The Way Humans Get Electricity Is About to Change Forever
(http://assets.bwbx.io/images/i5flURppnRR4/v1/-1x-1.jpg)
(http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iRALFgVWiKW8/v1/-1x-1.jpg)
Rooftop (small-scale) solar in yellow.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/the-way-humans-get-electricity-is-about-to-change-forever
Quote from: Rerun on Jun 24, 2015, 04:16
Not in our lifetime
Since the projection is to 2040 that is a possibility, not that your response is any more than trolling as usual.
Quote from: Marlin on Jun 24, 2015, 04:46
Since the projection is to 2040 that is a possibility, not that your response is any more than trolling as usual.
I'll see it (whatever the chance of it happening might be),... [coffee]
Quote from: Rerun on Jun 24, 2015, 04:16
Not in our lifetime
Quote from: Marlin on Jun 24, 2015, 04:46
Since the projection is to 2040 that is a possibility, not that your response is any more than trolling as usual.
So....I have a friend who knows a guy who has a friend that works in the industry....who says the most likely result is neither of these options. The problems being:
1. That big pretty yellow wedge for solar is science fiction. At $5/watt build cost vs. the average cost of residential electricity, it only pays for itself north of 12 cents/kWh residential within the expected lifetime of the equipment. Makes sense for Hawaii, not so much for Wisconsin. Hail skews the equation further to the left. Also, utility scale PV at current efficiency runs ~100 MW per square mile. The city-dwellers out there may think that covering the Southwest with PV is the way to go, but the Native tribes living there, endangered/protected species and rough terrain preclude that option.
2. Even though some politicians try to p
Reserve coal and others to
Destroy it, showing the curve slope downwards while Red China keeps the furnaces of Mordor using more coal than the rest of the planet combined https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption#Coal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption#Coal) is ludicrous. If anything, once the coal liquids industry (improved Davy process) picks up, the economic value of the coal may increase by a factor of 5-10.
3. Wind. Even though it has a lower build cost ~$2/watt, the cost of new transmission lines needed to send the power to places other than local niche ( i.e. forced by renewable mandates) markets is a looming ceiling.
Should we try to innovate and improve on what is out there, sure. But the breathless predictions of "about to change forever" is the kind of hype that resonates more with the hipsters posting about "disruptive tech", than us dinosaurs actually keeping the lights on at their local free wi-fi flavored coffee place.
Quote from: HydroDave63 on Jun 25, 2015, 08:32
1. That big pretty yellow wedge for solar is science fiction. At $5/watt build cost vs. the average cost of residential electricity, it only pays for itself north of 12 cents/kWh residential within the expected lifetime of the equipment. Makes sense for Hawaii, not so much for Wisconsin. Hail skews the equation further to the left. Also, utility scale PV at current efficiency runs ~100 MW per square mile. The city-dwellers out there may think that covering the Southwest with PV is the way to go, but the Native tribes living there, endangered/protected species and rough terrain preclude that option.
Current technology I agree but solar has an increasing efficiency and lowering cost similar to Moore's Law for computers so I tend not to agree.
Quote from: HydroDave63 on Jun 25, 2015, 08:32
2. Even though some politicians try to pReserve coal and others to Destroy it, showing the curve slope downwards while Red China keeps the furnaces of Mordor using more coal than the rest of the planet combined https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption#Coal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption#Coal) is ludicrous. If anything, once the coal liquids industry (improved Davy process) picks up, the economic value of the coal may increase by a factor of 5-10.
Money talks and with severe health issues from smog and other air pollutants I tend to agree with those who project cleaner energy sources in China. Couple that with Solar Moore's Law tomorrow is another day.
(http://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.newsweek.com/files/styles/headline/public/2014/01/21/china-pollution.jpg?itok=1z5yYP0w)
Quote from: HydroDave63 on Jun 25, 2015, 08:32
3. Wind. Even though it has a lower build cost ~$2/watt, the cost of new transmission lines needed to send the power to places other than local niche ( i.e. forced by renewable mandates) markets is a looming ceiling.
Wind, the bird Cuisinart of power production, does not show that much increase in projected power share. There is not a large projection of increased efficiency and lowered cost so I agree.
Quote from: HydroDave63 on Jun 25, 2015, 08:32
Should we try to innovate and improve on what is out there, sure. But the breathless predictions of "about to change forever" is the kind of hype that resonates more with the hipsters posting about "disruptive tech", than us dinosaurs actually keeping the lights on at their local free wi-fi flavored coffee place.
That is just the title, the meat of the article is projection of power production by source up to 2040. I tend to think it will improve and if Solar persists on the curve it has been on there is room for optimism.
Quote from: Marlin on Jun 25, 2015, 09:14
.......... Wind, the bird Cuisinart of power production, does not show that much increase in projected power share. There is not a large projection of increased efficiency and lowered cost so I agree.
how soon we forget (our own posts and our own witticisms),...
Torching Birds With Killer Death Rays Quote from: Marlin on Feb 15, 2014, 02:42
We already have Cuisinarts for birds I suppose a death ray is the logic progression.
************************************************************
Taxpayer-Funded Solar Farm Reportedly Torching Birds With Killer Death Rays
"The intense heat created by the thousands of mirrors, which can reach nearly 1,000 degrees Fahrenheit, appears to be incinerating birds that fly near the towers.
Over the past few months, the scorched carcasses of dozens of dead birds have littered the grounds around the Ivanpah plant, Brightsource, which is based in Oaklandm Calif., said.
Sources involved in the projected originally estimated that some birds would be killed, but they had not counted on so many.
Federal biologists noted that the birds appeared to have singed or burned feathers."
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/02/14/taxpayer-funded-solar-farm-reportedly-torching-birds-with-killer-death-rays/
Quote from: GLW on Jun 26, 2015, 08:15
how soon we forget (our own posts and our own witticisms),...
Torching Birds With Killer Death Rays
The solar I was talking about was solar panels not solar farms. The big increase that the article talks about is roof top solar and I don't see a solar/steam power unit there. The "Solar Moore's Law" I mention refers to panels as well. I don't see a future for the solar farms eventually the public will no longer tolerate the environmental impact especially on raptors at the top of the food chain.
Quote from: Marlin on Jun 26, 2015, 09:13
The solar I was talking about was solar panels not solar farms......
Okay, but I'm not a mind reader,...
the article:
Quote from: Marlin on Jun 24, 2015, 04:02
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/the-way-humans-get-electricity-is-about-to-change-forever
includes a downloadable report,....
if you download the report and read it the report points to APAC as being the largest growth sector for the "new energies",...
and APAC is the biggest growth and user segment for solar farms:
Largest solar plant in Australia approved in QueenslandThe largest proposed solar farm in Australia, and possibly the world...http://www.solidworksapac.com/?p=545
Here's Why Apple Is Building Solar Farms in ChinaApple just agreed to back two large solar farms in China. It's the biggest deal of its kind for a U.S. company operating in China. For China, the deal is only a beginning....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/here-s-why-apple-is-building-solar-farms-in-china
and the list of solar farms new construction projects in APAC goes on,...
Quote from: Marlin on Jun 26, 2015, 09:13
....I don't see a future for the solar farms eventually the public will no longer tolerate the environmental impact especially on raptors at the top of the food chain.
the Chinese public (APAC) is sending tigers into extinction status for the purpose of mixing fertility and enhancement concoctions using dried tiger penis,...
the Chinese public (APAC) is sending various bear species into extinction status for the purpose of mixing longevity concoctions using bear gall bladders,...
the Chinese public (APAC) is fishing the worldwide shark population into oblivion to make soup out of less than 2 percent of each sharks biomass, the rest is dumped to the bottom of the ocean,...
I don't see your intolerant public happening vis a vis solar farms and raptors,...
Quote from: GLW on Jun 26, 2015, 09:55
Okay, but I'm not a mind reader,...
From the article, seems pretty clear to me.
"3. The Revolution Will Be Decentralized
The biggest solar revolution will take place on rooftops. High electricity prices and cheap residential battery storage will make small-scale rooftop solar ever more attractive, driving a 17-fold increase in installations. By 2040, rooftop solar will be cheaper than electricity from the grid in every major economy, and almost 13 percent of electricity worldwide will be generated from small-scale solar systems.
$2.2 Trillion Goes to Rooftops by 2040 "
Quote from: Marlin on Jun 26, 2015, 10:09
From the article, seems pretty clear to me.
"3. The Revolution Will Be Decentralized
The biggest solar revolution will take place on rooftops. High electricity prices and cheap residential battery storage will make small-scale rooftop solar ever more attractive, driving a 17-fold increase in installations. By 2040, rooftop solar will be cheaper than electricity from the grid in every major economy, and almost 13 percent of electricity worldwide will be generated from small-scale solar systems.
$2.2 Trillion Goes to Rooftops by 2040 "
did you think that maybe there is some spin that goes past the numbers in that Item 3.?
here's the number for decentralized solar in 2040 - 13%
here's the numbers today:
Coal = 39%
Natural gas = 27%
Nuclear = 19%
Hydropower = 6%
Other renewables (includes solar, currently at 0.4%) = 13.9% Petroleum = 1%
Other gases < 1%
I'm not seeing much more out of Bloomberg than "buy solar",...
which is nice, unless fusion comes to the fore and blows subsidized solar into the buggy whip category,...
I can't get hyped about solar because for the span of my adult life solar has been constantly hyped,...
in the 1980's my home had a solar recirculator,...
the installation costs were subsidized by tax break incentives (aka national debt liabilities), and the total return to net zero was never realized for the three years I was there,...
and the new buyers wanted it removed from the house and repairs made to the installation space prior to sale as it was not aesthetic,...
that was not subsidized,...
and it's always something new and better with solar,...
and the older technology versions never break even without subsidy,...
and so, buying solar is a lot like buyng a car,...
AISI anyways,...
Enjoy the Solar Day!!!!
GLW 8)
Quote from: GLW on Jun 26, 2015, 10:22
and it's always something new and better with solar,...
Why yes, yes there is ;) cheaper solar cells, more efficient cells, incorporation into windows, solar roofing tiles, better storage technologies etc. etc. I think that is the basis for projections.
;D
[coffee]
I've been reading articles about "small scale" applications of solar and wind energy since the early 1960's - and it ain't happened yet. There must be some sort of fundamental problem with these so-called energy sources. All I've seen to date is that they seem to be a great way to make money from the federal government . . . and they make the tree-huggers feel good about themselves.
Quote from: Rerun on Jun 26, 2015, 02:18
I can reduce all that to not in our lifetime
You seem to be able to reduce any conversation on any subject to a myopic self-aggrandizing talking point.
Quote from: Rerun on Jun 26, 2015, 02:18
I can reduce all that to not in our lifetime
Quote from: Marlin on Jun 26, 2015, 02:34
You seem to be able to reduce any conversation on any subject to a myopic self-aggrandizing talking point.
Key word: Reduce. To lessen or make smaller. To bring down to a lower rank, dignity, etc.
Yeah, that fits.
Quote from: Rerun on Jun 26, 2015, 02:18
I can reduce all that to not in our lifetime
okay, but I did not endure 8+ years of nuns smacking me with wooden compasses to get my English right to just sit on it and not use it later,...
nope, I earned my English stripes and I intend to flaunt 'em,....
the words that is,....as far as grammar and structure et al,..."Sister Immaculata can kiss my grits!!!!",...
ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL
Quote from: Chimera on Jun 26, 2015, 11:37
I've been reading articles about "small scale" applications of solar and wind energy since the early 1960's - and it ain't happened yet. There must be some sort of fundamental problem with these so-called energy sources.
their are all ways problems, and knot necessarily with the energy sources. twenty years ago, the problem with residential panels was efficiency; today that efficiency has increased to the point that storage is the current problem in the four front, panel efficiency has moved back in rank. engineering it doing it's thing, ala moore's law.
thirty years ago, residential use in suburban environs fore wind turbine generation had few problems, the technology hasn't changed much since then. the problem eye encountered with it was bureaucratic, because insuring against liabilities would devour any projection of saving. this has naught changed. if aye had a stream on my home site I wood look at hydro, butt i don't sew shan't.
Not in our lifetime is not a shot at you or anyone. It simply means not in our lifetime. An accurate assesment
Quote from: Marlin on Jun 26, 2015, 10:09
"3. The Revolution Will Be Decentralized
The biggest solar revolution will take place on rooftops. High electricity prices and cheap residential battery storage will make small-scale rooftop solar ever more attractive, driving a 17-fold increase in installations. By 2040, rooftop solar will be cheaper than electricity from the grid in every major economy, and almost 13 percent of electricity worldwide will be generated from small-scale solar systems.
$2.2 Trillion Goes to Rooftops by 2040 "
This is today with further cost reduction and building design who knows, I'm on the optimistic side again.
Five impressive integrated solar solutions for buildingshttp://www.architectureanddesign.com.au/features/list/five-impressive-integrated-solar-solutions-for-bui
Solar accounts for 1% of global electricity, how long will the next 1% take?
http://www.pv-tech.org/editors_blog/solar_accounts_for_1_of_global_electricity_how_long_will_the_next_1_take
"Solar Power Europe's Global Market Outlook for Solar power 2015-2019, which announced the 1% milestone, found that global solar capacity is now 178GW, which is 100 times more than it was 14 years ago.
GTM Research solar analyst Adam James told PV Tech that he expects global installed capacity to double by 2017. Thus, while it took 14 years to reach the 1% figure, solar will take just two years to reach close to 2%. However, James admitted that, in this case, GTM's forecasts are more optimistic than most competitors."
"James said that when you aggregate all of the smaller developing markets together, they will go from accounting for 1% of solar today to 17% over the next five years, marking a significant shift in the spread of the market."
when yew put that 17% with the giga-batteries in production and research, won can sea a shift coming.
Cheapest Solar Ever: Austin Energy Gets 1.2 Gigawatts of Solar Bids for Less Than 4 Cents
http://www.theenergycollective.com/stephenlacey/2245543/cheapest-solar-ever-austin-energy-gets-12-gigawatts-solar-bids-less-4-cents
[coffee]
Quote from: Marlin on Jul 02, 2015, 04:05
Cheapest Solar Ever: Austin Energy Gets 1.2 Gigawatts of Solar Bids for Less Than 4 Cents
http://www.theenergycollective.com/stephenlacey/2245543/cheapest-solar-ever-austin-energy-gets-12-gigawatts-solar-bids-less-4-cents
[coffee]
from the "not a panacea" perspective:
(something along the lines of climate change, the climate will always change, and electricity sources will always change,.........forever is a misappropriated absolute)
Rest in Peace: The Fallen Solar Companies of 2014http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Honoring-the-fallen-solar-soldiers
.....
2014
Bankrupt, closed
Areva's solar business (CSP) closed -- Suffering through a Fukushima-inspired slowdown in reactor sales, Areva exited its concentrated solar power business. Areva's solar unit consisted of the remains of the acquired startup Ausra.
HelioVolt (CIGS thin-film PV) closed -- HelioVolt was founded in 2001 and aimed to fabricate CIGS solar panels. Thirteen years and more than $200 million in VC later, HelioVolt had shipped no commercial product and finally admitted defeat. A thin-film expert offered this take: "Founded on the idea of a transfer process (FAST) which never worked, HelioVolt went to a two-step process and finally adapted co-evaporation. However, the co-evaporation process the firm decided to copy was that of Solibro -- using point sources and an upward deposition orientation -- something with severe limitations in manufacturing."
LDK (vertically integrated module builder) filed for bankruptcy
Masdar PV (a-Si) closed its SunFab-based amorphous silicon PV factory in Germany.
SolarMax (PV inverters) -- Swiss inverter maker SolarMax's parent firm, Sputnik Engineering, filed for insolvency.
Sopogy (small-scale CSP) closed -- Sopogy promised smaller-size CSP for the distribution grid or even the rooftop. The startup collected more than $35 million in VC and strategic financing from investors including Southern California Gas Company, 3M, Mitsui & Co., Kolohala Ventures, Enerdigm Ventures, Black River Ventures, Pierre Omidyar and TWC.
TEL (a-Si) withdrew from its a-Si solar business -- In 2012, the a-Si equipment division of Oerlikon was divested to Tokyo Electron (TEL) in a $275 million deal. In 2014, TEL withdrew from the PV panel production equipment business. Low efficiencies (below 11 percent), high costs, and cheap Chinese panels doomed a-Si and Oerlikon's effort.
Xunlight (a-Si) went bankrupt -- Xunlight was adept at winning tax credits and government grants but never commercialized its roll-to-roll a-Si BIPV technology.
Acquisition, sale
Emcore's CPV business -- Suncore acquired the remaining interest in Emcore's CPV business.
RSI (CdTe PV panels) sold to Chinese strategic -- RSI, a VC-funded cadmium telluride thin-film solar module startup formerly known as Reel Solar, was acquired by an undisclosed "Chinese strategic," according to the company's CEO. RSI employs an electroplating process that works at a lower temperature than First Solar's and allows the use of larger glass sizes with an electrodeposition technology "inherited from Monosolar." According to the CEO's viewpoint, larger glass sizes drive down installed costs.
Solar Junction (CPV semiconductors) sold to Saudi strategic -- Solar Junction raised more than $30 million from VC investors ATV, DFJ and NEA, but was sold to Saudi entity KACST and one of its investment arms, TAQNIA, according to sources close to the company. Solar Junction had developed record-setting triple-junction solar cells.
SAG Solarstrom, a bankrupt PV project developer, was sold to Shunfeng Photovoltaic, the owner of PV panel builder Suntech, in an $85 million deal. Germany's SAG Solarstrom ranked among the top ten of PV O&M providers in the world in 2013.
Watch list
Concentrated photovoltaic companies that are not SunPower, Soitec or Suncore
Concentrated solar power companies that are focused solely on CSP for utility-scale electricity
2009 to 2010
Bankrupt, closed, acquired
Advent Solar (emitter wrap-through Si) acquired by Applied Materials
Applied Solar (solar roofing) acquired by Quercus Trust
OptiSolar (a-Si on a grand scale) -- OptiSolar's utility projects were acquired by First Solar; its manufacturing line was sold to NovaSolar.
Ready Solar (PV installation) acquired by SunEdison
Solasta (nano-coaxial solar) closed
SV Solar (low-concentration PV) closed
Senergen (depositing silane onto free-form metallurgical-grade Si substrates) closed
Signet Solar (a-Si) bankrupt
Sunfilm (a-Si) bankrupt
Wakonda (GaAs) acquired by Siva
2011
Bankrupt, closed
EPV Solar (a-Si) bankrupt
Evergreen (drawn Si) bankrupt
Solyndra (CIGS) bankrupt
SpectraWatt (c-Si) bankrupt
Stirling Energy Systems (dish engine) bankrupt
Acquisition, sale
Ascent Solar (CIGS) acquired by TFG Radiant
Calyxo (CdTe) acquired by Solar Fields from Q-Cells
HelioVolt (CIGS) acquired by Korea's SK Innovation
National Semiconductor Solar Magic (panel optimizers) exited systems business
NetCrystal (silicon on flexible substrate) acquired by Solar Semiconductor
Soliant (CPV) acquired by Emcore
2012
Bankrupt, closed
Abound Solar (CdTe) bankrupt
AQT (CIGS) closed
Ampulse (thin silicon) closed
Arise Technology (PV modules) bankrupt
Azuray (microinverters) closed
BP (c-Si panels) exits solar business
Centrotherm (PV manufacturing equipment) bankrupt and restructured
CSG (c-Si on glass) closed by Suntech
Day4 Energy (cell interconnects) delisted from TSX exchange
ECD (a-Si) bankrupt
Energy Innovations (CPV) bankrupt
Flexcell (a-Si roll-roll BIPV) closed
Gadir Solar (a-Si PV) Spain-based customer of Oerlikon Solar closed
GlobalWatt (solar) closed
GreenVolts (CPV) closed
G24i (DSCs) bankrupt in 2012, re-emerged as G24i Power with new investors
Hoku (polysilicon) shut down its Idaho polysilicon production facility
Inventux (a-Si) bankrupt
Konarka (OSCs) bankrupt
Odersun (CIGS) bankrupt
Pramac (a-Si panels built with equipment from Oerlikon) insolvent
Pairan (Germany inverters) insolvent
Ralos (developer) bankrupt
REC Wafer (c-Si) bankrupt
Satcon (BoS) bankrupt
Schott (c-Si) exits c-Si business
Schuco (a-Si) shutting down its a-Si business
Sencera (a-Si) closed
Siliken (c-Si modules) closed
Skyline Solar (LCPV) closed
Siemens (CSP, inverters, BOS) divestment from solar
Solar Millennium (developer) insolvent
Solarhybrid (developer) insolvent
Sovello (Q-Cells, Evergreen, REC JV) bankrupt
SolarDay (c-Si modules) insolvent
Solar Power Industries (PV modules) bankrupt
Soltecture (CIGS BIPV) bankrupt
Sun Concept (developer) bankrupt
Acquisition, fire sale, restructuring
Oelmaier (Germany inverters) insolvent, bought by agricultural supplier Lehner Agrar
Q-Cells (c-Si) insolvent, acquired by South Korea's Hanwha
Sharp (a-Si) backing away from a-Si, retiring 160 of its 320 megawatts in Japan
Solibro (CIGS) Q-Cells unit acquired by China's Hanergy
Solon (c-Si) acquired by UAE's Microsol
Scheuten Solar (BIPV) bankrupt, then acquired by Aikosolar
Sunways (c-Si, inverters) bought by LDK, restructuring to focus on BIPV and storage
2013
Bankrupt, closed
Array Converter (Module-level power electronics) bankrupt, IP to VC investor
Avancis (CIGS) discontinuing production
Bosch (c-Si PV module) exits module business
Concentrator Optics (CPV) bankrupt
Cyrium (CPV semiconductors) bankrupt
Direct Grid (microinverters) closed
GreenRay (microinverters) closed
Helios Solar (c-Si modules) bankrupt
Hoku Solar (silicon) bankrupt
Honda Soltec (CIGS thin-film modules) closing
Infinia (Stirling engine CSP) bankrupt
Nanosolar (CIGS) closed
Pythagoras Solar (BIPV) closed
Solarion (CIGS) went bankrupt but restructured and in limited production
SolFocus (CPV) bankrupt
Sunsil (module level electronics) closed
Suntech Wuxi (c-Si) bankrupt
Tioga (project developer) closed
Willard & Kelsey (CdTe panels) bankrupt
ZenithSolar (CHP) bankrupt
Acquired
Agile Energy (project developer) acquired by RES Americas
Bosch (c-Si PV module) acquired by SolarWorld
Diehl (Germany inverters) inverter division sold to PE firm mutares AG
Conergy (c-Si module) -- Astronergy, a part of China's Chint Group, acquired Conergy's PV module manufacturing assets. Kawa Capital Management purchased the solar projects business.
GE-Primestar (CdTe technology acquired from PrimeStar) acquired by First Solar
Global Solar Energy (CIGS) acquired by Hanergy
Infinia (Stirling engine CSP) assets acquired by Israel's Qnergy
MiaSolé (CIGS) acquired by China's Hanergy
NuvoSun (CIGS) acquired by Dow
Suntech Wuxi (c-Si) acquired by Shunfeng Photovoltaic International for $492 million
Twin Creeks (kerfless Si) IP and other assets acquired by GT Advanced Technology
Wuerth Solar (installer) business turned over to BayWa
Wuerth Solar (CIGS line) taken over by Manz
ZenithSolar (CHP) acquired by Suncore
Quote from: GLW on Jul 02, 2015, 09:26
from the "not a panacea" perspective:
(something along the lines of climate change, the climate will always change, and electricity sources will always change,.........forever is a misappropriated absolute)
Who claimed a cure all ??? The original article showed solar as part of an ever changing mix of power production. Failure of many of the companies are probably linked to the feeding frenzy of government money Solyndra a prime example. This article cites a success story so I wonder about the applicability of your post. Government dabling in the market is a whole different subject for PolySci. My subsequent posts have simply shown the viablity of the "Moore Law" as it applys to future use of PV solar power.
Just sayin' [coffee]
Quote from: Marlin on Jul 03, 2015, 01:03
This article cites a success story so I wonder about the applicability of your post.
The article cites a power purchase agreement. Just a contract, not 1.5 square miles of PV panels. Much of the article's few numbers are based on projections, not delivered, installed, producing and years of failure-free service. Many of the past projects cited by GLW were also breakthrough success stories in their day....until either the factories failed to produce a single PV cell, or the concentrator thingie wasn't nearly as efficient as promised (so the supplier doesn't want to provide more collectors out of their pocket, and the customer doesn't have more land to install a larger number of less-efficient collectors), the third-party loans fails to materialize, 'the dog ate my homework', etc.
Great ideas fail for all sorts of reasons. Otherwise, we would be reading about Enron buying all of these solar projects, while typing away on our virus-free Kaypro computers running CP/M.
Quote from: HydroDave63 on Jul 03, 2015, 04:07
The article cites a power purchase agreement. Just a contract, not 1.5 square miles of PV panels. Much of the article's few numbers are based on projections, not delivered, installed, producing and years of failure-free service. Many of the past projects cited by GLW were also breakthrough success stories in their day....until either the factories failed to produce a single PV cell, or the concentrator thingie wasn't nearly as efficient as promised (so the supplier doesn't want to provide more collectors out of their pocket, and the customer doesn't have more land to install a larger number of less-efficient collectors), the third-party loans fails to materialize, 'the dog ate my homework', etc.
Great ideas fail for all sorts of reasons. Otherwise, we would be reading about Enron buying all of these solar projects, while typing away on our virus-free Kaypro computers running CP/M.
From the article apparently solar is too successful as they regret not waiting for cheaper bids I would call solar a success in this case and substantiation that Moore's Law is also applicable to solar PVs
"These bids are without question the cheapest bids ever seen in a utility solar solicitation," said Cory Honeyman, a senior analyst with GTM Research.
This price trend is a mixed blessing for developers and the utility. It shows that Austin Energy will be able to meet its 600-megawatt target with competitive PV resources. But Shalabi also said the company has "a little bit of buyer's remorse" when bids came down 20 percent after signing the 150-megawatt contract with Recurrent.
Yes, solar prices are coming down so quickly that a 5-cent contract can induce buyer's remorse.
This could cause delays for developers if Austin Energy cuts its procurement in 2015 in the hopes that solar prices keep dropping.
The future is bright I gotta wear shades. 8)
(http://www.middlewisconsin.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/sun-shades.jpg)
Quote from: HydroDave63 on Jul 03, 2015, 04:07
Otherwise, we would be reading about Enron buying all of these solar projects, while typing away on our virus-free Kaypro computers running CP/M.
Enron Plans Huge Solar Power Generation Plant 8)
https://www.questia.com/newspaper/1P2-5669411/enron-plans-huge-solar-power-generation-plant
Quote from: Marlin on Jul 03, 2015, 04:28
The future is bright I gotta wear shades. 8)
Just lemme know when you are posting using grid-disconnected rooftop solar with a Muskrat Tesla garage storage battery :P
Quote from: HydroDave63 on Jul 03, 2015, 04:53
Just lemme know when you are posting using grid-disconnected rooftop solar with a Muskrat Tesla garage storage battery :P
When that cost/power ratio meets my budget I shall. I must point out that the Tesla batteries are only designed as an emergancy backup and newer cheaper batteries will be required. ;)
[coffee]
So much for the offshore wind portion of that colorful yet misleading chart...
http://www.utilitydive.com/news/doe-backed-floating-wind-project-may-lose-funding-as-utilities-reject-power/401496/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Utility+Dive&utm_campaign=Issue%3A+2015-06-30+Utility+Dive+Newsletter#.VZMIp8tQdGE.linkedin (http://www.utilitydive.com/news/doe-backed-floating-wind-project-may-lose-funding-as-utilities-reject-power/401496/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Utility+Dive&utm_campaign=Issue%3A+2015-06-30+Utility+Dive+Newsletter#.VZMIp8tQdGE.linkedin)
DOE-backed floating wind project may lose funding as utilities reject power prices
Principal Power's WindFloat Pacific project, a 30 MW floating wind turbine pilot project planned off Oregon's coast, could lose its federal funding because Pacific Power and Portland General Electric, the state's two investor-owned utilities, have rejected its above-market power price.
The undisclosed requested price for the electricity from the Department of Energy-backed project could be as high as $0.16-$0.35 per kWh, Breaking Energy reports. The Oregon utilities wrote a letter to lawmakers that said the proposed rates are 3 to 4 times the price of onshore wind, which comes in at less than 5 cents per kWh.
Quote from: HydroDave63 on Jul 04, 2015, 02:26
So much for the offshore wind portion of that colorful yet misleading chart...
http://www.utilitydive.com/news/doe-backed-floating-wind-project-may-lose-funding-as-utilities-reject-power/401496/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Utility+Dive&utm_campaign=Issue%3A+2015-06-30+Utility+Dive+Newsletter#.VZMIp8tQdGE.linkedin (http://www.utilitydive.com/news/doe-backed-floating-wind-project-may-lose-funding-as-utilities-reject-power/401496/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Utility+Dive&utm_campaign=Issue%3A+2015-06-30+Utility+Dive+Newsletter#.VZMIp8tQdGE.linkedin)
DOE-backed floating wind project may lose funding as utilities reject power prices
Principal Power's WindFloat Pacific project, a 30 MW floating wind turbine pilot project planned off Oregon's coast, could lose its federal funding because Pacific Power and Portland General Electric, the state's two investor-owned utilities, have rejected its above-market power price.
The undisclosed requested price for the electricity from the Department of Energy-backed project could be as high as $0.16-$0.35 per kWh, Breaking Energy reports. The Oregon utilities wrote a letter to lawmakers that said the proposed rates are 3 to 4 times the price of onshore wind, which comes in at less than 5 cents per kWh.
OK wind did not show much if any increase over the span of the chart anyway.
Quote from: HydroDave63 on Jul 04, 2015, 02:26
So much for the offshore wind portion of that colorful yet misleading chart...
http://www.utilitydive.com/news/doe-backed-floating-wind-project-may-lose-funding-as-utilities-reject-power/401496/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Utility+Dive&utm_campaign=Issue%3A+2015-06-30+Utility+Dive+Newsletter#.VZMIp8tQdGE.linkedin (http://www.utilitydive.com/news/doe-backed-floating-wind-project-may-lose-funding-as-utilities-reject-power/401496/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Utility+Dive&utm_campaign=Issue%3A+2015-06-30+Utility+Dive+Newsletter#.VZMIp8tQdGE.linkedin)
DOE-backed floating wind project may lose funding as utilities reject power prices
Principal Power's WindFloat Pacific project, a 30 MW floating wind turbine pilot project planned off Oregon's coast, could lose its federal funding because Pacific Power and Portland General Electric, the state's two investor-owned utilities, have rejected its above-market power price.
The undisclosed requested price for the electricity from the Department of Energy-backed project could be as high as $0.16-$0.35 per kWh, Breaking Energy reports. The Oregon utilities wrote a letter to lawmakers that said the proposed rates are 3 to 4 times the price of onshore wind, which comes in at less than 5 cents per kWh.
It is nice to see market driven decisions though. ;)
Just read an article on a combined country European pilot program to test the feasibility of using batteries along with renewable power. Looks like KW-hr need to be near .30$ or higher for it to be worth it. The article says the tipping point may be 2020 for battery prices to close in. These are things that people pushing renewables on a large scale don't seem to take into account - variable timing of power production. It may be solved in the next 30 years but there is no slam dunk answer yet it seems. Hawaii could be another viable test bed due to high electricity prices there.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/05/us-utilities-grids-france-idUSKCN0PF06M20150705
Quote from: hamsamich on Jul 05, 2015, 12:08
..... Hawaii could be another viable test bed due to high electricity prices there.
don't count on it,...
the NIMBYs in Hawaii are fanatical,...
from indigenous folk claiming sacrilege anytime a hillside is drilled into, to naturalists decrying the loss of island species breeding habitat anytime a big solar project is proposed, to the surfers and tourist monies decrying the visionscapeblight of wind towers, the speed bumps and sinkholes to renewables in Hawaii are just about unfreakin' unbelievable,...
all poor verbage intended,...
Hawaii actually has one of the best shots at "renewable" sustainable,...
yet the stupid hue and cry from the NIMBYs of every persuasion carries the day,...
which is really stupid because nothing is "renewable",...
the sunlight you capture today is gone forever, sure the sun will keep burning for as long as any of us can imagine is necessary, but the sun is hardly "renewable", indeed the sun is burning out as we type,...
wind, geothermal, any of them, are all transient in terms of geological time and none of them answer to our whim as to when we need it, indeed the more primal the forces we attempt to harness and bend to our will, the more likely we are to encounter fundamental paradigm shifts which we can do nothing to influence,...
tectonic plates shift and the heat source for the world's largest geothermal power plant disappears just like that, all the infrastructure and money and jobs and dependance by upwards of millions of people shrugged off into nonrelevance by the equivalent of a tectonic plane scratching an itch, and with no more concern by the planet towards mankind's plight, than that by mankind towards an incidental gnat on his backside,...
also let me mention that every island in the Hawaiian island chain is landsliding back into the ocean ala pyroclastic deposit instability, which should persuade anyone who thinks to really wonder why anybody contends that some sacred totem must be maintained sacrosanct for all perpetuity at the cost of contemporary well being and quality of living,...
since Hawaiian Island perpetuity is a non-starter argument,...
I guess it makes the totem boosters feel important,...
well, that's nice,...
meanwhile, it's a good thing the climate is so mild, if it was like Pittsburgh, the wahines would be freezing to death for want of a means to pay the heating bill,...
you know what decisions people who have to worry about freezing to death make when faced with choosing between development and living or protectionism and dying?
look to Iceland,...
IIRC when the NIMBYs get all uppity in February about this, that or the other, the thinking people show them the door,...
it's about 10F outside the door,... [coffee]
anyway the price of electricity in Hawaii is much higher compared to most places in the U.S. so assuming the sun keeps burning and the islands don't slide into the ocean then it could be a viable market for more expensive batteries depending on the political situation there.
French renewables power grid pilot shows limits of batteries in Europe-Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/05/us-utilities-grids-france-idUSKCN0PF06M20150705 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/05/us-utilities-grids-france-idUSKCN0PF06M20150705)
And yet another positive article about reducing cost of solar this time Motley Fool. Money talks.
Solar energy revolution: Past point of no return
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/07/05/motley-fool-solar-energy/29583021/
hey great article ksheed! surprised no one posted it yet.
Quote from: hamsamich on Jul 06, 2015, 07:55
hey great article ksheed! surprised no one posted it yet.
[sarcasm] ;)
Quote from: GLW on Jul 05, 2015, 01:35
meanwhile, it's a good thing the climate is so mild, if it was like Pittsburgh, the wahines would be freezing to death for want of a means to pay the heating bill,...
yins say that like its a bad thing... The burgh is mild, haven't many bad winters in the last couple decades. may bee won oar too hear n their lately. probly dew two the global warming affect.
Quote from: HydroDave63 on Jul 04, 2015, 02:26
So much for the offshore wind portion of that colorful yet misleading chart...
http://www.utilitydive.com/news/doe-backed-floating-wind-project-may-lose-funding-as-utilities-reject-power/401496/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Utility+Dive&utm_campaign=Issue%3A+2015-06-30+Utility+Dive+Newsletter#.VZMIp8tQdGE.linkedin (http://www.utilitydive.com/news/doe-backed-floating-wind-project-may-lose-funding-as-utilities-reject-power/401496/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Utility+Dive&utm_campaign=Issue%3A+2015-06-30+Utility+Dive+Newsletter#.VZMIp8tQdGE.linkedin)
DOE-backed floating wind project may lose funding as utilities reject power prices
Principal Power's WindFloat Pacific project, a 30 MW floating wind turbine pilot project planned off Oregon's coast, could lose its federal funding because Pacific Power and Portland General Electric, the state's two investor-owned utilities, have rejected its above-market power price.
The undisclosed requested price for the electricity from the Department of Energy-backed project could be as high as $0.16-$0.35 per kWh, Breaking Energy reports. The Oregon utilities wrote a letter to lawmakers that said the proposed rates are 3 to 4 times the price of onshore wind, which comes in at less than 5 cents per kWh.
AUSSIE PM TONY ABBOTT CANCELS ALL GOVERNMENT WIND FARM SUBSIDIES
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/07/12/aussie-pm-tony-abbott-cancels-all-government-wind-farm-subsidies/
lemme help you here:
within twenty years the PVs et al will be running at no more than 50% capacity,...
because they'll be covered in snow;
A 'mini ice age' is coming in the next 15 years
Solar activity is predicted to drop by 60 percent in 2030.http://www.sciencealert.com/a-mini-ice-age-is-coming-in-the-next-15-years
I'll stick by my earlier assessment:
Quote from: GLW on Jun 26, 2015, 10:22
....I'm not seeing much more out of Bloomberg than "buy solar",...
(http://www.windpowerengineering.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Ice-on-Turbine-Blades-295x300.jpg)(http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/167279_10150383243295214_518940213_17119626_4455434_n1.jpg?w=720)(http://www.energymanagertoday.com/assets/solar-panels-Energy-Manage.jpg?324825)(http://www.northjersey.com/polopoly_fs/1.716177.1395296215!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/box_650/02202014solar-dngnk.jpg)
Quote from: Marlin on Jul 13, 2015, 09:05
AUSSIE PM TONY ABBOTT CANCELS ALL GOVERNMENT WIND FARM SUBSIDIES
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/07/12/aussie-pm-tony-abbott-cancels-all-government-wind-farm-subsidies/
You know, with all the hub bub about climate change and the unforeseeable power providing future involved with climate change from a green base load, you would think our national government would be more concerned about keeping nuclear as a large reliable base load power supply until unproven (on a large scale) green power shows it can "handle things" for a few years at least. The uber-greenies all talk about how climate change is coming and how this is written in stone, but what's not written in stone is how green power plants can handle the swings in weather which will accompany said climate change. I haven't read too much about that. The uber-greenies don't seem to pay that much attention. They seem to only want to talk about solutions that cater to a very defined future, which climate change will most certainly not be. Those pictures GLW put up make you think.
It's because most Greenies are ABN (anything but nuke) and can't disassociate Nuclear Power from Nuclear Weapons.........and no matter how many facts they are shown, still believe that Nuclear Power is dangerous and has no place in the world's energy portfolio. They also can't seem to understand the importance of base load power. What kind of a real environmentalist would chose a power source (wind, solar) that REQUIRES fossil back up? They also preach energy conservation.....well I don't. I want to be comfortable in the summer (central AC might be the greatest thing ever) and winter, I want my electronics to be charged and running and I like the way my house looks with the lights on. I don't want to worry about if the wind is blowing or oh no its getting dark :D.
Clean, safest, highest capacity factor, 24/7, massive base load power that uses very little real estate = Nuclear Power
[soap](http://rr-bb.com/images/smilies/choir.gif)
sum forward thinkers are re-solving the problem.
http://powersource.post-gazette.com/powersource/policy-powersource/2015/07/17/Pittsburgh-inks-deal-with-U-S-Department-of-Energy-Moniz-to-develop-clean-energy-plan/stories/201507170250
http://myendlesspower.com/