Is There Any Hope Left For Nuclear Energy?

[Marlin]

Is There Any Hope Left For Nuclear Energy?



http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2015/02/20/is_there_any_hope_left_for_nuclear_energy_108297.html

[GLW]

Is There Any Hope Left For Nuclear Energy?



http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2015/02/20/is_there_any_hope_left_for_nuclear_energy_108297.html

Let me help you with some numbers for consideration (nuclear power plants contributing to the grid):

First - Some 10,000 foot numbers;

  •   Licensed in 1950's   3
  •   Licensed in 1960's   19
  •   Licensed in 1970's   59
  •   Licensed in 1980's   47
  •   Licensed in 1990's   5
  •   Licensed in 2000’s   0
  •   Licensed in 2010’s   0

       o   Shuttered in 1950's      0
       o   Shuttered in 1960's      7
       o   Shuttered in 1970's      7
       o   Shuttered in 1980's      6
       o   Shuttered in 1990's      9
       o   Shuttered in 2000's      0
       o   Shuttered in 2010's      5
         
Of the remaining plants on the grid;

   •   <10 YO              0
   •   10-20 YO           1
   •   20-30 YO           31
   •   30-40 YO           31
   •   >40 YO              36
   •   Total on Grid       99

       o   Licensed in 1960's   2
       o   Licensed in 1970's   48
       o   Licensed in 1980's   44
       o   Licensed in 1990's   5
       o   Licensed in 2000's   0
       o   Licensed in 2010's   0

               #   Average Age in Years       34            
               #   Median Age in Years         36   

         
Of the shuttered plants;

   •   Total Shuttered                    34
   •   Total Shuttered w/ISFSI's      22

       o   Average Age in Years     18            
       o   Median Age in Years       17

for all the talk of a renaissance the BWRs and PWRs of the past do not seem to be gaining any traction whatsoever, and the number of perfectly good nuclear power plants relegated to the dust bin of economic nonviability keeps growing,...

https://www.nukeworker.com/forum/index.php/topic,12381.msg186194.html#msg186194

plus the spectre of the 2016 final rules are pending,...

there are some glimmers, such as this one:

Texas company offers to take nuclear waste for interim storage

http://www.reviewjournal.com/politics/government/texas-company-offers-take-nuclear-waste-interim-storage

but keep in mind the current administration at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue orchestrated the flawless backdoor lawyer method to shelve Skull Valley without ever having to take the public and principled stand that they are anti-nuke,....

I expect Texas may have a better hand to play than Skull Valley did, unless some Austin centric politicos take over in the state houses and gov's mansion,...

there may be some future in thorium and salt reactors,...

after there is a public flagellation of the current BWR/PWR portfolios as being "bad" nuclear power as opposed to the "good" nuclear power promised by thorium/salts and perhaps even more research billions (or is it trillions by now?) for fusion,...

ah well, we'll see,....

almost forgot (sic),.... 4 beercort,...

[mjd]

In the US, on the energy side... no, on the waste side...yes thanks to half life. On the new builds, I give WB2 a 50/50. If they finish, make it through HFT and power ascension test to 100%, without an unforeseen equipment failure problem from long-term hold, they should be OK mechanically... but. The AP1000s right now make me nervous. The whole nuke industry has bet the future on their success. Everyone is watching and waiting. Everybody knows the deal, what will be final cost and on what final schedule. And I see history repeating from the '80s; they can't seem to get their arms around the QA problem. That was the source of all the "walk aways" in the '80s, and is the largest player in final cost and schedule. It is a tough nut to crack, due mainly to no nuke new construction for 30 years. The whole work force is just not used to working under what may be seen as a "paper" problem. It is a paper problem that can pull your plug. I think they are grasping the magnitude, but don't know how to fix it (or are afraid to take the required action). What needs to be done will kill the cost and schedule.