. They definately just recieved a permit from the state to begin pre-construction activities: excavating, restructuring roadways, etc. I think they may actually be building a new unit so long as our upcoming political situation does not put a stop to it.
 Just my .02 though

[sloughter]

One of the best statistics comes from the Sierra Club; they claim that there are 30,000 coal-related deaths every year. That works out to about 1,000,000 deaths to coal-related diseases during the past 35 years i.e about when the unofficial moratorium on nuclear power was declared. Anybody know how many people have died from the nuclear energy fuel cycle in the same period of time? I have incorporated this in an article I am writing called The Role of Nuclear Power in North America.

Interesting statistic: According to a recent World Health Organization Report, so far 23 years later, 40 people total have died because of Chernobyl, a plant with a tarpaper roof, just like American plants! By the way, I am a geologist and can state categorically that the "China Syndrome" has never occurred, could never occur and will never occur; it is great entertainment, lousy science.

I predict in my article with several large reactor complexes on Hudson Bay, it should be possible to bring in 1500-3000gigawatts of installed capacity in 100 years at a cost of 8c/kWh in constant dollars. Anyone wanting a preliminary copy of the article, feel free to get in touch.

The DOE has a great page that tracks the New construction process better than I can, see the link below.

http://www.nuclear.gov/np2010/neScorecard/neScorecard.html

[Jimmykroffa]

DTE Energy in SE Michigan applied for a license for FERMI 3.....

[Broadzilla]

DTE Energy in SE Michigan applied for a license for FERMI 3.....

Fermi3 will never be built.

[Jimmykroffa]

True. With the decreased load from the closing of the auto plants, and the push for energy efficiency the need for it will probably never be there. Also DTE's cost to build Fermi 2 really put a hurting on their finances when it was being built. I don't think they are prepared to take on that financial burden given the current state of the economy.

[Broadzilla]

Regardless of the economy DTE is too bottom line of a company to build another Nuke. If they told the Shareholders they were going to pat them 3 dollars a share and in building a nuke they could pay only 2.99999999 a share they simply won't do it. There's nothing wrong with that by the way as their purpose in life is to make money for the shareholders. IIRC the first so many utilities that ask for a license are going to get some sort of tax break or incentive for even considering it. DTE is a small utility and any breaks they can get are welcome.

Mike

[MeterSwangin]

New nuke is dead.

Requires 3 vital ingredients:  1) massive funding from credit markets, 2) stong enough customer demand to persuade Wall Street to invest, and 3) timely government review and approvals.

That is clearly oh-for-three.  Credit markets are on life support, demand is in the crapper, and the NRC has a 10-year plan to start the 3 year CLA reviews...but is too dysfunctional to issue wet tissue.

Oh, and about the ultimate bogie; Yucky Mountain.

fuggetaboutit.

[Adam Grundleger]

Makes me wonder:  How many license extensions will the current plants be granted?  Seeing as the entire plant is replaced part by part several times over the proposed forty year lifetime, it would seem justifiable to extend current plant life nearly indefinitely.  The current round of license extensions seems to support this.  At least a few plants will be operating when eighty years old...

Besides, once the grid reaches a certain critical point of overload/undersupply there will be no choice but to build new plants.  Once it becomes less fashionable to push the fallacy of wind/solar/biomass/nonsense, there will be only a couple of options left: nuke, coal, or gas. 

I'm more worried that the longer we wait to build, the fewer experienced new construction veterans will be around and the fewer domestic manufacturers will still be in the nuke business.  Do you really want to work at a plant labeled, "Made in China?"  Having first hand experience with receipt of Chinese materials and products, that possibility scares me.   

[HydroDave63]

At least a few plants will be operating when eighty years old...

No Rx vessel has operated more than 40 years, and even with extension won't exceed 60 years. Annealing would likely be required past that point due to fast neutron embrittlement.

Some European experience on this topic is found here

[Marssim]

Makes me wonder:  How many license extensions will the current plants be granted?  Seeing as the entire plant is replaced part by part several times over the proposed forty year lifetime, it would seem justifiable to extend current plant life nearly indefinitely.  The current round of license extensions seems to support this.  At least a few plants will be operating when eighty years old...

Besides, once the grid reaches a certain critical point of overload/undersupply there will be no choice but to build new plants.  Once it becomes less fashionable to push the fallacy of wind/solar/biomass/nonsense, there will be only a couple of options left: nuke, coal, or gas. 

I'm more worried that the longer we wait to build, the fewer experienced new construction veterans will be around and the fewer domestic manufacturers will still be in the nuke business.  Do you really want to work at a plant labeled, "Made in China?"  Having first hand experience with receipt of Chinese materials and products, that possibility scares me.   

Many, if not most of the canisters for dry spent fuel are from Japan,...

Areva (French) makes the new fuel,....

New vessels will most likely not be fabricated in the US as that skillset has pretty much evaporated from the American industrial infrastructure,....

The future you fear is already here,...

The quick answer to any future "crisis" is coal,....

[Adam Grundleger]

I know many of the components we source currently are foreign (German, French, Korean, Japanese), but many are of good quality.  It's the historically dishonest suppliers (China and much of Eastern Europe) that bother me.  Regarding Rx vessels, I wouldn't be surprised to see lots of new options (including annealing and changes to the regulations) to keep current plants operating. 

What about new construction personnel?  Almost all the people I've worked with with any new-con experience are pushing the retirement envelope and many others are fast approaching it.  There are a lot of unrecorded experiences that would be invaluable during the assembly of a new plant.  I've heard horror stories about the mistakes made in the '70s and '80s during the last go-around, and I'm in no hurry to repeat them.   True, the new designs are supposed to be simpler and more practical to assemble, but any misstep these days will be catastrophic to a new project.  The window to act before the construction workforce ages away and is restaffed with greenhorns is going to close soon. 

I really see a future of rolling blackouts and hundred year old plants pushing electrons if things don't turn around.  That or a new wave of coal plants, which nobody outside of a mining community wants. 

[Preciousblue1965]

I know many of the components we source currently are foreign (German, French, Korean, Japanese), but many are of good quality.  It's the historically dishonest suppliers (China and much of Eastern Europe) that bother me.  Regarding Rx vessels, I wouldn't be surprised to see lots of new options (including annealing and changes to the regulations) to keep current plants operating. 

What about new construction personnel?  Almost all the people I've worked with with any new-con experience are pushing the retirement envelope and many others are fast approaching it.  There are a lot of unrecorded experiences that would be invaluable during the assembly of a new plant.  I've heard horror stories about the mistakes made in the '70s and '80s during the last go-around, and I'm in no hurry to repeat them.   True, the new designs are supposed to be simpler and more practical to assemble, but any misstep these days will be catastrophic to a new project.  The window to act before the construction workforce ages away and is restaffed with greenhorns is going to close soon. 

I really see a future of rolling blackouts and hundred year old plants pushing electrons if things don't turn around.  That or a new wave of coal plants, which nobody outside of a mining community wants. 

it is almost as if you work for a company that deals with new construction standards of nuclear power plants and the requirements for how stuff has to be built.  Amazing.  Oh and the autoclave company you left is missing you.

[Adam Grundleger]

Yes, amazing.  There are a lot of shops in Atlanta missing me, but Wolf Creek sure is happy to see me.  Just in time for the workup prior to the fall outage, too. 

And, yes, codes and standards work gives a very different perspective on the situation.  It cuts a different cross section than almost any other role in this business.  An ANII is in no way important to plant operation, but almost every aspect of plant schedule affects how the inspection work goes down.  Between covering the material receipt, handling, welding, NDE, changes to the code and NRC NUREGs, etc., there's a whole different view than from a supplier shop or from the plant personnel.  Not better, just different.     

The point I was trying to make is that if the utilities don't find a way to get off the fence and break ground while there are still Americans in the nuclear manufacturing and assembly business then we as an industry either will need to reinvent our manufacturing and assembly ability or outsource the whole darn thing.  It's bad enough looking at material certifications written half in pictographs.  The first time I see welding documents written that way will be the last.

[withroaj]

...

Once it becomes less fashionable to push the fallacy of wind/solar/biomass/nonsense, there will be only a couple of options left: nuke, coal, or gas. 

...

I don't think we'll actually turn to nuclear power as a mainstay until we run out of butterflies and baby dreams to Repower America. 

By the way, good to hear you've been successful post-Navy.  I envy people of your intelligence and adaptability.  L-ville y'all.

[HydroDave63]

 Once it becomes less fashionable to push the fallacy of wind/solar/biomass/nonsense,    

That day is still far off.... you can see the brand new wind farm Duke is building west of Cheyenne, WY, "green" stimulus money included....with the turbines made by SUZLON in India 

[withroaj]

That day is still far off.... you can see the brand new wind farm Duke is building west of Cheyenne, WY, "green" stimulus money included....with the turbines made by SUZLON in India 

I've got some family friends cashing in on those WY wind farms near Elk Mountain (turns out thousands of acres of windswept cow pasture can be put to use for more than shooting prairie dogs and coyotes) and in my recent road trip to Iowa I saw a few hefty wind farms out in the corn and soybean fields.  Wyoming certainly has plenty of open, windy space to hold tons of wind turbines; and I'd love to buy some land in/around the Saratoga (WY, not NY) hobo pool area just in case geothermal takes off.

I still think that you can't beat nuclear when it comes to MWe/acre.  For example:  Horse Hollow vs Turkey Point (I think I used these two stations in support of this same argument last year, so I figured it'd save me some poking around).

[SSBN640Blue]

Everything you want to know about new nukes is on the NRC website here:
http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors.html
The yellow box on the left of the page has good charts and maps.

Everything you want to know about License Renewal and Power Up Rate is on NRC website here:
http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/ql-reactors.html
Scroll down to the LICENSING section in the table.

[ddm502001]

I was out in Washington State last fall, saw the big wind farm outside of Ellensburg but that power can't come to the NE or make much difference to the midwest as it is being used locally.  Wind farms are arising in Iowa and Nebraska but the immense area they need for a few hundred mw is astounding as is the maintenance on these marvels, I have heard they leak lubricants everywhere requiring monthly shutdowns for inspection; a large station of a few hundred units could be a high dollar fiasco.

[ddm502001]

I wanted to add, our second unit at Callaway seems to be done, that is it won't be coming to fruition.  The company has decided the power is not currently needed and they have stopped all work on the COLA selling the large forgings back to Areva.  There is hope among the managers that Unistar will pick up where Ameren has dropped out but that seems unlikely.

With the loss of so much manufacturing in the US we may be revisiting the decline of nuke of the 80's.  There is just too little funds available to build these multi-billion dollar monsters.  With that there is now the specter of carbon cap & trade, the loss of major dirt burners along with canceled nukes may mean more rolling black/brown outs.

[Content1]

When people find themselves cold (global warming hoax) and in the dark from brownouts and taxed to death (literally, death taxes end this year but comes back with a vengeance as the Bush tax cuts expire) and capped and traded taxes start in the Nuclear Option may suddenly look better.  One can only hope at this time the current bunch of left wingers will be voted out this year before the next successful terrorist attack and before our economy collapses.   Start buying your gold and silver, it may be the only currency of value the government cannot print on demand.