Author Topic: Did Tesla Just Kill Nuclear Power? (Read 28267 times)

Marlin · « **on:** May 04, 2015, 09:48 »

Did Tesla Just Kill Nuclear Power?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2015/05/01/did-tesla-just-kill-nuclear-power/

Marlin · « **Reply #1 on:** May 04, 2015, 10:23 »

This article is less opinion and more fact based.

Elon Musk’s Grand Plan to Power the World With Batteries

http://www.wired.com/2015/05/tesla-batteries/

desertdog · « **Reply #2 on:** May 04, 2015, 04:23 »

If you are planning to use these, don't ever let your place get cold or you better have an alternate power source to heat it. You ever try to use a LI battery in the cold?

HydroDave63 · « **Reply #3 on:** May 04, 2015, 09:35 »

There isn't enough lithium on this planet plus the next one, to handle the total amount of energy storage required for this green-pie-in-the-sky idea. SpaceX and Tesla have not yet turned profitable, so despite Mr Prettyboy and his hourly press conferences, I expect this (bad) idea to go the way of Enron, for much the same reasons.

SloGlo · « **Reply #4 on:** May 05, 2015, 12:49 »

Quote from: HydroDave63 on May 04, 2015, 09:35

There isn't enough lithium on this planet plus the next one, to handle the total amount of energy storage required for this green-pie-in-the-sky idea.

witch brings into play robotic mining of hour solar system.

Marlin · « **Reply #5 on:** May 05, 2015, 01:50 »

Quote from: HydroDave63 on May 04, 2015, 09:35

There isn't enough lithium on this planet plus the next one, to handle the total amount of energy storage required for this green-pie-in-the-sky idea. SpaceX and Tesla have not yet turned profitable, so despite Mr Prettyboy and his hourly press conferences, I expect this (bad) idea to go the way of Enron, for much the same reasons.

Not so rare at 0.0017% that's a big number when compared to the mass of the earth, and then there is that space mining thing, I am sure Mr Musk is looking at.

http://periodictable.com/Properties/A/CrustAbundance.v.log.html

Marlin · « **Reply #6 on:** May 06, 2015, 09:42 »

Why Tesla’s New Energy Battery Won't Replace Your Local Utility

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13137324/1/why-teslas-new-energy-battery-wont-replace-your-local-utility.html

HydroDave63 · « **Reply #7 on:** May 06, 2015, 09:43 »

So how many kilos of refined lithium are required to store, oh, say 20-30 kWh for a home (8 hr peak shaving scenario for summer when you have a/c start and refrigerator cycling)

. Multiply by 50 million houses in US alone. USGS estimates global reserves at 13.5 million tons. That is plenty if you are only using it in expensive laptop batteries and uber-expensive sports cars. Not nearly enough if every yuppie across the planet tries to install one.

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2015-lithi.pdf

This is right up there with hafnium-powered cars. Cool tech, but not actually feasible on macro scale.

Marlin · « **Reply #8 on:** May 06, 2015, 09:57 »

Quote from: HydroDave63 on May 06, 2015, 09:43

So how many kilos of refined lithium are required to store, oh, say 20-30 kWh for a home (8 hr peak shaving scenario for summer when you have a/c start and refrigerator cycling) . Multiply by 50 million houses in US alone. USGS estimates global reserves at 13.5 million tons. That is plenty if you are only using it in expensive laptop batteries and uber-expensive sports cars. Not nearly enough if every yuppie across the planet tries to install one.

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2015-lithi.pdf

This is right up there with hafnium-powered cars. Cool tech, but not actually feasible on macro scale.

From your citation:

"World Resources: Identified lithium resources in the United States total 5.5 million tons and approximately 34 million
tons in other countries. Identified lithium resources for Bolivia and Chile are 9 million tons and more than 7.5 million
tons, respectively. Identified lithium resources for major producing countries are: Argentina, 6.5 million tons; Australia,
1.7 million tons; and China, 5.4 million tons. In addition, Canada, Congo (Kinshasa), Russia, and Serbia have
resources of approximately 1 million tons each. Identified lithium resources for Brazil total 180,000 tons."

...and this is identified sources how much would be found if demand required it? Let's not forget space mining.

...How much lithium required per KW is a good question as only the anode in the battery is a lithium compound in a lithium battery.

HydroDave63 · « **Reply #9 on:** May 06, 2015, 11:01 »

Quote from: Marlin on May 06, 2015, 09:57

From your citation:

"World Resources: Identified lithium resources in the United States total 5.5 million tons and approximately 34 million
tons in other countries. Identified lithium resources for Bolivia and Chile are 9 million tons and more than 7.5 million
tons, respectively. Identified lithium resources for major producing countries are: Argentina, 6.5 million tons; Australia,
1.7 million tons; and China, 5.4 million tons. In addition, Canada, Congo (Kinshasa), Russia, and Serbia have
resources of approximately 1 million tons each. Identified lithium resources for Brazil total 180,000 tons."

...and this is identified sources how much would be found if demand required it? Let's not forget space mining.

...How much lithium required per KW is a good question as only the anode in the battery is a lithium compound in a lithium battery.

Space is a great place to find platinum group metals and virtually the only place we are likely to find significant quantities of iridium. Lithium is relatively abundant on the Moon, but with no water available for conventional leaching separation, processing will be highly expensive on an Energy Return On Investment basis. Hauling back and re-entering ore that is mostly silicates is a waste, and hauling water to the Moon to start the process would be pricy as well.

When space mining is actually feasible and not a company run by the Muskrat, I'll gladly buy shares. I don't want to own stock in a company cratering its facilities by repeatedly trying to recover the first stage at the expense of human safety.

Marlin · « **Reply #10 on:** May 06, 2015, 03:22 »

Tesla's New Battery Doesn't Work That Well With Solar

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-06/tesla-s-new-battery-doesn-t-work-that-well-with-solar

Marlin · « **Reply #11 on:** May 10, 2015, 11:31 »

Tesla's Battery Grabbed $800 Million in Its First Week

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-08/tesla-s-battery-grabbed-800-million-in-its-first-week

HydroDave63 · « **Reply #12 on:** May 10, 2015, 11:57 »

No-money-down signups? Heck, I should go order 10 MW worth right now and go get a PPA to be a home-based PURPA defined QF. Yeah, baby, yeah!

[spoiler]

[/spoiler]

Not bashing Marlin, just the Muskrat for loving to give press conferences. Meanwhile they are still losing over 2 dollars per share...

Marlin · « **Reply #13 on:** May 10, 2015, 03:15 »

Quote from: HydroDave63 on May 10, 2015, 11:57

No-money-down signups? Heck, I should go order 10 MW worth right now and go get a PPA to be a home-based PURPA defined QF. Yeah, baby, yeah!

[spoiler]
[/spoiler]

Not bashing Marlin, just the Muskrat for loving to give press conferences. Meanwhile they are still losing over 2 dollars per share...

He spends a lot of money in research, if he hits even one of his goals I suspect he will be profitable, but I am with you on the risk factor short term. He is frequently compared to Edison if he lives up to that his stock will eventually pay off.

Media mogul Rupert Murdoch's publishing efforts in the United States
began in 1973, and did not turn a profit until 1983.

ESPN began in 1979, and did not turn a profit until 1985 due to more
cable viewers and the desire on the part of the advertisers to reach
this audience.

Sports Illustrated" was first published in 1953, and
remained unprofitable until 1964.

The robot manufacturer Unimation was founded in 1956, and did not make
a profit until 1975.

Aircraft manufacturer Airbus took 20 years to turn a profit.

The World Trade center did not turn a profit until it was 20 years old.

http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=425412

HydroDave63 · « **Reply #14 on:** Aug 13, 2015, 03:21 »

Quote from: Marlin on May 10, 2015, 03:15

He spends a lot of money in research

Right now it looks like "research...in diluting shareholder value"

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/13/investing/tesla-stock-sale-musk/index.html?iid=ob_homepage_deskrecommended_pool&iid=obnetwork

Marlin · « **Reply #15 on:** Oct 31, 2016, 10:45 »

I believe that the new Power Wall with an unlimited power cycle and a declining cost of his new roof may make a dent in the grid in the next decade. The glass roof tile looks like a game changer from its endurance, efficiency, and aesthetics.

No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-31/no-one-saw-tesla-s-solar-roof-coming

hamsamich · « **Reply #16 on:** Oct 31, 2016, 02:22 »

Good article. I'll need a new roof in about 20 years. Maybe the batt/roof combination will be worth all the $$$$ hassle and hubbub then. Maybe.

Bonds 25 · « **Reply #17 on:** Oct 31, 2016, 02:41 »

Now, if only he can figure out a way to rid the planet of clouds, rain and stop the earth from rotating. My great vision is a very small Nuclear Reactor in my basement that never needs to be refueled and will power my home (24 hours a day.....no matter what) for 80 years. The carbon footprint of my Ferrari collection will be acceptable due to this great innovation.

Marlin · « **Reply #18 on:** Oct 31, 2016, 03:00 »

Quote from: Bonds 25 on Oct 31, 2016, 02:41

Now, if only he can figure out a way to rid the planet of clouds, rain and stop the earth from rotating. My great vision is a very small Nuclear Reactor in my basement that never needs to be refueled and will power my home (24 hours a day.....no matter what) for 80 years. The carbon footprint of my Ferrari collection will be acceptable due to this great innovation.

Maybe a small reactor buried in the back yard (big back yard

), they exist now.

But only economical if you share with a few thousand of your neighbors.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/2008/11/12/portable-nuclear-hot-tubs-could-power-america.html

Bonds 25 · « **Reply #19 on:** Oct 31, 2016, 03:09 »

See, that's A LOT cooler than putting stupid solar shingles on your house that......that look like shingles. This is why I believe Musk is just a straight arrow nerd who wants the world to think he is cool.

On the cool scale:

Nuclear Power>>>>>>>>>>>>>solar

GLW · « **Reply #20 on:** Oct 31, 2016, 07:25 »

Quote from: Bonds 25 on Oct 31, 2016, 03:09

See, that's A LOT cooler than putting stupid solar shingles on your house that......that look like shingles. This is why I believe Musk is just a straight arrow nerd who wants the world to think he is cool.

On the cool scale:

Nuclear Power>>>>>>>>>>>>>solar

Musk IS NOT Stark

although I suspect Musk thinks he might be,....

but then, upon further scrutiny,...

NOT,....

Tesla Fails to Refute IER’s Powerwall Article

aka

Tesla’s Incredible Shrinking Powerwall Warranty

http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/tesla-fails-to-refute-iers-powerwall-article

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/07/02/teslas-incredible-shrinking-powerwall-warranty/

Marlin · « **Reply #21 on:** Oct 31, 2016, 07:50 »

Quote from: GLW on Oct 31, 2016, 07:25

Musk IS NOT Stark

although I suspect Musk thinks he might be,....

but then, upon further scrutiny,...

NOT,....

Tesla Fails to Refute IER’s Powerwall Article

aka

Tesla’s Incredible Shrinking Powerwall Warranty

http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/tesla-fails-to-refute-iers-powerwall-article

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/07/02/teslas-incredible-shrinking-powerwall-warranty/

Is that an evaluation of the Powerwall or Powerwall 2? From the article.

The Powerwall 2 may be the cheapest lithium ion battery for the home ever made when deliveries start in January. Tesla is selling the batteries at retail prices that are cheaper than the average manufacturing cost at most companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. We "certainly expect it will move the market prices downwards as we saw last year with the first Powerwall," said Yayoi Sekine, a BNEF analyst who covers battery technology.

GLW · « **Reply #22 on:** Oct 31, 2016, 08:16 »

Quote from: Marlin on Oct 31, 2016, 07:50

Is that an evaluation of the Powerwall or Powerwall 2? From the article.

The Powerwall 2 may be the cheapest lithium ion battery for the home ever made when deliveries start in January. Tesla is selling the batteries at retail prices that are cheaper than the average manufacturing cost at most companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. We "certainly expect it will move the market prices downwards as we saw last year with the first Powerwall," said Yayoi Sekine, a BNEF analyst who covers battery technology.

Tesla does not differentiate between the PW & PW2 in their downloadable warranty, only by part number:

https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/powerwall/Powerwall_Warranty_USA_2-0.pdf

needs more V&V?!?!?!

and yet, must be the lawyers are involved as it may not be comprehensive or easy and you will only really know after some dedicated scrutiny as to what is what,...

to wit: exactly the type of challenge nuclear types revel in, exactly the type of BS other people find frustrating and onerous, and exactly the type of shell game that people who push product and hype as a means to the money will hide behind,...

the company may be called Tesla, but the company has no consistency with the altruist who was Tesla,....

Marlin · « **Reply #23 on:** Oct 31, 2016, 11:34 »

Quote from: GLW on Oct 31, 2016, 08:16

Tesla does not differentiate between the PW & PW2 in their downloadable warranty, only by part number:

https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/powerwall/Powerwall_Warranty_USA_2-0.pdf

needs more V&V?!?!?!

and yet, must be the lawyers are involved as it may not be comprehensive or easy and you will only really know after some dedicated scrutiny as to what is what,...

to wit: exactly the type of challenge nuclear types revel in, exactly the type of BS other people find frustrating and onerous, and exactly the type of shell game that people who push product and hype as a means to the money will hide behind,...

the company may be called Tesla, but the company has no consistency with the altruist who was Tesla,....

Warranty aside the Powerwall 2 has overcome some of the issues with performance of the battery. Major drawback on the original was a limited number of power cycles. I would expect that there will be continued improvement in performance and cost.

GLW · « **Reply #24 on:** Oct 31, 2016, 11:55 »

Quote from: Marlin on Oct 31, 2016, 11:34

Warranty aside......

really?!?!?!?

a 6 grand plus investment and the warranty does not matter?!?!?!

okee dokee then,....

Quote from: Marlin on Oct 31, 2016, 11:34

...... I would expect that there will be continued improvement in performance and cost.

in all things except commercial fusion power, that does seem to be the case,...

eventually the fun part of "gettin off the grid" is that the government begins to see that loss of revenue and finds new and creative ways of getting it back ala electric cars, hybrid cars and ultra fuel efficient cars:

(the conservative estimate to pay off the solar roof powerwall combo is 38 years, I doubt it will take the governments(s) 38 years to figure out how to levy a "solar use tax")

Electric-Car Owners Get Taxed for Not Paying Gas Taxes

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-06-06/electric-car-owners-get-taxed-for-not-paying-gas-taxes

These U.S. States Charge Electric Car Fees To Make Up For Lost Gas Tax Revenue
http://insideevs.com/u-s-states-charge-electric-car-fees-make-lost-gas-tax-revenue/