A few questions

[MMM]

Here's a link to the spreadsheet for the last five years. http://www.tsp.gov/rates/monthly-tsp-factsheet.pdf

[spekkio]

Thrift Savings Plan return:  +17% gain over the last 12 months.
Reference:  http://www.tsp.gov/rates/monthly-current.html

Here's the easy trick:  when you think the market is tanking, switch your TSP into a conservative Bond fund.   When the economy is about to rebound, shift back into small capital, etc (i.e., riskier funds).  

After the recession last year (negative growth for the country), the savings rates haven't caught up yet...for a variety of reasons that can be found in the financial circles of the Internet (i.e., off topic in Nukeworker).

If you're going to disagree with every post I make this week, you can save us and the readers time by providing a few references for your "facts", or contribute to the discussion by adding your perspective other than "I disagree" and walking away.

Co60

Your post does not refute anything I said.

In order to get the 17% gains, you would have to be putting your money into one of the 3 riskier categories in TSP from March 2009 to present; these same riskier categories are the ones that lost 50% of their value in mid '08-early '09. So I stand by what I said: if you're going to dump money into a risky account and forget it, you are at a high risk of posting a loss. And if you put it in the safe accounts and/or savings accounts, you would have gained approximately 1-3% on your money, which is less than inflation. While I agree that it doesn't take an economic guru to shift money around depending on what you think the economy will do this month, TSP isn't the huge money-maker you make it out to be, and if you were to put $10,000 in a savings account to use it 5 years from now, it would be worth much less even after interest if current economic trends continue.

On another note, you shouldn't take disagreement so personally. I do not know you as a person, nor am I insulting your character.

[co60slr]

You make money by getting out before your fund tanks, and then getting back in when it recovers.    If you shifted your money out of riskier funds in 2008 and then put them right back in 2009, you would be in great shape.   Otherwise, you broke even.

Where did I say TSP was the greatest 401K fund out there?

I'm not taking anything personally.  I'm happy to help you out.  :-)

[HydroDave63]

Although I do agree with ya 95% of the time....

You make money by getting out before your fund tanks, and then getting back in when it recovers.    If you shifted your money out of riskier funds in 2008 and then put them right back in 2009, you would be in great shape.   Otherwise, you broke even.

That's not good advice...how is someone going to get the premonition, Magic 8 Ball or remote viewing to know when their fund will tank??!? Even Bob Brinker's Markettimer wouldn't claim to tell exactly when to dump. Heck, I have even done as you said twice before, during the NASDAQ dump in 2000, and the March 2008 slide, but I'd never claim that I know for certain when someone else should make a huge portfolio move.

Using MMM's link above, one can find the 10 year compounded return on the TSP's rock solid G Fund was 4.62% . Not losing money is another form of making money. At least that's what Warren Buffett had to say about it.

[co60slr]

Although I do agree with ya 95% of the time....

That's not good advice...how is someone going to get the premonition, Magic 8 Ball or remote viewing to know when their fund will tank??!? Even Bob Brinker's Markettimer wouldn't claim to tell exactly when to dump. Heck, I have even done as you said twice before, during the NASDAQ dump in 2000, and the March 2008 slide, but I'd never claim that I know for certain when someone else should make a huge portfolio move.

Using MMM's link above, one can find the 10 year compounded return on the TSP's rock solid G Fund was 4.62% . Not losing money is another form of making money. At least that's what Warren Buffett had to say about it.

As Marissm said, there is no risk-free investment.   As Spekkio illustrated, if you're making 4.0% interest during 4.0% inflation, then you're breaking even.  My ONLY point is do NOT fall in love with your investments.   When I shift, when you shift, when Marissm shifts investments is the interesting part.

Using the DJIA as an example, take a look at 2000-2004.
http://www.google.com/finance/historical?cid=983582&startdate=Jan+1%2C+2000&enddate=Jul+6%2C+2004
When did I shift money, when did you shift money, when did Marissm shift money?   If we all had shifted from the riskier small capital funds in 2000-2001 era...maybe at a predetermined "drop" in the DJIA after one quarter of data, and then shift back when we thought we hit "rock bottom" (circa 2003), then 2004 was a pretty good year.

What happened here?  Everyone fell in love with their high tech/Internet investments. 

Same with the next dip.  If you called it around July 4th, 2008, and then shifted back at the "valley", then you would have minimized your loss and maximized (17%) your gains in 2009-2010.
http://www.google.com/finance/historical?cid=983582&startdate=Jan+1%2C+2008&enddate=Jul+6%2C+2010

What happened here?  Well, a mess that continues to be debated daily in the GM: PolySci section.  I'm not going there.  :-)

"Buy Low, Sell High" isn't bad advice...it's how the game is played!   However, I think we can all agree that in the end it feels like you're in Las Vegas as you try to predict the peaks and valleys.   I know some people that waited until the DJIA was headlines news (i.e., record lows) to shift their money.  Then, they checked their 401K every day and wrung their hands.  Finally, when the market recovered, they put their money back.  That is backwards...Sell Low, Buy High? 

That's also what happened to real estate in 2005 to date.  How many Navy sailors bought in 2005 and took a huge loss when the detailer said they HAD to transfer in 3 years?   I think the bubble was obvious (and I rented at the time).  Prices are likely to return to what they have for 100 years, an overall modest increase:
http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/

So, I don't think there's a right and wrong here...although I'm disappointed I'm 5% over towards your bad side. <grin>  These paragraphs are very easy to write...in hindsight.  But what about 2010 to 2015?  Great question.  There are different investment strategies though as you illustrate a very conservative one, which is not bad advice at all.

In any event, I wish the Navy did a better job of educating young sailors before putting $50K in their hands.  I think we can all agree that a 2010 sports car is NOT an investment!  :-)  In fact, a graph showing the loss you take during an average deployment (not using the car, making high payments) would be educational.

[HydroDave63]

So, I don't think there's a right and wrong here...although I'm disappointed I'm 5% over towards your bad side. <grin>  These paragraphs are very easy to write...in hindsight.  But what about 2010 to 2015?  Great question.  There are different investment strategies though as you illustrate a very conservative one, which is not bad advice at all.

That will be a great idea for a GM:General thread on investment strategies/picks for 2010-2015! As long as it doesn't get TOO silly we should be fine...see ya there!

[LaFeet]

NFCU doesn't charge ATM fees at 7-11.  I'm pretty sure it applies to all 7-11 locations, but it may be just a regional thing around here (Virginia).  Anyone care to confirm this?

Additionally, if you go to almost any Credit Union the ATM fees are waived for NFCU accounts.  I still have my NFCU as my primary account even though I dont work near them or have one at home.

[spekkio]

Co,

I agree that knowing when to buy and when to sell is key to making money; where I disagree is that people who are Navy Nukes generally don't have business degrees, and even the ones who do generally do not have the time to spend on following and analyzing market trends accurately enough to make calculated risky investments rather than just plain risky investments. Then there are underway periods where you are almost completely isolated from the market. I bet there's a Sailor underwater somewhere who has bought stock in BP and has no idea they are hemorrhaging oil into the Gulf. Hell, even people who are paid to follow market trends get it wrong at times.

You point at many situations where people could have mitigated loss if they knew that the market area was going to crash; the problem is that no one knows exactly when this is going to happen. Once it starts happening, then people have to fight the psychology that "I had X, now I have Y, I'll leave it in in case I come back to X and then cash out." It's the same reason why people can go to a casino, win a couple grand, and still walk out broke.

A $50k sports car is not an investment by any means, but if one were to take advantage of the 0% interest deals offered in '08 and bought one instead of buying stock that lost 1/3-1/2 its value or placing it in a savings account so that it can lose value due to inflation, the sports car was the smarter choice.

[DDMurray]

A $50,000 sports bought bin 2008 car will be worth about 15,000 in five years.   If you took the payments on the 0% loan of $50,000 ($833.33) and put them in an average mutual fund (8% gain)for 5 years and then stopped, after 25 years you'd have $342,424. 

[DDMurray]

A $50,000 sports bought bin 2008 car will be worth about 15,000 in five years.   If you took the payments on the 0% loan of $50,000 ($833.33) and put them in an average mutual fund (8% gain)for 5 years and then stopped, after 25 years you'd have $342,424. 

Oops, the actual number is based on a lump sum of 50,000 invested.  If he invested 10,000 a year for five years and stopped, then waited 20 more years, he'd have around $295,313.

In any case, the important things are:
1.  Start early
2.  Pick a low risk fund with proven performance (5-10 years minimum)
3.  Pay yourself instead of the banks or department stores
4.  Learn from others' mistakes (like me)

[co60slr]

A $50k sports car is not an investment by any means, but if one were to take advantage of the 0% interest deals offered in '08 and bought one instead of buying stock that lost 1/3-1/2 its value or placing it in a savings account so that it can lose value due to inflation, the sports car was the smarter choice.

As suggested/authored by HydroDave, I replied in the GM:General section under the newly established thread discussing "Investments: 2010-2015."

The bad news Spekkio is that our advice is no longer free.  It'll cost you $36.50/year to see the reply in the Gold Member Section.   However, you'll still have $49,963.50 for your sports car.     

For our OP's here Getting In, a thought:  listen to Derek (et al).   Start early, do your own research, figure out what works best for you.   Most of you will likely end up with a sports car and then regret it in 20 years.   This seems to be the "way of the Nuke".   

Co58