Swine flu pandemic

[elwood]

Now that WHO has gone to level 5 have any plants instituted their plans?  We were briefed on our plan today and it sounds like a lot of overtime.

[Ric_Flitton]

Apr 30, 12:54 PM (ET)

By FRANK JORDANS

GENEVA (AP) - The World Health Organization said confirmed swine flu cases rose to 257 worldwide Thursday and announced it will would stop using the term "swine flu" to avoid confusion over the danger posed by pigs.

The global body said the number of confirmed cases in Mexico rose to 97 from 26, with seven deaths. The WHO confirmed tally from the United States now stands at 109, with one death.

Other confirmed cases include 19 in Canada, 13 in Spain, eight in Britain, three each in Germany and New Zealand, two in Israel and one each in Austria, Switzerland and the Netherlands.

WHO spokesman Dick Thompson told reporters in Geneva that at least one of the Spanish cases involved a person who had not traveled to Mexico. Spanish officials said that was a man who apparently got the virus from his girlfriend, who recently returned from Mexico.

Thompson said the flu name change comes after the agriculture industry and the U.N. food agency expressed concerns that the term "swine flu" was misleading consumers and needlessly causing countries to order the slaughter of pigs.

"Rather than calling this swine flu ... we're going to stick with the technical scientific name H1N1 influenza A," he said.

On Wednesday, Egypt began slaughtering its roughly 300,000 pigs as precaution, even though experts said swine flu is not spread by eating pork.

WHO raised the pandemic flu alert to phase 5 on Wednesday, one step away from the highest level indicating a global outbreak. WHO flu chief Keiji Fukuda said Thursday there were no indications in the past day that would prompt the U.N. body to raise the alert further.

To move from pandemic alert level 5 to level 6 means that WHO believes there is evidence of big outbreaks in at least two world regions and a pandemic is under way.

Why overtime and how many levels are there?

[elwood]

There are 6 levels.  6 being the worst.  If we go to level six at the plant we will quarantine 2 operating crews on site, and 2 crews quarantined at home.  The 2 crews at the plant will work 12 on 12 off and sleep on site. 

[SloGlo]

theirs been a hundred deaths attibuted to swine flu.  usually we loose 10 or 20 thousand to the run of the mill flu.  ain't we at level 5 a bit quick? 

[elwood]

I could not agree more.  I think they are blowing this way out of proportion.  <600 confirmed cases world wide and they are acting like it is the end of the world.

[grantime]

Funny all the prep that goes into "pandemic flu".   How many times have you seen regular flu or some other bug take out whole shifts?  No mention of plan then except to call people out.  Would pandemic flu be that much worse?   Even on some of the really bad ones the actual death rate was only 1% or so.  Its just that lots of people get it.  And keep in mind that medical care is greatly improved( at least here) from 1918 when Spanish flu killed 75 mill or so

[SloGlo]

And keep in mind that medical care is greatly improved( at least here) from 1918 when Spanish flu killed 75 mill or so

yeah, butt dat wuz when a mill wuz a lot of people!  oar money.

[rlbinc]

It isn't about the flu. Seasonal flu kills 30,000 people a year, about 100 a day. It's about distraction. Taliban closing in on nuclear armed Pakistan, while we apologize for wetting the nose of Khalid Sheik Mohammed - the bank stress test results due next week - they need some new headlines, and for now - Swine Flu is it.

April -May flu outbreaks also fly in the face of Global Warming theorists - so the Inconvenient Truth headlines won't cut it.

[withroaj]

It isn't about the flu. Seasonal flu kills 30,000 people a year, about 100 a day. It's about distraction. Taliban closing in on nuclear armed Pakistan, while we apologize for wetting the nose of Khalid Sheik Mohammed - the bank stress test results due next week - they need some new headlines, and for now - Swine Flu is it.

April -May flu outbreaks also fly in the face of Global Warming theorists - so the Inconvenient Truth headlines won't cut it.

Add to that the government takeover of GM, Chrysler's Presidential ordered bankruptcy and sale to Fiat (could it be to a more appropriately named company?), and other events; and I'd say there's no better time to count on media sensationalism to cling to this new Pandemic.

[Marlin]

Ooooooooooooooooooooooh Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo (we're headed to PolySci) Mr. Bill.

(Good analysis from you both though.)

Thanks for the help I was typing a cautionary message as you posted this.  

[Bham_Dave]

I think what's being missed in the media is the age and demographics of those needing hospitalization an those that have died.
The "normal" seasonal flu targets the old, young, and the weak. The swine flu is primarily hospitalizing and killing adults age 20-45. This is very unusual and is a telltale for the makings of a serious situation in the future.

The deaths among ages 20-45 have all of the hallmarks of a cytokine storm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm. Basically, keeping this as simple as possible here, the flu appears to be mild, but this strain is causing a reaction in healthy adults that causes their immune systems to grossly overreact and attack not only the virus but healthy body tissue as well. The bodies immune system essentially turns on itself. There is no fix for a cytokine storm. The best defense is to stop the viral infection early to limit the bodies response, and to hopefully avoid an overreaction by the immune system.

The other worry is that the overall hallmarks of this virus are similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918, which also surfaced in the spring before reemerging later that fall far more deadly, and killing a large number of 20-45 yr olds, it was also highly contagious.

Through some contacts at the CDC, and some profs at Ga.Tech I can tell you that this virus has left more than a few short of breath, and while not an emergency right now, it demands a very watchful eye.
Also I'll pass on some info that I've come across that should not be taken as gospel, but that I've instructed my family and friends to do from information that has found its way to me. These are just friendly suggestions that you may want to look into. Take them for what they're worth.

*Look into getting a Pneumovax shot ASAP.
*Obtain Tamiflu and Ralenza if possible.
*Obtain Antibiotics for possible secondary infections. (Zpack, Aug, Cipro have been suggested)
*Have 2weeks of food at home in case you have to deal with a Mex City type shutdown.

Just some info, no need to panic, but this swine flu strain does warrant a watchful eye because of it's current genetic makeup, just try not to blow it off as being the same as the "normal" flu, because that it is not.
Everyone just be careful, wash those hands, and hopefully this will be a big nuthingburger.

[HydroDave63]

The deaths among ages 20-45 have all of the hallmarks of a cytokine storm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm. Basically, keeping this as simple as possible here, the flu appears to be mild, but this strain is causing a reaction in healthy adults that causes their immune systems to grossly overreact and attack not only the virus but healthy body tissue as well. The bodies immune system essentially turns on itself. There is no fix for a cytokine storm. The best defense is to stop the viral infection early to limit the bodies response, and to hopefully avoid an overreaction by the immune system.

, to ya, awesome post!!!

Later in the Wiki article, it did have some link and mention of free radical scavengers http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_radical_scavengers  helping in overall reduction of cytokine levels. So a good supply of reservatrol, goji , pomegranate etc.  might help a bit as well.

[Bham_Dave]

There are some things that are reported to help with the cytokine storm, however the big problem is that most everything it seems that we're normally told to take to boost out immune systems for cold or flu season could significantly boost the level of reaction in a cytokine storm.
Advice I've got is if you want to boost your immune system with vitamin C, D, E, green tea, elderberry, or whatever is commonly suggested, that this is fine to avoid the virus, but once you have symptoms you should stop such treatments until we get confirmation that increased levels of cytokine aren't responsible for the anomalies regarding the 20-45 yr old age group.

Vitamin D3 has been documented in influenza prevention, but the reasons for it are unclear. I've seen vitamin C research that seems split b/t whether or not it helps.

There are also some drug cocktails that have been used to treat cytokine storms, but they are not on a scale anywhere close to what would be required for this flu outbreak. These cocktails have mostly been administered on a case by case basis, and these drug cocktails are very expensive.

[namlive]

Due to the swine flu: At SRS the site drill has been cancelled. There will be no training classes of more than 6 people and they must be at least 3 ft. apart. The cafeteria is roped off. You are to get your food and take it back to your desk and eat. Our prejob briefs are held in large areas instead of a small room. The use of alcohol cleaner is encouraged.

This does not apply to tour groups headed up the DOE secretary.

Construction asked for volunteers to see who could stay at SRS 24/7 for 5-6 weeks. Rumors are we will shut down except for essential personnel. I don't expect a shut-down lock-in, but they are sending out feelers to see if it feasible.

[SloGlo]

it's looking like dis is da time two git a little swine flu.  itz pretty low grade 'n a little bit now wood help inoculate against a mutated version later.

[HydroDave63]

Vaccine supply nearly shot
Many providers have run out of seasonal flu inoculations weeks before the season begins.

By KIM ARCHER World Staff Writer
Published: 10/9/2009  2:23 AM

Many Oklahoma medical providers have run out of seasonal flu vaccine — less than a month after they began offering the immunizations.

"If we make it to the end of the week, I'd be surprised," said Shannon Robbins, wellness director at the Visiting Nurse Association of Tulsa. The group provides most of the flu shots throughout northeastern Oklahoma, including those through Reasor's Food Stores.

"Demand does seem to be unusually high this year," said Don Blose, immunization chief at the Oklahoma State Department of Health.

But he characterized the situation as a supply disruption caused by manufacturers trying to distribute two types of vaccine — the seasonal flu and the H1N1 virus.

"The anticipation is that there will be more doses that make it to market around November," Blose said. "We usually don't see our first case of seasonal flu until November or December."

The predominant flu strain circulating in Oklahoma remains the H1N1 virus, he said.

A small allotment of H1N1, or swine flu, vaccine arrived in Tulsa late last week. That has already been used to vaccinate hospital health-care workers and more than 100 children at Limestone Elementary School in Sand Springs, said Melanie Christian, spokeswoman for the Tulsa Health Department.

More H1N1 vaccine is expected to follow next week, federal health officials have said.

The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had urged states to offer seasonal flu shots early to provide time between those and the H1N1 flu vaccinations.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=17&articleid=20091009_17_A1_Mnkaoa277479&allcom=1

So, being thrifty and ingenious, Midwesterners have found their own workaround...

[RDTroja]

I just got an education of sorts about the current H1N1 flu strain.

My 88 year-old mother just spent some time in the hospital due to a gastrointestinal problem. Since hospitals are generally germ central (it is, after all, where the sick people go) we were a bit concerned about the flu because of her age. A few days after getting out she started to show a few symptoms -- low grade fever, feeling lethargic, etc. A trip to her doctor (not the hospital) confirmed that she had been exposed to H1N1. The big surprise was that the symptoms never got worse and lasted only about two or three days.

The doctor explained that this strain of H1N1 is very similar to the strain that attacked in 1957 and if you got exposed then (most of us old enough to be alive then did) you have enough antibodies to pretty much deflect the effects of this strain. You may get symptoms, but they should be mild and only last a couple of days... much like many people experience when they get the flu shot. So, we dinosaurs may have an advantage this time around and should be OK, even if exposed. Cool. Finally, a benefit to being older.