Like Father,....Like Son,...

[hamsamich]

great article even though old.  what a waste of a good nuke plant. no matter how you slice it.

[GLW]

http://archive.longislandpress.com/2009/06/11/nuclear-waste-20-years-after-the-closure-of-the-shoreham-power-facility/

7.5 years old, but I hadn't read it before today, I found it quite interesting.

Read it?!?!

I lived it ,..

[GLW]

Hmmmm... There are liquid gas tankers in New York Harbor with a terminal in Perth Amboy. A rupture of one of these tankers could launch a gas cloud that when detonated by an ignition source on shore would be one of the largest explosions in US history. A lot of the replacement energy is likely to be gas. They are fighting fracking there as well!!! So much for adult supervision. NY get your wallets open.

Imagine an aerosolled gas cloud with no nearby ignition source.

Nope,....

Hydro Quebec will send 1000MW down the Champlain - Hudson Corridor via NYISO,....

The infrastructure was built or upgraded over the last eight years, most of it before 2012,.....

This has been probable for eight years and possible for three maybe four,....

NYS head to do something with all that Obama money that Arkansas didn't get,....

[Marlin]

Nope,....

Hydro Quebec will send 1000MW down the Champlain - Hudson Corridor via NYISO,....

The infrastructure was built or upgraded over the last eight years, most of it before 2012,.....

This has been probable for eight years and possible for three maybe four,....

NYS head to do something with all that Obama money that Arkansas didn't get,....

They are losing two nukes and they really don't know where the replacement power is coming from. Articles that address only IP say the replacement potentially will be from Canada but it is only speculation at this time. New England so far has replaced it's power losses with gas so I don't expect this to be any different. But time will tell.

[hamsamich]

And no matter what, ANY carbon producing power being generated after IP is shutdown flies in the face of today's liberal environmental priorities.  Whether I agree with them or not.  You can't have your cake and eat it too.  Well you can, but everyone will be walking around holding their pant legs up to keep them from getting brown.  You can't hold them up forever.

[GLW]

They are losing two nukes and they really don't know where the replacement power is coming from. Articles that address only IP say the replacement potentially will be from Canada but it is only speculation at this time. New England so far has replaced it's power losses with gas so I don't expect this to be any different. But time will tell.

they do know where the replacement power for the 25% of IP's contribution to NYC is coming from,....

they have known since prior to 2012,....

e.g. (there is more, but you can look that up for yourself),...

https://www.riverkeeper.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Synapse-Indian-Point-Replacement-Study-10-11.pdf

they have been building the infrastructure since before that,....

the relationship NYS has with Quebec Hydro is a long one,...

the Champlain - Hudson corridor has been around for a quite a while

New England has the relationship they do not have the infrastructure,...

New England also screws themselves by imposing "renewable" limits on themselves,...

New York is not doing financial seppuku,...

ergo, the CES with Fitz, Ginna & 9 Mile,...

it comes down to cost,....

IP is and will be cheaper than the alternatives,....

IP is also ostensibly more reliable and has the advantage of being locally sourced and regulated,....

but if the hotshots in NYC want to pay more for non-nuke bragging rights, well, that is their prerogative,...

after all, it's their money,....

it's not my money, I live 145 miles north of those oddly twisted city slickers,...

but, the replacement generation and distribution infrastructure is there,....

whaddaya think?!?!?!?

I just make s--t up as I type and muse?!?!?!?!?!

I research pal,....I research,....

[Marlin]

they do know where the replacement power for the 25% of IP's contribution to NYC is coming from,....

they have known since prior to 2012,....

e.g. (there is more, but you can look that up for yourself),...

https://www.riverkeeper.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Synapse-Indian-Point-Replacement-Study-10-11.pdf

they have been building the infrastructure since before that,....

the relationship NYS has with Quebec Hydro is a long one,...

the Champlain - Hudson corridor has been around for a quite a while

New England has the relationship they do not have the infrastructure,...

New England also screws themselves by imposing "renewable" limits on themselves,...

New York is not doing financial seppuku,...

ergo, the CES with Fitz, Ginna & 9 Mile,...

it comes down to cost,....

IP is and will be cheaper than the alternatives,....

IP is also ostensibly more reliable and has the advantage of being locally sourced and regulated,....

but if the hotshots in NYC want to pay more for non-nuke bragging rights, well, that is their prerogative,...

after all, it's their money,....

it's not my money, I live 145 miles north of those oddly twisted city slickers,...

but, the replacement generation and distribution infrastructure is there,....

whaddaya think?!?!?!?

I just make s--t up as I type and muse?!?!?!?!?!

I research pal,....I research,....

I did look it up and what you have referenced is River Keepers and the Mayor and Governor are liberal Democrats with an alternative power wish list. The best answer I found is proposed or probably.

Let's try Forbes:

Natural Gas -- Not Renewables -- Is Replacing Nuclear Power

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/05/16/natural-gas-is-replacing-nuclear-power-not-renewables/#211f6fdd4abb

[GLW]

I did look it up and what you have referenced is River Keepers and the Mayor and Governor are liberal Democrats with an alternative power wish list. The best answer I found is proposed or probably.

Let's try Forbes:

Natural Gas -- Not Renewables -- Is Replacing Nuclear Power

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/05/16/natural-gas-is-replacing-nuclear-power-not-renewables/#211f6fdd4abb

okay,....

read the article!!!!!!

It projects the future for everybody from the New England paradigm!!!!!

the article references New England's lack of transmission infrastructure which challenges New England's ability to avail itself of the Quebec Hydro surplus (last paragraph)!!!!!!!

that lack of infrastructure compels New England to build new local gas plants or refire oil plants,...

the article also mentions that New England even limits it's own ability to bring in natural gas for the new plants built due to lack of sufficient gas lines and dogged stubbornness in giving the go light to new infrastructure because New Englanders would rather freeze to death as righteous (yet dead) green party acolytes than build some dam gas lines or build transmission lines to buy up Quebec Hydro's excess!!!!!

WHY?!?!?!?!?!

I don't know, they're whacked!!!!!

BUT!!!!!!

New England is not synonymous with New York,....

New York has the CES to keep nuclear viable,...

New York has the transmission capacity to route Quebec Hydro to NYC,...

whether it will be the best and most cost effective solution to running the subways and metro rails I do not know nor care,...

I actually do know (for the short term - the next 20 years or so), but I do not care,...

I do not live in NYC and do not pay their bills,....

BUT,....

closing down IP is a New York decision,...

the CES for Fitz, Ginna & 9 Mile is also a New York decision,....

closing down IP has been forseeable for a long time,...

this thread was started 5.5 years ago,...

and the groundwork was being put in place before that,....

the projection of the closing of IP as some sort of fly by night knee jerk faux pas is dead wrong,...

it is a political decision,...

that does not make it a foolish decision,....

[Ksheed]

Read it?!?!

I lived it ,..

Well, I was in primary school. The biggest thing going on in my world (aside from riding my bike to the arcade and swimming in the river) was the nuke plant under construction five miles northeast of town.

[Ksheed]

The governor's office claims the state can absorb the loss of Indian Point's 2,000 MW of power and replace it without increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Transmission upgrades and efficiency measures account for 700 megawatts and about 1,000 megawatts of hydropower will provide much of the rest.


"The [Department of Public Service] has been planning for this eventuality for several years," Richard Kauffman, Cuomo's energy czar, said in an interview, citing demand reduction, transmission upgrades, new sources of renewable energy, and the Champlain Hudson Power Express, which will deliver hydropower to the metro area from the Canadian border.


"The benefit of this agreement is it gives the market adequate time to figure out the resources that are going to be needed," Kauffman said.


Two natural gas plants are expected to come online in the downstate region in the next few years — the 650 megawatt CPV Valley plant in Orange County and the 1,000 megawatt Cricket Valley plant in Dutchess County. The CPV Valley plant, which is part of a corruption case involving a former top Cuomo aide, still needs its natural gas supply but has all other necessary approvals.


Gavin Donohue, head of the Independent Power Producers of New York, said those plants will be the cleanest natural gas generators that can be built today and can help replace Indian Point. He also said the state should focus on in-state resources rather than Canadian hydropower.


"When you have those types of assets in New York ready to come online and you have a handful of years before Indian Point leaves the grid, why wouldn't you look to in-state jobs, in-state taxes, in-state electricity production?" said Donohue, who represents electric generators in New York. "It makes no sense that we would need to look to a foreign government for our power needs."

http://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2017/01/cuomos-quest-to-end-indian-point-raises-more-questions-108575

[Marlin]

okay,....

read the article!!!!!!

Please that is insulting and beneath you. The article is what has, is, and will be happening with power distribuition in New England. The article makes it clear that natural gas will be the replacement despite limitations in pipelines.


From the article I cited:

As all energy experts know, renewables will never replace any of nuclear's clean power lost by the closing of nuclear plants. Renewables are having enough trouble replacing significant amounts of coal or keeping pace with demand, and require taxpayer subsidies to get built. So natural gas is the obvious choice for new electricity generation in all regions of the country.

This trend is unlikely to change. Electricity demand in New England is growing 1% annually. Total generating capacity for the region is 31 GW, but over 4 GW is retiring in the next few years, and another 6 GW is at risk of retirement by the early 2020s.

As a result, 13 GW of new natural gas is proposed to cover all expected increases in electricity demand for the next decade.

[Ksheed]

Two natural gas plants are expected to come online in the downstate region in the next few years — the 650 megawatt CPV Valley plant in Orange County and the 1,000 megawatt Cricket Valley plant in Dutchess County. The CPV Valley plant, which is part of a corruption case involving a former top Cuomo aide, still needs its natural gas supply but has all other necessary approvals.

they do know where the replacement power for the 25% of IP's contribution to NYC is coming from,....

they have known since prior to 2012,....

e.g. (there is more, but you can look that up for yourself),...

https://www.riverkeeper.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Synapse-Indian-Point-Replacement-Study-10-11.pdf

they have been building the infrastructure since before that,....

the relationship NYS has with Quebec Hydro is a long one,...

the Champlain - Hudson corridor has been around for a quite a while

New England has the relationship they do not have the infrastructure,...

New England also screws themselves by imposing "renewable" limits on themselves,...

New York is not doing financial seppuku,...

ergo, the CES with Fitz, Ginna & 9 Mile,...

it comes down to cost,....

IP is and will be cheaper than the alternatives,....

IP is also ostensibly more reliable and has the advantage of being locally sourced and regulated,....

but if the hotshots in NYC want to pay more for non-nuke bragging rights, well, that is their prerogative,...

after all, it's their money,....

it's not my money, I live 145 miles north of those oddly twisted city slickers,...

but, the replacement generation and distribution infrastructure is there,....

whaddaya think?!?!?!?

I just make s--t up as I type and muse?!?!?!?!?!

I research pal,....I research,....

My opinion: Anything released by Riverkeeper would need to be taken with a huge heaping helping of salt....


Every one of these early shutdown stories is laced with the bs of energy efficiency upgrades and renewable replacement scenarios for replacing thousands of baseload MW's.

[GLW]

My opinion: Anything released by Riverkeeper would need to be taken with a huge heaping helping of salt....

My opinion: Anything released by Riverkeeper would need to be taken with a huge heaping helping of salt....

the Riverkeeper slant on things is not the gem hidden in the slop,....

the gem is the comprehensive list of references on pages 61, 62 & 63,....

the fact based white papers, reports, reviews and summaries published by NYISO, NYERDA, FERC et al which details the infrastructure upgrades and new construction to allow a closure of IP without shutting down the subway system or metro rail,...

there are numerous greenie authored unicorn and rainbow essays also listed, none of which detract from the facts published by NYISO etc.,...

Please that is insulting and beneath you. The article is what has, is, and will be happening with power distribuition in New England. The article makes it clear that natural gas will be the replacement despite limitations in pipelines.


From the article I cited:....

read the article with attention to the date of the article,....

Okay Marlin, keep in mind your referenced article was focused on New England and was written before New York's CES was implemented in 2016,...

Here are a couple of articles written by the same author after the New York 2016 CES,...

Exelon Buys Fitzpatrick Nuclear Plant, Setting The Standard for U.S. Carbon Goals

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/08/11/exelon-buys-fitzpatrick-nuclear-plant-setting-the-standard-for-us-carbon-goals/#13acd39d1426

Cuomo Accepts Nuclear Is Clean For Upstate New York

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/08/02/new-york-state-considers-nuclear-a-clean-energy/#4679983e768b

perhaps you remember this discussion from 2016, when all the same points were made?!?!?!

https://www.nukeworker.com/forum/index.php/topic,41813.msg195720.html#msg195720

https://www.nukeworker.com/forum/index.php/topic,41813.msg195725.html#msg195725

https://www.nukeworker.com/forum/index.php/topic,41771.msg195548.html#msg195548

https://www.nukeworker.com/forum/index.php/topic,41771.msg195574.html#msg195574

in summary:

natural gas is NOT the baseload replacement for IP,...

New York's political decision makers are not a lunatic fringe who shutdown nukes AND stifle gas pipeline enhancements,...

the political goal to shutdown IP may seem unwise in the near term in terms of costs to the consumers and very well may be,...

BUT those NYC consumers who constitute Cuomo's biggest base want this and they are paying the cost and NYS has gone through the due diligences over the last eight years to make this viable without resorting to natural gas,....

this is not New England,....

this is New York dammit,....

quit trying to make them to be the same thing,....

you don't read me typing that Tennessee / Florida / Louisiana / Georgia are all same same,...

just stop it dammit,....

[GLW]

or, in other words:


[youtube height=150 width=275]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZeYVIWz99I[/youtube]

[hamsamich]

Maybe GLW is right, but the truth will only come out once IP is shutdown.  Ironic that you took a really cool movie that is pretty historically inaccurate to punctuate your statements...or did you do that on purpose?  Hard to figure out the GLW.  He is a delicious mystery I thoroughly enjoy.

Still in my mind the liberal NY politicians who want this thing are robbing Peter to pay Paul.  OK liberals you get no nuke plant 30 miles from NYC which really isn't a big deal, but you are giving up 2Gig of power that is carbon free, and according to liberals greenhouse gasses are going to destroy our planet. 

Ok fine all the bigwigs in NYC want this and have a good plan, but the reasoning behind it still sucks.

[Marlin]

the Riverkeeper slant on things is not the gem hidden in the slop,....

the gem is the comprehensive list of references on pages 61, 62 & 63,....

the fact based white papers, reports, reviews and summaries published by NYISO, NYERDA, FERC et al which details the infrastructure upgrades and new construction to allow a closure of IP without shutting down the subway system or metro rail,...

there are numerous greenie authored unicorn and rainbow essays also listed, none of which detract from the facts published by NYISO etc.,...

read the article with attention to the date of the article,....

Okay Marlin, keep in mind your referenced article was focused on New England and was written before New York's CES was implemented in 2016,...

Here are a couple of articles written by the same author after the New York 2016 CES,...

Exelon Buys Fitzpatrick Nuclear Plant, Setting The Standard for U.S. Carbon Goals

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/08/11/exelon-buys-fitzpatrick-nuclear-plant-setting-the-standard-for-us-carbon-goals/#13acd39d1426

Cuomo Accepts Nuclear Is Clean For Upstate New York

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/08/02/new-york-state-considers-nuclear-a-clean-energy/#4679983e768b

perhaps you remember this discussion from 2016, when all the same points were made?!?!?!

https://www.nukeworker.com/forum/index.php/topic,41813.msg195720.html#msg195720

https://www.nukeworker.com/forum/index.php/topic,41813.msg195725.html#msg195725

https://www.nukeworker.com/forum/index.php/topic,41771.msg195548.html#msg195548

https://www.nukeworker.com/forum/index.php/topic,41771.msg195574.html#msg195574

in summary:

natural gas is NOT the baseload replacement for IP,...

New York's political decision makers are not a lunatic fringe who shutdown nukes AND stifle gas pipeline enhancements,...

the political goal to shutdown IP may seem unwise in the near term in terms of costs to the consumers and very well may be,...

BUT those NYC consumers who constitute Cuomo's biggest base want this and they are paying the cost and NYS has gone through the due diligences over the last eight years to make this viable without resorting to natural gas,....

this is not New England,....

this is New York dammit,....

quit trying to make them to be the same thing,....

you don't read me typing that Tennessee / Florida / Louisiana / Georgia are all same same,...

just stop it dammit,....

As usual when you are in a corner you post a long list of irrelevant or loosely associated links with an associated diatribe. I am not biting nor wasting my time. To date natural gas has replaced nuclear and coal baseloads nation wide and New England. Natural gas is also the reason we have reduced carbon to the extent we have. Alternative energy that is being pushed by ideologues (Liberal New England has many, lets regulate big slushies  ) has not panned out and we are to believe magically that will change?

They are losing two nukes and they really don't know where the replacement power is coming from. Articles that address only IP say the replacement potentially will be from Canada but it is only speculation at this time. New England so far has replaced it's power losses with gas so I don't expect this to be any different. But time will tell.

[GLW]

sorry man, but you're wrong,....

they are shutting down 2 nukes,...

they do know where the replacement power is coming from,....

and it is not to be natural gas for the IP baseload contributions,....

NYISO, NYERDA, FERC, and all the others have already laid this all out years before the agreement to shut down IP was published,....

to date the nation and New England have done what they will,...

to date,.....it was New York that first developed and made policy the CES which made the upstate New York plants viable,....

the nation, and perhaps even New England, are either catching up to that benchmark or just plain losing their nukes,....

projecting that natural gas replacement is going to happen as a result of IP going off grid regardless of all the evidence to the contrary,...

that's a diatribe,....

[Marlin]

sorry man, but you're wrong,....

they are shutting down 2 nukes,...

they do know where the replacement power is coming from,....

and it is not to be natural gas for the IP baseload contributions,....

NYISO, NYERDA, FERC, and all the others have already laid this all out years before the agreement to shut down IP was published,....

to date the nation and New England have done what they will,...

to date,.....it was New York that first developed and made policy the CES which made the upstate New York plants viable,....

the nation, and perhaps even New England, are either catching up to that benchmark or just plain losing their nukes,....

projecting that natural gas replacement is going to happen as a result of IP going off grid regardless of all the evidence to the contrary,...

that's a diatribe,....

To date we have had a progressive agenda orgy in this nation, there is a new Sheriff in town who is willing to make change.

again...

From the article I cited:

"As all energy experts know, renewables will never replace any of nuclear's clean power lost by the closing of nuclear plants. Renewables are having enough trouble replacing significant amounts of coal or keeping pace with demand, and require taxpayer subsidies to get built. So natural gas is the obvious choice for new electricity generation in all regions of the country.

This trend is unlikely to change. Electricity demand in New England is growing 1% annually. Total generating capacity for the region is 31 GW, but over 4 GW is retiring in the next few years, and another 6 GW is at risk of retirement by the early 2020s.

As a result, 13 GW of new natural gas is proposed to cover all expected increases in electricity demand for the next decade."

What Will the Trump Effect Be on Energy?

"Governor Cuomo also now has a very interesting decision to make.  Does he look for a peaceful way out or does he double down, solidifying his green credentials while possibly becoming the poster child for why the Democrats lost an election they seemed sure to sweep?"

http://naturalgasnow.org/will-trump-effect-energy/

[GLW]

To date we have had a progressive agenda orgy in this nation, there is a new Sheriff in town who is willing to make change.

again...


What Will the Trump Effect Be on Energy?

"Governor Cuomo also now has a very interesting decision to make.  Does he look for a peaceful way out or does he double down, solidifying his green credentials while possibly becoming the poster child for why the Democrats lost an election they seemed sure to sweep?"

http://naturalgasnow.org/will-trump-effect-energy/

well old friend here's the crux:

whether liberal or conservative, the Empire State has been progressive, indeed the Empire State was the birthplace of the progressive meme before and since the term progressive entered the national vernacular,....

Teddy Roosevelt,....

and the willingness to stand the Republican Party on it's head to change the national direction is a New York Republican specialty,....

Teddy Roosevelt - Donald Trump,....

without going all polysci on this I'll try one last summary:

New York is not waiting for or concerned with the national consensus,....

New York is going the New York way,...

and natural gas is part of that way, but  only a small part, and not the new baseload replacement for the political decision to close IP,....

national trends or California shell games be dammed,...

pal,....

[Marlin]

without going all polysci on this I'll try one last summary:

New York is not waiting for or concerned with the national consensus,....

There is an interstate component here with distribution from Pennsylvania and there is a voting block that wants it for home heating. The worst seven words in business are "we have always done it that way" and we have a businessman coming into power with associated likeminded appointees. You can repeat the same justification again and again but that does not make it true or absolute. Back to my original closure again:

New England so far has replaced it's power losses with gas so I don't expect this to be any different. But time will tell.

I am not sure how you can be so definitive when there is clearly conflicting agendas and information. There is clearly a shift in business attitudes and political power, as much as NY is a bastion of progressives it is still one of fifty. Keystone is likely to go forward despite local objection and energy Independence and possibly becoming an energy exporter is on the Trump agenda. I would bet on Trump in this case, I am generalizing here but clearly an influential component in the equation.

[hamsamich]

I think most reasonable people know, we won't know for sure until IP has been offline for awhile and we see where the power comes from.  Trusting any politician, even the awesome NY  ones, always has risk.

[Marlin]

I am not sure how you can be so definitive when there is clearly conflicting agendas and information. There is clearly a shift in business attitudes and political power, as much as NY is a bastion of progressives it is still one of fifty. Keystone is likely to go forward despite local objection and energy Independence and possibly becoming an energy exporter is on the Trump agenda. I would bet on Trump in this case, I am generalizing here but clearly an influential component in the equation.

I should have added Yucca Mountain Trump has expessed interest in it. Now that Harry Reid is gone who knows.

[Ksheed]

Stretching pretty far from the topic, but considering the drum beating, I couldn't resist.

[hamsamich]

Actually that post is right on the money since the it underscores the type of thinking that goes into these decisions.

[GLW]

There is an interstate component here with distribution from Pennsylvania and there is a voting block that wants it for home heating. The worst seven words in business are "we have always done it that way" and we have a businessman coming into power with associated likeminded appointees. You can repeat the same justification again and again but that does not make it true or absolute. Back to my original closure again:


I am not sure how you can be so definitive when there is clearly conflicting agendas and information. There is clearly a shift in business attitudes and political power, as much as NY is a bastion of progressives it is still one of fifty. Keystone is likely to go forward despite local objection and energy Independence and possibly becoming an energy exporter is on the Trump agenda. I would bet on Trump in this case, I am generalizing here but clearly an influential component in the equation.

One of 50 yes,....

NYISO makes New York one of one,....


https://www.ferc.gov/industries/electric/indus-act/rto/metrics/nyiso-rto-metrics.pdf

In addition, section 215 of the Federal Power Act, as amended by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, allows the State of
New York to ―establish rules that result in greater reliability within the state.‖ The NYISO is, therefore, also
responsible for complying with rules established by the New York State Reliability Council, L.L.C ("NYSRC"), whose
mission is to promote and preserve the reliability of electric service on the New York power system by developing,
maintaining, and updating the Reliability Rules which shall be complied with by the NYISO and all entities engaging
in electric transmission, ancillary services, energy and power transactions on the New York power system.

I can be so definitive because I know my definitive documents,...