Steph, the following is only my opinion, but according to me it is 100% correct:
Navy Nukes have to be smart folks to begin with. Now smart folks like to go to college, and sometimes college is payed for just for simply being smart. So that doesn't leave a whole lot of people that the Navy can convince to become Navy nukes. Now throw in the fact that college is becoming somewhat easier to afford with Lottery scholarships, government grants, and other things like that, the pool for possible candidates goes down even more. So now you have two options, either lower your standards to allow more people in or do more to keep what you have. The Navy is doing both.
First, the nuclear pipeline once had attrition rates in well above 50%(I might be wrong on this). Over the years that attrition rate has dropped significantly down to single digits. While some of this can be attributed to "smarter" generations of sailors who can learn quicker, the majority of the change is simply that we are not getting rid of those we used to, whether for academics or the non-academic judgement calls(all sorts of horror stories about guys getting thrown out of the program for demonstrating lack of integrity in any form). Thus you get a massive influx of new "nukes" that are being thrown out there to make up for losses to the civilian world and, ironically, those that get denuked for being screw-ups. I always thought that the Navy treated its nukes like a pack mule: Put as much stuff as your can on a person, run them ragged for as long as you can, and if they give up and leave, oh well you got 3 more to take his place. If they come back for more, throw some money at them and see how much more you can put on them.
Secondly, this is why you are seeing re-up bonuses shooting through the roof. People are getting tired of being run ragged, never getting overtime, and basically treated like indentured servants with pay. Instead of trying to make life better, the Navy would rather keep the same old routine and throw money around and hope they get a few to bite. Kinda like fishing with a 100 hooks vs just 1 hook. Your chances of catching a fish or two go up significantly. So the Navy will get just enough people to stay around for various reasons such as financial need for a large cash bonus, fear of the outside world, or other reasons. Those people will work their way up through the ranks, but in most cases you are left with less than the cream of the crop.
So there is no conspiracy or anything like that. The Navy is doing like everyone else in the government always does. They are throwing money at a problem and hoping it works out. When it quits working, they increase the money amount and when it quits working again, they will again increase the money amount. The problem is that they don't understand that it won't matter how much they offer, it will never be worth it to most people. Honestly, if you went up to someone who wasn't a nuke and said "hey I will give you 45K if you do this job for just two additional years" you would have to beat people off with a stick, especially now. Nukes don't even blink an eye.