Today's Pipeline Attrition Rate?

[PercMastaFTW]

My ship date (March 4th) is coming up and I'm getting pretty nervous about everything. I've been looking things up on the internet about the attrition rate, but everything is extremely convoluted and contradicting.

There aren't too many "recent" posts about the subject.

Apparently a guy said back in the 90s, a sir named Bedlam (?) wanted to lower the academic attrition rate and changed the nuke program, and someone said in like 2009 that it was repealed and that they want more quality again, which means higher academic attrition again?

I've also heard the basic "You only fail if you don't try or if you use alchohol/disciplinary."

Then there's a guy saying that that view is bullsh*t, who went through it in the 90's and argued that the attrition rate is much higher.

Some have said there's barely anybody getting dropped ~10% attrition (due to anything) (some posts from 2007-2009).

Then there's the ones saying A-school had a few dropped, Power had quite a bit over 50% attrition (using his class as the control group apparently), and Prototype had few drop out (weeded out already).

Then a bunch of 2009/2011 posts about BOTH high attrition and low attrition rates... Who do I believe?

My nuke coordinator told me that barely anybody gets kicked out due to academics (this only includes the ones that care and are actually trying hard). He said that he thinks A-School is the hardest (getting to learn how to study properly etc.) and that after that, the next schools can be much easier, although much more advanced.

Of course there's a bunch more "stories" I've heard...

I really want to make it through, but I do like to have a clear picture of anything I do, before I do it. It would be awesome to hear something based on a less subjective fact, such as an estimated percentage or something to that regard, or even a "prediction" of today's drop-out rate based on the direction the pipeline has been going in the recent years. But if you have any information at all, I'd love to hear it!

Would you say that out of only the people who care and give it their all, the attrition rate for those people have an attrition rate of 10%? Thank you.

[GLW]

I really want to make it through,...

Well then it's easy,....

You do what you're told, when you're told, how you're told,...

Ignore all the BS and BS'ers around you and stay focused on getting through and doing your best,...

If you find out you are not the type that can breeze through the pipeline, you still do your best,...

If you are not top half of your class, you still do your best,...

If you get asinine section chiefs and leads, you still do your best,...

If some jerk puts you on mondo mandatory study hours, you still do your best,...

If you cannot get the hang of a watchstation, you look basically stupid, and have to perform five watches instead of three to qualify, you still do your best,...

If you find out you really do not like the Navy, you still do your best,...

If you have a lapse of judgement and get busted from E-4 to E-3, you still do your best,...

If you are failing out, you still do your best,...

Because the attrition going on all around you means nothing to you when you are focused on doing your best,....

Should you be the one staring attrition square in the face, it will be no worse than a vocation you were not cut out for,...

You will know that because you did your best,...

So will the officers and enlisted who are administering your pipeline wash out,...

And some time later, near or far, when your commitment to the Navy is over,...

Your discharge will state "Honorable", and that still means something,...






OBTW,...good luck, let us know when you make it through, we like success stories,... 

[Chimera]

Dang, GLW . . . where were you when I was having all my misgivings about going into the nuke program back in the summer of 1969.

By the way, PercMastaFTW, I did my best and hated every minute of it while I had a ball - and would do it all over again if presented with the opportunity.  Doesn't make sense?  It will once you've been there.  Study hard, relax, enjoy and persevere.

[GLW]

. . . where were you when I was having all my misgivings about going into the nuke program back in the summer of 1969.....

I was 9YO and doing my best,......in Little League,...

[BuddyThePug]

Would you say that out of only the people who care and give it their all, the attrition rate for those people have an attrition rate of 10%? Thank you.

NO.

Saw plenty of those get dropped in Power School for ac, fat or psych etc.

Just do as Chimera and GLW advise, and you will be fine. Just as study hours are mandatory and necessary, so are 7-8 hours of restful sleep and vitamins.

[HeavyD]

Whether I was the LPO, LCPO, or filling in for a DIVO, I only ever had 2 rules for my sailors:

1. Show up on time.

2. Do what you are told.

Mix in doing your best at what you're told, and you have as much control of your destiny as you will at any other major point in your life.  You will also have adopted two habits that can and will serve you far into your future.

Best of luck and thank you for volunteering to serve!

[Marlin]

I've also heard the basic "You only fail if you don't try or if you use alchohol/disciplinary."

Only one Pinocchio... the Navy does not want to fail anyone but the screening process is not 100%

alchoholalcohol/disciplinary."

Spell check would have caught that.

Then there's a guy saying that that view is bullsh*t, who went through it in the 90's and argued that the attrition rate is much higher.

Drop out rates through the pipeline were up to 90% in the 70s, that is a function of "needs of the Navy" current rates are much lower but I don't think focusing on a constantly changing metric is helpful GLW's and Chimera's advice is much better.

bullsh*t,

You read the forum rules or have good internet manners by starring out part of the profanity  

Some have said there's barely anybody getting dropped ~10% attrition (due to anything) (some posts from 2007-2009).

Then there's the ones saying A-school had a few dropped, Power had quite a bit over 50% attrition (using his class as the control group apparently), and Prototype had few drop out (weeded out already).

Then a bunch of 2009/2011 posts about BOTH high attrition and low attrition rates... Who do I believe?

My nuke coordinator told me that barely anybody gets kicked out due to academics (this only includes the ones that care and are actually trying hard). He said that he thinks A-School is the hardest (getting to learn how to study properly etc.) and that after that, the next schools can be much easier, although much more advanced.

Of course there's a bunch more "stories" I've heard...

I heard that every class is different.    You seem to have a case of nerves

[spekkio]

Stuff

Does it really matter what the attrition rate is? The instructors will do their part and explain the material. You do your part and remember at least 63% of it, and there won't be any problems. You're not graded on a curve that automatically kicks out X% of people. Also, don't break the law.

Like pretty much everything in the military, it's fairly straightforward.

[PercMastaFTW]

Thanks everybody for all your great comments! I've always been one to never give up through tough circumstances and I understand that's one part of passing the school.

Only one Pinocchio... the Navy does not want to fail anyone but the screening process is not 100%

So you believe this is basically the true statement? All right, I'll keep this one in mind!

Drop out rates through the pipeline were up to 90% in the 70s, that is a function of "needs of the Navy" current rates are much lower but I don't think focusing on a constantly changing metric is helpful GLW's and Chimera's advice is much better.

haha Yeah I will be following their advice! I just put that guy's story into it since I was also hearing about the change to the school in the 90's about getting a lower Academic attrition rate, around the time he went through the school.

You read the forum rules or have good internet manners by starring out part of the profanity  

 

I heard that every class is different.    You seem to have a case of nerves

Haha Yeah I do get nervous. I honestly just love knowing everything there is to know about something before I get into it haha.


Following the "As long as you give it your all" quote, it would seem that the people following this would have a low chance of actually falling out. But apparently some of you are saying a bunch still get hit for academic reasons (although they are trying). There's also the people saying it used to be 70-90% drop out, but now it's much lower. Does that mean one out of every two people, who try, drop? One out of every three who try? Which ratio seems more realistic?

Just want to put things into perspective is all. I mean, if they are trying hard, and fail, it must have meant something more, right? Like, the material was too fast/hard to learn for most of them? This makes it seem like everybody literally has a lucky "chance" that they can pass (chance you have the personality of a nuke), based on that information, if you know what I mean.

Does it really matter what the attrition rate is? The instructors will do their part and explain the material. You do your part and remember at least 63% of it, and there won't be any problems. You're not graded on a curve that automatically kicks out X% of people. Also, don't break the law.

Like pretty much everything in the military, it's fairly straightforward.

I just want to visualize how many people actually can't get through it, even if they are doing their best. Put against the quote of "anybody can get through the pipeline if they work hard", it just doesn't make much sense to me if the rate is 30% or 50% (I have no idea which is more realistic) AND they follow that guideline.

But yeah, I'm going to give it my all either way. I just am really interested in what my "chances" are, if I can put it that way haha.

[spekkio]

I just want to visualize how many people actually can't get through it, even if they are doing their best. Put against the quote of "anybody can get through the pipeline if they work hard", it just doesn't make much sense to me if the rate is 30% or 50% (I have no idea which is more realistic) AND they follow that guideline.

Like I said, a passing score is 62.5% no matter what. It's been like that for a long time now. How many people attain at least that score will depend on the makeup of each class. The instructors are there to guide you through it, not fail you.

[PercMastaFTW]

Like I said, a passing score is 62.5% no matter what. It's been like that for a long time now. How many people attain at least that score will depend on the makeup of each class. The instructors are there to guide you through it, not fail you.

All right, thanks so much spekkio. I'm gonna give it all I can. Not even gonna think about failing!!

[DLGN25]

Two five and survive... 

It was true in 1967 as it appears to be true today.

Many a fine nuke sailor came from the 'class' of 2.5...

Work hard and you will do fine.

[SpaceJustice]

Back in 2007 I didn't see anyone who wanted to be there and give it their best fail out.  Not a guarantee, not easy, but completing the pipeline is not an impossible task.

[PercMastaFTW]

Thanks so much guys. Leaving in exactly a week...

[Marlin]

Thanks so much guys. Leaving in exactly a week...

Good luck and thanks in advance for your service.

[Samabby]

Best of luck, young man. One Great Lakes suggestion- ask the last fire watch to wake you 10 minutes early each morning to get a little headstart on the day. Once you are squared away, help out a shipmate.

[Ksheed]

Best of luck, young man. One Great Lakes suggestion- ask the last fire watch to wake you 10 minutes early each morning to get a little headstart on the day. Once you are squared away, help out a shipmate.

http://www.nukeworker.com/forum/index.php/topic,35151.msg164860.html#msg164860

[Savage]

My ship date was nearly 2 years ago on March 4th so that peaked my interest to register and reply.  I recently qualified and am about to report to my first boat.  You should not be worried about the attrition rate.  It is small.  Most people do not get pulled out for academics, rather it's what you've heard such as the alcohol and what not.  Even then though you can remain in the program depending on your circumstances.  A few others will be denuked for medical reasons.

Once you report to NFAS you'll start learning about integrity.  Do not ever compromise it.  Even if you do something stupid be honest.

Also, as long as you show up everyday on time, in and clean uniform w/ a sat haircut and a fresh shave you will be just fine. (They will even say this to you.)

The days are long, but it's over before you know it.  Like I said, I'm about at my 2 year point in the Navy and I am so happy for what I have done for me and my family.  If you are married then make sure to prepare your wife by telling her you will be at work a lot.  If you have a girlfriend, then as my LCC is proto used to say, "buy her a house and then wave goodbye because it's all the same in the end."  haha. 

You'll be fine, just make sure you study and use all of the resources they put at your disposal.  Everyone wants you to pass.  Enjoy boot camp too.  It sucks, but it's going to be your best time in the Navy.  Good luck future sailor!

[PercMastaFTW]

My ship date was nearly 2 years ago on March 4th so that peaked my interest to register and reply.  I recently qualified and am about to report to my first boat.  You should not be worried about the attrition rate.  It is small.  Most people do not get pulled out for academics, rather it's what you've heard such as the alcohol and what not.  Even then though you can remain in the program depending on your circumstances.  A few others will be denuked for medical reasons.

Once you report to NFAS you'll start learning about integrity.  Do not ever compromise it.  Even if you do something stupid be honest.

Also, as long as you show up everyday on time, in and clean uniform w/ a sat haircut and a fresh shave you will be just fine. (They will even say this to you.)

The days are long, but it's over before you know it.  Like I said, I'm about at my 2 year point in the Navy and I am so happy for what I have done for me and my family.  If you are married then make sure to prepare your wife by telling her you will be at work a lot.  If you have a girlfriend, then as my LCC is proto used to say, "buy her a house and then wave goodbye because it's all the same in the end."  haha. 

You'll be fine, just make sure you study and use all of the resources they put at your disposal.  Everyone wants you to pass.  Enjoy boot camp too.  It sucks, but it's going to be your best time in the Navy.  Good luck future sailor!

haha Thanks for your recent experience I'm getting prepared for MEPs tomorrow morning. Nervous as heck haha. Giving me much more confidence after reading it. What's that quote mean exactly? Everythings the same in the end? But hey thanks for posting!!!!

[Savage]

Rumor had it that the divorce rate is high that's all. Any last minute questions about anything that I am able to answer?

[RDTroja]

...What's that quote mean exactly? Everythings the same in the end?...

It's the ZsaZsa Gabor rule. When asked if she was a good housekeeper she said "I am a great housekeeper. Every time I get divorced, I keep the house!"

Or as Rod Stewart said, "Instead of getting married again, I'm going to find a woman I don't like and just give her a house."

[PercMastaFTW]

Ah man that sucks savage! I'll take note

haha What should I make my dream sheet for stations? Been looking at those stations up there^! Also, when do we get to choose our station, and who gets first choice? Thanks a lot

[SpaceJustice]

What Savage said is absolutely true.  Show up where you're supposed to be, when you're supposed to be there, in the correct SAT uniform and you'll be miles ahead of a lot of people.  Especially in the fleet.  The school portion isn't that bad, because everyone else is putting in time too.

[HeavyD]

Dream sheets don't come around until part of the way through prototype.

As far as determining who goes where, I never learned of any secret formula for that.  Having served with several guys who did tours as the detailer, what they said is that it comes down to one thing; The needs of the Navy.

That statement right there will have more impact on your career than anything else, except maybe the choices you make in how to approach things.  What it means is that if the sub fleet needs 50 MMs and your class has 55, of which 50 are male, guess where the majority of you are probably going?  That's right, to fill those billets that the Navy needs filled the most.

Keep your eyes on the prize, show up on time and do what you're told.  The rest can seem almost easy after that.

Best of luck and thank you for volunteering to serve!

[Savage]

The only dream sheet you need to worry about is your rate. I'm an ET and I chose it as my top choice. I like it and the bonus is good. If you want to be an EL you need to be rated as an MM. I feel EMs are a bit under appreciated but what they do is cool too.

You'll rank your two choices from the three rates. You'll also be asked to volunteer subs. You can always volunteer later, but the benefit of doing it in boot is the back paid sub pay that you'll stay to accumulate.

Good luck!