Did Tesla Just Kill Nuclear Power?

[Marlin]

Did Tesla Just Kill Nuclear Power?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2015/05/01/did-tesla-just-kill-nuclear-power/

[Marlin]

This article is less opinion and more fact based.

Elon Musk’s Grand Plan to Power the World With Batteries

http://www.wired.com/2015/05/tesla-batteries/

[desertdog]

If you are planning to use these, don't ever let your place get cold or you better have an alternate power source to heat it. You ever try to use a LI battery in the cold?

[HydroDave63]

There isn't enough lithium on this planet plus the next one, to handle the total amount of energy storage required for this green-pie-in-the-sky idea. SpaceX and Tesla have not yet turned profitable, so despite Mr Prettyboy and his hourly press conferences, I expect this (bad) idea to go the way of Enron, for much the same reasons.

[SloGlo]

There isn't enough lithium on this planet plus the next one, to handle the total amount of energy storage required for this green-pie-in-the-sky idea.

witch brings into play robotic mining of hour solar system.

[Marlin]

There isn't enough lithium on this planet plus the next one, to handle the total amount of energy storage required for this green-pie-in-the-sky idea. SpaceX and Tesla have not yet turned profitable, so despite Mr Prettyboy and his hourly press conferences, I expect this (bad) idea to go the way of Enron, for much the same reasons.

Not so rare at 0.0017% that's a big number when compared to the mass of the earth, and then there is that space mining thing, I am sure Mr Musk is looking at. 

http://periodictable.com/Properties/A/CrustAbundance.v.log.html

[Marlin]

Why Tesla’s New Energy Battery Won't Replace Your Local Utility

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13137324/1/why-teslas-new-energy-battery-wont-replace-your-local-utility.html

[HydroDave63]

So how many kilos of refined lithium are required to store, oh, say 20-30 kWh for a home (8 hr peak shaving scenario for summer when you have a/c start and refrigerator cycling) . Multiply by 50 million houses in US alone. USGS estimates global reserves at 13.5 million tons. That is plenty if you are only using it in expensive laptop batteries and uber-expensive sports cars. Not nearly enough if every yuppie across the planet tries to install one.

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2015-lithi.pdf

This is right up there with hafnium-powered cars. Cool tech, but not actually feasible on macro scale.

[Marlin]

So how many kilos of refined lithium are required to store, oh, say 20-30 kWh for a home (8 hr peak shaving scenario for summer when you have a/c start and refrigerator cycling) . Multiply by 50 million houses in US alone. USGS estimates global reserves at 13.5 million tons. That is plenty if you are only using it in expensive laptop batteries and uber-expensive sports cars. Not nearly enough if every yuppie across the planet tries to install one.

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2015-lithi.pdf

This is right up there with hafnium-powered cars. Cool tech, but not actually feasible on macro scale.

From your citation:

"World Resources: Identified lithium resources in the United States total 5.5 million tons and approximately 34 million
tons in other countries. Identified lithium resources for Bolivia and Chile are 9 million tons and more than 7.5 million
tons, respectively. Identified lithium resources for major producing countries are: Argentina, 6.5 million tons; Australia,
1.7 million tons; and China, 5.4 million tons. In addition, Canada, Congo (Kinshasa), Russia, and Serbia have
resources of approximately 1 million tons each. Identified lithium resources for Brazil total 180,000 tons."

...and this is identified sources how much would be found if demand required it? Let's not forget space mining.   

...How much lithium required per KW is a good question as only the anode in the battery is a lithium compound in a lithium battery.

[HydroDave63]

From your citation:

"World Resources: Identified lithium resources in the United States total 5.5 million tons and approximately 34 million
tons in other countries. Identified lithium resources for Bolivia and Chile are 9 million tons and more than 7.5 million
tons, respectively. Identified lithium resources for major producing countries are: Argentina, 6.5 million tons; Australia,
1.7 million tons; and China, 5.4 million tons. In addition, Canada, Congo (Kinshasa), Russia, and Serbia have
resources of approximately 1 million tons each. Identified lithium resources for Brazil total 180,000 tons."

...and this is identified sources how much would be found if demand required it? Let's not forget space mining.   

...How much lithium required per KW is a good question as only the anode in the battery is a lithium compound in a lithium battery.

Space is a great place to find platinum group metals and virtually the only place we are likely to find significant quantities of iridium. Lithium is relatively abundant on the Moon, but with no water available for conventional leaching separation, processing will be highly expensive on an Energy Return On Investment basis. Hauling back and re-entering ore that is mostly silicates is a waste, and hauling water to the Moon to start the process would be pricy as well.

When space mining is actually feasible and not a company run by the Muskrat, I'll gladly buy shares. I don't want to own stock in a company cratering its facilities by repeatedly trying to recover the first stage at the expense of human safety.

[Marlin]

Tesla's New Battery Doesn't Work That Well With Solar


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-06/tesla-s-new-battery-doesn-t-work-that-well-with-solar

[Marlin]

Tesla's Battery Grabbed $800 Million in Its First Week


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-08/tesla-s-battery-grabbed-800-million-in-its-first-week

[HydroDave63]

No-money-down signups? Heck, I should go order 10 MW worth right now and go get a PPA to be a home-based PURPA defined QF. Yeah, baby, yeah!


[spoiler]

[/spoiler]

Not bashing Marlin, just the Muskrat for loving to give press conferences. Meanwhile they are still losing over 2 dollars per share...

[Marlin]

No-money-down signups? Heck, I should go order 10 MW worth right now and go get a PPA to be a home-based PURPA defined QF. Yeah, baby, yeah!


[spoiler]

[/spoiler]

Not bashing Marlin, just the Muskrat for loving to give press conferences. Meanwhile they are still losing over 2 dollars per share...

   He spends a lot of money in research, if he hits even one of his goals I suspect he will be profitable, but I am with you on the risk factor short term. He is frequently compared to Edison if he lives up to that his stock will eventually pay off.



Media mogul Rupert Murdoch's publishing efforts in the United States
began in 1973, and did not turn a profit until 1983.

ESPN began in 1979, and did not turn a profit until 1985 due to more
cable viewers and the desire on the part of the advertisers to reach
this audience.

Sports Illustrated" was first published in 1953, and
remained unprofitable until 1964.

The robot manufacturer Unimation was founded in 1956, and did not make
a profit until 1975.

Aircraft manufacturer Airbus took 20 years to turn a profit.

The World Trade center did not turn a profit until it was 20 years old.

http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=425412

[HydroDave63]

   He spends a lot of money in research

Right now it looks like "research...in diluting shareholder value"

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/13/investing/tesla-stock-sale-musk/index.html?iid=ob_homepage_deskrecommended_pool&iid=obnetwork

[Marlin]

I believe that the new Power Wall with an unlimited power cycle and a declining cost of his new roof may make a dent in the grid in the next decade. The glass roof tile looks like a game changer from its endurance, efficiency, and aesthetics.

No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-31/no-one-saw-tesla-s-solar-roof-coming

[hamsamich]

Good article.  I'll need a new roof in about 20 years.  Maybe the batt/roof combination will be worth all the $$$$ hassle and hubbub then.  Maybe.

[Bonds 25]

Now, if only he can figure out a way to rid the planet of clouds, rain and stop the earth from rotating. My great vision is a very small Nuclear Reactor in my basement that never needs to be refueled and will power my home (24 hours a day.....no matter what) for 80 years. The carbon footprint of my Ferrari collection will be acceptable due to this great innovation.

[Marlin]

Now, if only he can figure out a way to rid the planet of clouds, rain and stop the earth from rotating. My great vision is a very small Nuclear Reactor in my basement that never needs to be refueled and will power my home (24 hours a day.....no matter what) for 80 years. The carbon footprint of my Ferrari collection will be acceptable due to this great innovation.

 

Maybe a small reactor buried in the back yard (big back yard    ), they exist now.    But only economical if you share with a few thousand of your neighbors.


http://www.foxnews.com/story/2008/11/12/portable-nuclear-hot-tubs-could-power-america.html

[Bonds 25]

See, that's A LOT cooler than putting stupid solar shingles on your house that......that look like shingles. This is why I believe Musk is just a straight arrow nerd who wants the world to think he is cool.

On the cool scale:

Nuclear Power>>>>>>>>>>>>>solar

[GLW]

See, that's A LOT cooler than putting stupid solar shingles on your house that......that look like shingles. This is why I believe Musk is just a straight arrow nerd who wants the world to think he is cool.

On the cool scale:

Nuclear Power>>>>>>>>>>>>>solar

                                                                                                            Musk IS NOT Stark

   

although I suspect Musk thinks he might be,....

but then, upon further scrutiny,...

NOT,....

Tesla Fails to Refute IER’s Powerwall Article

aka

Tesla’s Incredible Shrinking Powerwall Warranty

http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/tesla-fails-to-refute-iers-powerwall-article

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/07/02/teslas-incredible-shrinking-powerwall-warranty/

[Marlin]

                                                                                                            Musk IS NOT Stark

although I suspect Musk thinks he might be,....

but then, upon further scrutiny,...

NOT,....

Tesla Fails to Refute IER’s Powerwall Article

aka

Tesla’s Incredible Shrinking Powerwall Warranty

http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/tesla-fails-to-refute-iers-powerwall-article

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/07/02/teslas-incredible-shrinking-powerwall-warranty/

Is that an evaluation of the Powerwall or Powerwall 2? From the article.

The Powerwall 2 may be the cheapest lithium ion battery for the home ever made when deliveries start in January. Tesla is selling the batteries at retail prices that are cheaper than the average manufacturing cost at most companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. We "certainly expect it will move the market prices downwards as we saw last year with the first Powerwall," said Yayoi Sekine, a BNEF analyst who covers battery technology.

[GLW]

Is that an evaluation of the Powerwall or Powerwall 2? From the article.

The Powerwall 2 may be the cheapest lithium ion battery for the home ever made when deliveries start in January. Tesla is selling the batteries at retail prices that are cheaper than the average manufacturing cost at most companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. We "certainly expect it will move the market prices downwards as we saw last year with the first Powerwall," said Yayoi Sekine, a BNEF analyst who covers battery technology.

Tesla does not differentiate between the PW & PW2 in their downloadable warranty, only by part number:

https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/powerwall/Powerwall_Warranty_USA_2-0.pdf

needs more V&V?!?!?!

and yet, must be the lawyers are involved as it may not be comprehensive or easy and you will only really know after some dedicated scrutiny as to what is what,...

to wit: exactly the type of challenge nuclear types revel in, exactly the type of BS other people find frustrating and onerous, and exactly the type of shell game that people who push product and hype as a means to the money will hide behind,...

the company may be called Tesla, but the company has no consistency with the altruist who was Tesla,....

[Marlin]

Tesla does not differentiate between the PW & PW2 in their downloadable warranty, only by part number:

https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/powerwall/Powerwall_Warranty_USA_2-0.pdf

needs more V&V?!?!?!

and yet, must be the lawyers are involved as it may not be comprehensive or easy and you will only really know after some dedicated scrutiny as to what is what,...

to wit: exactly the type of challenge nuclear types revel in, exactly the type of BS other people find frustrating and onerous, and exactly the type of shell game that people who push product and hype as a means to the money will hide behind,...

the company may be called Tesla, but the company has no consistency with the altruist who was Tesla,....

Warranty aside the Powerwall 2 has overcome some of the issues with performance of the battery. Major drawback on the original was a limited number of power cycles. I would expect that there will be continued improvement in performance and cost.

[GLW]

Warranty aside......

really?!?!?!?

a 6 grand plus investment and the warranty does not matter?!?!?!

okee dokee then,....

...... I would expect that there will be continued improvement in performance and cost.

in all things except commercial fusion power, that does seem to be the case,...

eventually the fun part of "gettin off the grid" is that the government begins to see that loss of revenue and finds new and creative ways of getting it back ala electric cars, hybrid cars and ultra fuel efficient cars:

(the conservative estimate to pay off the solar roof powerwall combo is 38 years, I doubt it will take the governments(s) 38 years to figure out how to levy a "solar use tax")


Electric-Car Owners Get Taxed for Not Paying Gas Taxes

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-06-06/electric-car-owners-get-taxed-for-not-paying-gas-taxes


These U.S. States Charge Electric Car Fees To Make Up For Lost Gas Tax Revenue
http://insideevs.com/u-s-states-charge-electric-car-fees-make-lost-gas-tax-revenue/

[Marlin]

really?!?!?!?

a 6 grand plus investment and the warranty does not matter?!?!?!

A warranty is not a tech spec.

in all things except commercial fusion power, that does seem to be the case,...

eventually the fun part of "gettin off the grid" is that the government begins to see that loss of revenue and finds new and creative ways of getting it back ala electric cars, hybrid cars and ultra fuel efficient cars:

(the conservative estimate to pay off the solar roof powerwall combo is 38 years, I doubt it will take the governments(s) 38 years to figure out how to levy a "solar use tax")


Electric-Car Owners Get Taxed for Not Paying Gas Taxes

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-06-06/electric-car-owners-get-taxed-for-not-paying-gas-taxes


These U.S. States Charge Electric Car Fees To Make Up For Lost Gas Tax Revenue
http://insideevs.com/u-s-states-charge-electric-car-fees-make-lost-gas-tax-revenue/

We are talking about home batteries not car batteries with the Powerwall.

Projected cost curve from the article, no gas taxes involved:

[GLW]

...Projected cost curve from the article, no gas taxes involved:

it is late and you are not comprehending:

the position was that when the consumer finds a way to remove themselves from the government's revenue stream the governemnt will eventually take notice and bring the consumer back in,....

within the last decade it was electric cars, etc., easing the consumer off gas taxes and the government coming back in with targeted electric car fees (aka taxes),...

in future decades as consumers ease themselves off the grid with powerwalls, solar roofs, etc. then the government will bring those consumers back in,...

in the case of electric cars the consumer has an investment of only a few years to assess wether the new government taxes are a detriment to be foregone in future purchase decisions,...

in the case of electric houses, a 38 year commitment means pretty much a lifetime of your new tax regime,...

e.g.

Average Electric Utility Costs
Power Costs: 49%
Distribution Expenses 6%
Administrative Expenses 9%
Depreciation 12%
Taxes and Fees 11%
Investment Financing 11%

http://www.puc.state.or.us/consumer/Understanding%20Your%20Electric%20Bill.pdf

[Marlin]

it is late and you are not comprehending:

the position was that when the consumer finds a way to remove themselves from the government's revenue stream the governemnt will eventually take notice and bring the consumer back in,....

within the last decade it was electric cars, etc., easing the consumer off gas taxes and the government coming back in with targeted electric car fees (aka taxes),...

in future decades as consumers ease themselves off the grid with powerwalls, solar roofs, etc. then the government will bring those consumers back in,...

in the case of electric cars the consumer has an investment of only a few years to assess wether the new government taxes are a detriment to be foregone in future purchase decisions,...

in the case of electric houses, a 38 year commitment means pretty much a lifetime of your new tax regime,...

e.g.

Average Electric Utility Costs
Power Costs: 49%
Distribution Expenses 6%
Administrative Expenses 9%
Depreciation 12%
Taxes and Fees 11%
Investment Financing 11%

http://www.puc.state.or.us/consumer/Understanding%20Your%20Electric%20Bill.pdf

So when the cost halves as projected, the taxes will be onerous Not a convincing argument. Not to mention the decline in subsidies for these kind of start-up technologies lessening the loss of revenue. I think I comprehend just fine   





 

[GLW]

....Not a convincing argument....

it's not an arguement,...

it's a statement:

to wit: sellers advertising to consumers that the consumer can offset initial new technology costs becuase the new technology will forego the taxes incurred from established energy sources, is all a short term foregoance,...

as the taxman gets accustomed to the game of predicting what taxes will be lost from which technologies, the taxman creates the new tax structure all the quicker,...

not an arguement, an observation,...

[Marlin]

it's not an arguement,...

it's a statement:

to wit: sellers advertising to consumers that the consumer can offset initial new technology costs becuase the new technology will forego the taxes incurred from established energy sources, is all a short term foregoance,...

as the taxman gets accustomed to the game of predicting what taxes will be lost from which technologies, the taxman creates the new tax structure all the quicker,...

not an arguement, an observation,...

   Still sounds like an argument unless you can verify it is a universal rule. What is the unique revenue stream that will be imposed by the government? Will they tax the reduction of use? Still not convincing, sounds more like generalization that could be applied to any product with reduced tax revenue which does not happen. If there is a revenue recovery I suspect it would be from another source as it is and will be encouraging renewables for some time.


 


 

[GLW]

   Still sounds like an argument unless you can verify it is a universal rule. What is the unique revenue stream that will be imposed by the government? Will they tax the reduction of use? Still not convincing, sounds more like generalization that could be applied to any product with reduced tax revenue which does not happen. If there is a revenue recovery I suspect it would be from another source as it is and will be encouraging renewables for some time.


 


 

okay, it's an arguement,...you win,....

[Marlin]

okay, it's an arguement,...you win,....

Darn, I was sure this one would last longer. 

[GLW]

Darn, I was sure this one would last longer. 

u2funny,...

[Shhnight]

As a current Solar Power Plant technician, solar power could easily replace Nuclear power however it will never happen. There are just too many politics involved for any sector to be eliminated. Our plant produces 550 MW, but is continuously being curtailed due to lack of consumer loading. The same issue exists at other plants nearby. With so much solar not being utilized and so much on the horizon it is entirely conceivable to be the primary source of power. Fortunately for nuclear power and other energy companies, our country is run by politicians owned by corporations.

[GLW]

As a current Solar Power Plant technician, solar power could easily replace Nuclear power however it will never happen. There are just too many politics involved for any sector to be eliminated. Our plant produces 550 MW, but is continuously being curtailed due to lack of consumer loading. The same issue exists at other plants nearby. With so much solar not being utilized and so much on the horizon it is entirely conceivable to be the primary source of power. Fortunately for nuclear power and other energy companies, our country is run by politicians owned by corporations.

The three US based solar facilities which put those MW numbers on the grid are in SoCal,...

the combined capacity of 1650MW was built with about 5.3 billion in DOE loan guarantee (3.2mil/MW),...

loan guarantees for 2000MW of nuclear is about 6.5 billion (3.25mil/MW),...

which makes solar competitive in SoCal,...

not so much in the U.P. or the receiving end of Hurricane Alley?!?!?!?

and not in Hawaii either, we're talking a minimum of 20 square miles for 1650MW,...

and Oahu needs to be able to call on 1300MW all the time and firm,...

and on Oahu, if it's not already built upon, it most likely never will be,...

maybe the Big Island, but those pesky volcanoes tend to ruin the best laid plans of mice and men,...

1959



2009



and those kinds of billions will always make these industries political,...

[Marlin]

As a current Solar Power Plant technician, solar power could easily replace Nuclear power however it will never happen. There are just too many politics involved for any sector to be eliminated. Our plant produces 550 MW, but is continuously being curtailed due to lack of consumer loading. The same issue exists at other plants nearby. With so much solar not being utilized and so much on the horizon it is entirely conceivable to be the primary source of power. Fortunately for nuclear power and other energy companies, our country is run by politicians owned by corporations.

True without subsidies solar would not be economical. Where does that power come from at night?

[Marlin]

I'm not running out to buy any of this but I can see it in the not too distant future. I'd rather be cautious and always let another run ahead. 

Tesla’s solar roof rollout was ... meh. These other new solar power gadgets are cooler.

http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2016/10/31/13469846/tesla-solar-roof-solpad-solarwindow

[Bonds 25]

Shhnight.....ironic name BTW considering youre in the solar business. Thank you for the comedy read, I needed that. The politicians against solar bit was pure gold.

[Bonds 25]

The three US based solar facilities which put those MW numbers on the grid are in SoCal,...

the combined capacity of 1650MW was built with about 5.3 billion in DOE loan guarantee (3.2mil/MW)

1650 MW.....nameplate megawatts. The old trickeroo that the unreliables people pull. Lets see, what does a 1650 nameplate megawatt source of power produce at a ~20% capacity factor........

[hamsamich]

"Other companies like Dow have actually attempted solar panels that double as rooftop shingles before and wound up crashing against the hard realities of cost and efficiency and market competition."

http://theweek.com/articles/659093/why-teslas-solar-roof-better-lot-cheaper-than-sounds

This had some more numbers basically calling Tesla a wish-washy FS.  These roofs have already been out and haven't made money because they are too expensive.  The only thing that could change the game are the costs for the roof and the battery, and the price just isn't there.  It is coming down but why would anybody buy these unless they were very rich and lived far away from the grid?  And if this stuff is truly going to be so much better and cheaper 10 years from now, why would I want it now?  Thanks Tesla, please let me buy power for .37 cents a KWH or more now with power from the grid costing about .14.  I think I'll wait and if it really is that much cheaper and better then all my neighbors will have it, that will be the proof in my pudding.  Maybe rich people in Hawaii are loving this since their power is about .4  but probably not.

To me Hawaii is the real proving ground for solar because energy prices are so high out there.  If ANY solar roof/batt combo is more than marginally worth it's price HI will let us know when a majority of its houses go solar and disconnect from the grid.  HI has a small grid and good conditions for solar so it can't support so many solar houses connected to its grid.  It is a real problem out there.  If these roof/battery combos are the bomb then HI should devour them.  If not there is your answer.

[Marlin]

"Other companies like Dow have actually attempted solar panels that double as rooftop shingles before and wound up crashing against the hard realities of cost and efficiency and market competition."

http://theweek.com/articles/659093/why-teslas-solar-roof-better-lot-cheaper-than-sounds

This had some more numbers basically calling Tesla a wish-washy FS.  These roofs have already been out and haven't made money because they are too expensive.  The only thing that could change the game are the costs for the roof and the battery, and the price just isn't there.  It is coming down but why would anybody buy these unless they were very rich and lived far away from the grid?  And if this stuff is truly going to be so much better and cheaper 10 years from now, why would I want it now?  Thanks Tesla, please let me buy power for .37 cents a KWH or more now with power from the grid costing about .14.  I think I'll wait and if it really is that much cheaper and better then all my neighbors will have it, that will be the proof in my pudding.  Maybe rich people in Hawaii are loving this since their power is about .4  but probably not.

To me Hawaii is the real proving ground for solar because energy prices are so high out there.  If ANY solar roof/batt combo is more than marginally worth it's price HI will let us know when a majority of its houses go solar and disconnect from the grid.  HI has a small grid and good conditions for solar so it can't support so many solar houses connected to its grid.  It is a real problem out there.  If these roof/battery combos are the bomb then HI should devour them.  If not there is your answer.

All true but many products start too expensive for most people and end up after improved process, design, and increases in sales volume they became more available to most consumers. Pretty much the same for his electric cars, people who buy them are a little better off and even though it is not that practical yet it is a prestige buy.

[hamsamich]

Yes, but it just seems like Tesla is being purposefully vague on how much this stuff costs today.  There are plenty of great things in the world that are out of reach for the middle class that aren't touted as world saving godsends.  Just like Tesla's roof and power-wall.  Maybe it will be someday.  Not today and probably not next decade.  Skews people's views on renewable power and all the lemmings just jump on board railing against all the things that actually keep us living to the degree we've become accustomed to.

[Marlin]

Yes, but it just seems like Tesla is being purposefully vague on how much this stuff costs today.  There are plenty of great things in the world that are out of reach for the middle class that aren't touted as world saving godsends.  Just like Tesla's roof and power-wall.  Maybe it will be someday.  Not today and probably not next decade.  Skews people's views on renewable power and all the lemmings just jump on board railing against all the things that actually keep us living to the degree we've become accustomed to.

Agree, it is not in reach of most people and probably won't be for a few years to a decade. He may be vague because he is still in development, the article did say there were some more changes to occur prior to release next year. There are also the subsides that he gets for all of his projects SpaceX etc. to the tune of $2.9 billion dollars, he may be trying to hang on to the innovation investment/subsidy band wagon.

[GLW]

.....To me Hawaii is the real proving ground for solar because energy prices are so high out there.  If ANY solar roof/batt combo is more than marginally worth it's price HI will let us know when a majority of its houses go solar and disconnect from the grid.  HI has a small grid and good conditions for solar so it can't support so many solar houses connected to its grid.  It is a real problem out there.  If these roof/battery combos are the bomb then HI should devour them.  If not there is your answer.

nope,....not happening,....

simple statistics,...

the home ownership rate in the US of A is down to the low 60 percentiles and dropping,...

Hawaii is even lower, by eight to ten percent on the latest numbers, depending on your variables,...

no landlord is going to trust the good stewardship of a capital expenditure as expensive and stewardship intensive as solar infrastructure to a tenant, excepting very high end tenants, but definitely NOT middle class or less,...

I've been a landlord, emphasis on BEEN, no way jose,...

after the crap I have seen tenants capable of?!?!?!?!?

solar panels on the roof, worth how many hundreds to some sorta fence in some sorta back alley rented storage unit?!?!?!

Powerwall batteries and inverters worth thousands of dollars in reclaimable lithium?!?!?!?

not happening brother, no how, no way,....

hell, the government will not install this stuff in their housing projects for the very same reasons,....

solar powered housing freeing the grid of thousands of MW demands?!?!?!?

until home ownership is running in the high eighties that is not a strong economics projection,....

homeowners may go solar, LONG TERM homeowners are much more likely to go solar,...

BOTH of the foregoing are not the societal norm so much anymore,....

THAT's why the government offers all those crazy tax incentives,....

short term gains for short term homeowners are what makes solar attractive for near term purchase,...

the only way to "subsidize" solar other than those tax incentives (which are national credit card incentives) will be to mandate solar in new construction and penalize existing units which do not have solar,...

watch for that to be coming down the 'pike, dressed up as "being a good citizen vis a vis environmental and climate stewardship",...

bad citizen's must pay,...

[hamsamich]

well let me rephrase mr attorney.  when the percentage of homeowners who live at home goes into the majority for solar/batt in HI then I will believe some of the hype.  HI pays about 3 times as much for grid power as you and I so if solar/batt is a good thing I think it would happen in HI first.  right now they are at about the top for solar power production per capita due to this.  Nevada and CA is up there too but HI is limited due to grid constraints and they cap the number of people allowed to be on the grid and use solar, or it would be even higher.  So my point is if the batt/roof combo is so vluable HI should be the first to pump it up since the grid issue won't be a factor for those not on it.   There are people angry in HI because they aren't allowed to connect to the grid with a solar system until approved.  Supposedly already 12% of households have solar as of 2015 in HI and many more are waiting....One other thing that throws a wrench into all this when comparing to the rest of the US is HIs low energy use due to mild climate.  they use a little more than half as much as the rest of us....let your imagination run wild on the affect this would have on HIs appetite for solar/batt combo.  I can think of a bunch of reasons for and against...  If the grid gets on board and doesn't charge an arm and a leg for usage and approves those waiting then all this goes out the window....basically if there are places where the power is at an exorbitantly high price and the utility isn't on board with residential solar this makes a testube for this product...right now HI is the only one that has both of these in place, a couple of states are running a distant 2nd at 17 cents per kwh while HI is 34 (i just looked it up to get the correct prices).  we will see how it goes...


I guess the point is this is GRID vs Battery and there are plenty of reasons not to get the battery including being a landlord.  although many places in HI are high end with high end stuff and large deposits.  plus an apartment complex with a maintenance guy might be even better at maintaining this system than some homeowners.

I don't think it will happen, but not just because HI has a few more landlords than the rest of the US.  HI is a testube for solar right now because of the high electric prices so yes, it's not overwhelmingly taking root there or anywhere but if it does anywhere it will be HI unless something changes there due to triple electricity rates vs the rest of the US.  Triple...wow.

[GLW]

well let me rephrase mr attorney......

all valid, keep somethings in mind,...

12%,....

a smidge over 50% of Hawaii households are owned homes,....

15 to 20 % of Hawaii homeowners are rich,....

really rich, that's why they live in Hawaii,...

that's why they want solar,...they can afford the installation,....

living in Hawaii is very different,...

I know,...

when drawing aprallels to the rest of the US of A one has to consider a lot of different perspectives,....

solar and batteries SHOULD be a good fit for Hawaiii as a personal investment and as a marketed grid,...

but how to fund it, maintain it, site it, etc.,....

well, that's where things in Hawaii get fuzzy,....

[hamsamich]

True!  interesting place little testing ground.   if things don't give at 3.3x the national average for power prices on a large scale it aint happenin anywhere.  ive had this convo with a couple renewable zealots and they didn't even know about Hawaii and its importance.  funny.  kinda like the people that hate nuclear and don't know the earth had natural underground nuclear reactors a billion yrz ago.

[Ksheed]

when drawing aprallels to the rest of the US of A one has to consider a lot of different perspectives,....

What are you drawing? Is that some kind of indigenous species only found in Hawaii? 

[Marlin]

Agree, it is not in reach of most people and probably won't be for a few years to a decade. He may be vague because he is still in development, the article did say there were some more changes to occur prior to release next year. There are also the subsides that he gets for all of his projects SpaceX etc. to the tune of $2.9 billion dollars, he may be trying to hang on to the innovation investment/subsidy band wagon.

Someone did a cost estimate without Tesla's help and yeah it looks like a luxury item for now.

Here's How Much Tesla's New Solar Roof Could Cost

http://www.consumerreports.org/roofing/heres-how-much-teslas-new-solar-roof-shingles-could-cost/

[hamsamich]

I pay about 2000 bucks a year for electricity.  Looking at those numbers and keeping in mind the price of solar and battery is supposed to fall far in the next decade it would be a no brainier to me not to do it.  I guess for people that have the money and want to look cool and environmentally sound to their neighbors it would be just delicious.

[GLW]

What are you drawing? Is that some kind of indigenous species only found in Hawaii? 

why yes it is,...

it's the tooqwikeetypeegottagettoapplb ees bird,...

[Rennhack]

Depreciation Credit   -2.06
Rate Realignment Surcharge/Credit   0.15
Renewable Energy Surcharge   0.86
Low-Income Energy Assistance Fund   0.96
Nuclear Decommissioning Surcharge   2.94
Energy Optimization Surcharge   4.08
Monthly Service Charge   7.25
State Sales Tax   11.94
Power Supply Cost Recovery   26.11
Delivery Services   56.45
Power Supply Services   202.63
Current Electric Charges Due   311.31


10/21/2016   311.31
9/22/2016   473.11
8/23/2016   452.46
7/26/2016   566.27
6/23/2016   417.79
5/24/2016   281.29
4/22/2016   303.24
3/23/2016   209.56
2/23/2016   -59.39
1/25/2016   412.14
12/22/2015   351.26
11/19/2015   258.67
 One Year Total: $3,977.71

[hamsamich]

wow.....to be fair I also pay about 700 a year for propane, but propane has been cheap recently....my electric bill usually won't go over 300 but never goes below 60.....  damm that nuclear decom charge must really burn yer britches. 

[GLW]

.....  damm that nuclear decom charge must really burn yer britches. 

not hardly,...

nuclear DnD has paid the bills at my house(s) for 21 of the last 25 years,...

[hamsamich]

yeah i was being ironical.  but that's none of my business

[Marlin]

Price curve bending down faster than expected

Price of Tesla’s solar shingles may not be through the roof

When Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveiled new solar shingles three weeks ago, the big question that wasn't answered was how much it would cost. Consumer Reports suggested the upfront cost could be upwards of $70,000, before incentives.

Now, Musk is saying the roof could cost much less. In fact, Musk said the company's solar roof - whose solar modules will be a key product made at the RiverBend solar panel factory when it opens next year - could wind up costing less than putting a conventional roof on a home.

http://buffalonews.com/2016/11/18/musks-solar-roof-may-not-pricey/

[hamsamich]

Smells musky to me.

[Marlin]

Smells musky to me.

Depends apun your point of view. 

[GLW]

Smells musky to me.

as in Edmund?!?!?!?!?,.....(sic)

[GLW]

Price curve bending down faster than expected

Price of Tesla’s solar shingles may not be through the roof

type

"elimination of retail net metering for solar power"

into your browser,...

that change is the wave of the future, it's already being done in Nevada and others,...

as I typed before:

eventually the fun part of "gettin off the grid" is that the government begins to see that loss of revenue and finds new and creative ways of getting it back ala electric cars, hybrid cars and ultra fuel efficient cars:

and also, "elimination of retail net metering for residential solar power",...

[Marlin]

type

"elimination of retail net metering for solar power"

into your browser,...

that change is the wave of the future, it's already being done in Nevada and others,...

as I typed before:

and also, "elimination of retail net metering for residential solar power",...

I think we had this discussion I didn't agree then either.


 


But then what would be the fun in that if I did 

[hamsamich]

oh yeah that fight has been coming for awhile. not just retail for net metering, there are fees proposed and all kinds of ways local gov and utilities are bucking rez solar.   that is why a good system with a battery could change everything.  no grid nesc.  I do see why they want some help paying for the infrastructure but some of the proposed fees look crazy.  a couple co-ops in IA and WI have proposed charges close to 90$ a month.  WOW!  looks like peeps in NV will be ok if they already had a system in place.  but new solar looking bad in NV.

[GLW]

oh yeah that fight has been coming for awhile. not just retail for net metering, there are fees proposed and all kinds of ways local gov and utilities are bucking rez solar.   that is why a good system with a battery could change everything.  no grid nesc.  I do see why they want some help paying for the infrastructure but some of the proposed fees look crazy.  a couple co-ops in IA and WI have proposed charges close to 90$ a month.  WOW!  looks like peeps in NV will be ok if they already had a system in place.  but new solar looking bad in NV.

"going off the grid" is a political stunt influenced by time, place and culture,...

as the pendulum swings it becomes easier to convince an ignorant (or brainwashed) electorate that persons "off the grid" are still wreaking environmental havoc, and should be assessed an "environmental impact" fee,...

so, there you are, self contained and self sufficient and only wanting to be left alone in some small but self important aspects of your existence,...

and then, the always revenue hungry government, convinces people living in the same county as you, but residing in a 28,000 population city that is 28 miles away from you, that you need to contribute and "share the pain" with an "environmental impact" fee,...

and then there were pension plans; for a fortunate few, for a golden moment in time, the American worker could show up to work, do a good job, and retire out with a decent pension and some years of quietly growing roses and guiding grandchildren,...

yeah, not so much anymore, not even an expectation; time, place and culture,....it's changed,...

[Marlin]

Price curve bending down faster than expected

Price of Tesla’s solar shingles may not be through the roof

When Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveiled new solar shingles three weeks ago, the big question that wasn't answered was how much it would cost. Consumer Reports suggested the upfront cost could be upwards of $70,000, before incentives.

Now, Musk is saying the roof could cost much less. In fact, Musk said the company's solar roof - whose solar modules will be a key product made at the RiverBend solar panel factory when it opens next year - could wind up costing less than putting a conventional roof on a home.

http://buffalonews.com/2016/11/18/musks-solar-roof-may-not-pricey/

Tesla solar roof prices come in cheaper than some had expected

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/tesla-solar-roof-prices-come-in-cheaper-than-some-had-expected/ar-BBAZrw8?OCID=ansmsnnews11

[GLW]

Tesla solar roof prices come in cheaper than some had expected

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/tesla-solar-roof-prices-come-in-cheaper-than-some-had-expected/ar-BBAZrw8?OCID=ansmsnnews11

I'm not seeing how it adds up, then again I'm pumping 72+ hours a week just now,...

from the referenced article:

....For Tesla, one of the obvious barriers to achieving that is cost. Previously, Consumer Reports had determined that a textured glass tile solar roof should cost no more than $73,500, including installation, to be competitive with an asphalt roof. That price factors in the about $2,000 a year a household would save on electricity bills in some of the country's more favorable solar markets, such as California, Texas and North Carolina.....

from DOE via NAHB:

http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/03/average-monthly-electrical-bill-by-state-2013/

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/

California average monthly electric bill - $90/mo X 12 = 1080/year

if you install a Tesla roof the electric company pays you 920 dollars per year?!?!?!

how is that a sustainable business model for an electricity generation operator?!?!?!?!?

[Marlin]

I'm not seeing how it adds up, then again I'm pumping 72+ hours a week just now,...

from the referenced article:

....For Tesla, one of the obvious barriers to achieving that is cost. Previously, Consumer Reports had determined that a textured glass tile solar roof should cost no more than $73,500, including installation, to be competitive with an asphalt roof. That price factors in the about $2,000 a year a household would save on electricity bills in some of the country's more favorable solar markets, such as California, Texas and North Carolina.....

from DOE via NAHB:

http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/03/average-monthly-electrical-bill-by-state-2013/

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/

California average monthly electric bill - $90/mo X 12 = 1080/year

if you install a Tesla roof the electric company pays you 920 dollars per year?!?!?!

how is that a sustainable business model for an electricity generation operator?!?!?!?!?

It's still out of the reach of most of us as the cost includes savings over the lifetime of the roof. A significant amount of cost reduction before it reaches general use due to upfront cost, but that has been the nature of many new technologies that have eventually become mainstream.

[SloGlo]

....For Tesla, one of the obvious barriers to achieving that is cost. Previously, Consumer Reports had determined that a textured glass tile solar roof should cost no more than $73,500, including installation, to be competitive with an asphalt roof. That price factors in the about $2,000 a year a household would save on electricity bills in some of the country's more favorable solar markets, such as California, Texas and North Carolina.....


California average monthly electric bill - $90/mo X 12 = 1080/year

yeah, love this $2k/year savings argument. my bill ain't as hi as the quoted cali rate. aye dew knot live in an optimum solar generation sight, butt eye haven't herd bout a brake on the install price. sew my tilt is still new clear.

[Marlin]

What happened to the Tesla solar roof?

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/what-happened-to-the-tesla-solar-roof/550942/

[Marlin]

Tesla’s new Solar Roof costs less than a new roof plus solar panels, aims for install rate of 1K per week

https://techcrunch.com/2019/10/25/teslas-new-solar-roof-costs-less-than-a-new-roof-plus-solar-panels-aims-for-install-rate-of-1k-per-week/

[hamsamich]

More like when you find a cruise on-line for 199.99, but the final total is 942.37.  I don't buy it.

[TVA]

More like when you find a cruise on-line for 199.99, but the final total is 942.37.  I don't buy it.

You realize thats an ignorant comparison right?

[Marlin]

More like when you find a cruise on-line for 199.99, but the final total is 942.37.  I don't buy it.

I think that declining cost is what is key here, not that there is a Moore's Law for solar but declining cost for technological products is the norm. Cost still too high for me but they have it down to the cost of a new roof and solar panels added which puts it in a price range for more people. Not sure there are any hidden costs as in your post.

[GLW]

High cost plus a dearth of design choices will still keep "normal" folks from buying this roof, the virtue signallers will buy it just as they bought a Prius to sit in the garage alongside the H2. It's a limited application roof, so if I have a standout Tudor style home with a chic correct slate roof for 545k and then down the street is another Tudor with a blaugh ugly Tesla roof for 526K, I'm buying the correct roof and I'll find other ways to prove my "environmental sensitivity" other than coming home to a blaugh ugly, frikin 5k per month Tudor, with a fat, bulky, gray, fake lookin' and fake it is, gawd dam where'd you get those fat ass ugly shingles, roof!!?!???!??.....


now.....a bunch of gov't subsidized Leviitt tract houses in the flatlands of Iowa?!?!?!?

yeah, they'll all be virtue signalling, gov't subsidized, blaugh ugly roof domiciles,.....

plus strip malls, empire zones, special economic zones and anywhere else that tax exemptions, rebates, subsidies, etc. are a better concern than aesthetics,....

you know, like she sheds,.....

[hamsamich]

You know what TVA, you are the last person to be calling somebody on here ignorant!  You ignore anything that shows you are wrong, and embrace anytime something shows you are right.  You really do remind me of a broken watch...exactly right TWICE a day.  Except you are more vocal about it when you are right.

As for Tesla, this guy's cons actually remind me of you.  He does the same thing to a point.  Although he has many pros you will never have.  The last 2 times he put out this roof he said the same types of things...cheap, groundbreaking,etc. etc...why should I believe him the third time?  I will never believe Tesla until his product is out there and has been used by AT LEAST tens of thousands of people.  Because he always pumps it up with alot of hot air.   The truth will be shown in how this roof fares when it comes out into the real world and we see how things go for a couple of years MINIMUM.  That is how it usually goes with "ground breaking" Tesla products.