You Don't Realize How Cheap Solar Will Soon Be

[Marlin]

You Don't Realize How Cheap Solar Will Soon Be

http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2014/06/17/you_dont_realize_how_cheap_solar_will_soon_be_107851.html

[hamsamich]

good article but these articles that are this high on solar never talk about competitiveness when it is cloudy/nighttime.  Especially in the winter when it is cold at night and people need heat.  shouldn't they at least devote a paragraph to that?  seems extremely important.  Probably a great thing in the summer when people are hot during the day and AC is running, although I know the efficiency goes down quite a bit when these panels get hot.  that's why they work so well in the high desert.

[Marlin]

good article but these articles that are this high on solar never talk about competitiveness when it is cloudy/nighttime.  Especially in the winter when it is cold at night and people need heat.  shouldn't they at least devote a paragraph to that?  seems extremely important.  Probably a great thing in the summer when people are hot during the day and AC is running, although I know the efficiency goes down quite a bit when these panels get hot.  that's why they work so well in the high desert.

   Very true with conventional wisdom but it does bring smaller companies and individuals closer to generating their own while still hooked up to the grid. Newer technologies in batteries and transmission make the home, companies/facilities, and small generators players in the big picture but you are correct that base load will still need large plants such as nuclear, coal, or gas. With the rate of increase in efficiency of solar cells it may not be that far off but maybe not 2016 as the article suggests.

[GLW]

   Very true with conventional wisdom but it does bring smaller companies and individuals closer to generating their own while still hooked up to the grid.....

I believe I realize how cheap solar will not be,...

Out Of Ideas And In Debt, Spain Sets Sights On Taxing The Sun

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2013/08/19/out-of-ideas-and-in-debt-spain-sets-sights-on-taxing-the-sun/

..........You get the feeling that government officials were out of ideas, stared up at the sky one day and thought, “I’ve got it! We’ll tax the sun!”

But wait, it gets worse. You see, not only has the use of solar panels has made it possible for many in the country to produce their own energy for less than what they would have paid the utility company, many residents in Spain generate enough electricity from solar that they get paid to selling the excess energy back to producers. This, it turns out, is a problem. The government is putting a stop to that, too: as part of the reform efforts (read: desperate measures), there will be a prohibition on selling extra energy.

And there’s still more: in order to figure out who is producing what level of energy (and, of course, to tax it), all solar panels now have to be hooked up to the grid. Those taxpayers who don’t connect to the grid face a fine of up to 30 million euros ($40 million U.S.). Yes, million. With an m. That kind of number is so incomprehensible to the average person that it’s almost like they pulled it out of nowhere, as if the conversation went something like this:

Maybe 10 euros? Nah, not nearly enough.

What about 100 million euros? No, way too much.

30 million euros? Yeah, that sounds about right.

However they figured the number, the intention is clearly to scare taxpayers into connecting to the grid in order to be taxed. The tax, however, will make it economically unfeasible for residents to produce their own energy: it will be cheaper to keep buying energy from current providers. And that is exactly the point. 

It seems ludicrous. But before you shake your head and assume that such a policy could only happen in Spain, think again. A similar concern has been brewing in Arizona, where power companies are hoping for legislation that would require customers to pay them to buy back excess power. Of course, since we don’t like taxes in this country, they’re framing it as a “convenience fee” – but really, to-may-to, to-mah-to. As the battle in Arizona heats up (pun totally intended), other states will no doubt be watching since the dollars at risk are huge: $590 million was invested in Arizona on homes and businesses in 2012 alone.....

Soooooooooooo,....

for those of you who jumped on the feel good, save the planet solar bandwagon don't expect your government to "reward" your good deeds,...

expect to be punished,...

we are 17 trillion in debt you know,...

all of this as you shake your head in bewilderment at those of us who never bought into the hype whilst your earth friendly solared out domicile becomes a white elephant in an ever tighter real estate market,...

"Too cheap to meter" is too cheap to be allowed,...

It is (was) a nice slogan to suck in the "to a fault" hopeful and bright eyed,...

You'd think nukeworkers would be amongst the first to figure that out,...

I'm just saying,....

[Marlin]

I believe I realize how cheap solar will not be,...

Out Of Ideas And In Debt, Spain Sets Sights On Taxing The Sun

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2013/08/19/out-of-ideas-and-in-debt-spain-sets-sights-on-taxing-the-sun/

..........You get the feeling that government officials were out of ideas, stared up at the sky one day and thought, “I’ve got it! We’ll tax the sun!”

But wait, it gets worse. You see, not only has the use of solar panels has made it possible for many in the country to produce their own energy for less than what they would have paid the utility company, many residents in Spain generate enough electricity from solar that they get paid to selling the excess energy back to producers. This, it turns out, is a problem. The government is putting a stop to that, too: as part of the reform efforts (read: desperate measures), there will be a prohibition on selling extra energy.

And there’s still more: in order to figure out who is producing what level of energy (and, of course, to tax it), all solar panels now have to be hooked up to the grid. Those taxpayers who don’t connect to the grid face a fine of up to 30 million euros ($40 million U.S.). Yes, million. With an m. That kind of number is so incomprehensible to the average person that it’s almost like they pulled it out of nowhere, as if the conversation went something like this:

Maybe 10 euros? Nah, not nearly enough.

What about 100 million euros? No, way too much.

30 million euros? Yeah, that sounds about right.

However they figured the number, the intention is clearly to scare taxpayers into connecting to the grid in order to be taxed. The tax, however, will make it economically unfeasible for residents to produce their own energy: it will be cheaper to keep buying energy from current providers. And that is exactly the point. 

It seems ludicrous. But before you shake your head and assume that such a policy could only happen in Spain, think again. A similar concern has been brewing in Arizona, where power companies are hoping for legislation that would require customers to pay them to buy back excess power. Of course, since we don’t like taxes in this country, they’re framing it as a “convenience fee” – but really, to-may-to, to-mah-to. As the battle in Arizona heats up (pun totally intended), other states will no doubt be watching since the dollars at risk are huge: $590 million was invested in Arizona on homes and businesses in 2012 alone.....

Soooooooooooo,....

for those of you who jumped on the feel good, save the planet solar bandwagon don't expect your government to "reward" your good deeds,...

expect to be punished,...

we are 17 trillion in debt you know,...

all of this as you shake your head in bewilderment at those of us who never bought into the hype whilst your earth friendly solared out domicile becomes a white elephant in an ever tighter real estate market,...

"Too cheap to meter" is too cheap to be allowed,...

It is (was) a nice slogan to suck in the "to a fault" hopeful and bright eyed,...

You'd think nukeworkers would be amongst the first to figure that out,...

I'm just saying,....

   Hmmm the article may imply some assumptions that are a little on the looking through "Green Colored Glasses" perspective but the basic premise of cheaper solar on the way just as cheaper more efficient computers have followed Moore's Law doubling computer power every two years is sound. If you look at power distribution from a base unit only point of view solar is not so attractive but as technology advances, as it will, and solar cell roof tiles can be made at a lower and lower cost (an example) the more power on the grid at peak load can be delivered maybe even turning some customers into suppliers. I don't think solar will take over but clearly it has an opportunity to change the complexion of the grid. As for the European socialist solar tax scheme I don't see it here we already have laws requiring power companies to pay for power added to the grid by individuals.

[GLW]

  Hmmm the article may imply some assumptions that are a little on the looking through "Green Colored Glasses" perspective but the basic premise of cheaper solar on the way just as cheaper more efficient computers have followed Moore's Law doubling computer power every two years is sound. If you look at power distribution from a base unit only point of view solar is not so attractive but as technology advances, as it will, and solar cell roof tiles can be made at a lower and lower cost (an example) the more power on the grid at peak load can be delivered maybe even turning some customers into suppliers. I don't think solar will take over but clearly it has an opportunity to change the complexion of the grid. As for the European socialist solar tax scheme I don't see it here we already have laws requiring power companies to pay for power added to the grid by individuals.

read the Forbes article,...

....As for the European socialist solar tax scheme I don't see it here we already have laws requiring power companies to pay for power added to the grid by individuals.

so did the Spaniards, they changed them when the power companies revenues and the government taxes they support dwindled to unacceptable levels,...

...If you look at power distribution from a base unit only point of view solar is not so attractive but as technology advances, as it will, and solar cell roof tiles can be made at a lower and lower cost (an example) the more power on the grid at peak load can be delivered maybe even turning some customers into suppliers....

and that is the problem as it removes the revenue needed to sustain power producers and removes the tax base from the government as it puts money back into the pocket of the consumer,...

uncollected money and taxes the power companies and the government both need to maintain their viability,...

....I don't think solar will take over but clearly it has an opportunity to change the complexion of the grid.....

the complexion of the grid is a huge money machine for two huge interests: the energy industry and government, neither will tolerate and maybe cannot tolerate anything more than marginal and fringe experiments, once those paradigm shifts threaten the real revenue and tax generation they are no longer wanted, encouraged or promoted,...

think of it like this:

history illustrates that when business and government want to expand into unknown, unsure and unsafe arenas they send out "les Voyageurs",...

the miscreants of controlled society yearning to be free,...

they send them out to colonise, to explore, to learn, to experiment, to demonstrate viability,...

they do this to minimize investment risk and "show the way",...

in return, les Voyageurs are allowed unprecedented freedom, freedoms not allowed to the stay at homes, freedom to travel, to build, to accumulate unfettered wealth,...

freedom from onerous regulation, law and taxes,...

indeed they are at times even subsidized in their efforts,...

but always, once the viability has been established, once the nouveau is not so nouvea, "civilization" comes knocking and yesterday's heroes become today's "wildmen", become societal anachronisms with "funny ways" and "dangerous ideas", individualists which cannot conform to a polite and compliant society,...

so it is with the "solar pioneers" of Spain,...

individuals who grasped for the dream of power too cheap to meter, who invested their own personal time and some personal resource into the "outer fringe" of energy independence, the "explorers" who showed everyone the way with odd looking panels and collectors and thingamabobs on otherwise nice, normal homes,...

visionaries who grasped at the baubles held before them by the establishment to traiblaze a new era in self reliance, who reaped the financial benefit of being in the vanguard of energy enlightenment,...

but then,...

the vanguard became the main herd, and now, in Spain, the notion of self-reliance and the economical benefit that self-reliance confers is a "dangerous idea",...

an idea which must be made to conform with new laws and new energy marshalls, a free ranging wild west of sod busting energy rustlers who must be reined in for the good order of civilized society,...

who must "pay their fair share" for the benefits they enjoy on the backs of all the other members of society not so fortunate as to have a solar collector on their roof,...

the "free riders" must be brought to heel,...

and in Spain, they are being brought to heel,...

and (read the Forbes article) the same advance of energy civilization is being brought to bear against the "free riders" in Arizona,...

it's the way of things,...

[hamsamich]

As far as the Arizona thing goes I have friends there who told me about that.  There are two sides to that story.  I'm not sure how true the other side is - the electric company's side.  Can the grid handle so many "small power generating stations" and is the grid designed to handle it?  It may be BS but it is not an unreasonable question.  The power companies there are asking to "tax" (like 5 bucks last time I heard, a month) people who back-feed power since they payed nothing to build the infrastructure they are using (but maybe state taxes and paying your electric bill every month should count for something since we have all paid for some part of the "infrastructure" in some way).  It is all very gooey at this point but worth talking about.  ~waving hand~ Talk amongst yourselves.

[jowlman]

I can see this scenario as well. The utility is forced  by law to buy your power, nothing in the law says what they have to pay, so they pay you well below market value and are then able to sell it at market value. Now not to be left out, the government says now that you are selling your excess, you must pay taxes on that income. Therefore your net gain is zero if you are lucky and is negative if you are not so lucky.

[Marlin]

read the Forbes article,...

so did the Spaniards, they changed them when the power companies revenues and the government taxes they support dwindled to unacceptable levels,...

and that is the problem as it removes the revenue needed to sustain power producers and removes the tax base from the government as it puts money back into the pocket of the consumer,...

uncollected money and taxes the power companies and the government both need to maintain their viability,...

the complexion of the grid is a huge money machine for two huge interests: the energy industry and government, neither will tolerate and maybe cannot tolerate anything more than marginal and fringe experiments, once those paradigm shifts threaten the real revenue and tax generation they are no longer wanted, encouraged or promoted,...

think of it like this:

history illustrates that when business and government want to expand into unknown, unsure and unsafe arenas they send out "les Voyageurs",...

the miscreants of controlled society yearning to be free,...

they send them out to colonise, to explore, to learn, to experiment, to demonstrate viability,...

they do this to minimize investment risk and "show the way",...

in return, les Voyageurs are allowed unprecedented freedom, freedoms not allowed to the stay at homes, freedom to travel, to build, to accumulate unfettered wealth,...

freedom from onerous regulation, law and taxes,...

indeed they are at times even subsidized in their efforts,...

but always, once the viability has been established, once the nouveau is not so nouvea, "civilization" comes knocking and yesterday's heroes become today's "wildmen", become societal anachronisms with "funny ways" and "dangerous ideas", individualists which cannot conform to a polite and compliant society,...

so it is with the "solar pioneers" of Spain,...

individuals who grasped for the dream of power too cheap to meter, who invested their own personal time and some personal resource into the "outer fringe" of energy independence, the "explorers" who showed everyone the way with odd looking panels and collectors and thingamabobs on otherwise nice, normal homes,...

visionaries who grasped at the baubles held before them by the establishment to traiblaze a new era in self reliance, who reaped the financial benefit of being in the vanguard of energy enlightenment,...

but then,...

the vanguard became the main herd, and now, in Spain, the notion of self-reliance and the economical benefit that self-reliance confers is a "dangerous idea",...

an idea which must be made to conform with new laws and new energy marshalls, a free ranging wild west of sod busting energy rustlers who must be reined in for the good order of civilized society,...

who must "pay their fair share" for the benefits they enjoy on the backs of all the other members of society not so fortunate as to have a solar collector on their roof,...

the "free riders" must be brought to heel,...

and in Spain, they are being brought to heel,...

and (read the Forbes article) the same advance of energy civilization is being brought to bear against the "free riders" in Arizona,...

it's the way of things,...

We are not Spain nor are we in the same lattitudes that would produce that excess. Germany had a simular problem  but with excess wind and solar power for it's tranmission lines at peak power we don't have that problem either.

[Marlin]

I can see this scenario as well. The utility is forced  by law to buy your power, nothing in the law says what they have to pay, so they pay you well below market value and are then able to sell it at market value. Now not to be left out, the government says now that you are selling your excess, you must pay taxes on that income. Therefore your net gain is zero if you are lucky and is negative if you are not so lucky.

Perhaps depends on state and utilitly

http://www.dsireusa.org/

...but then even without the buy back a declining cost described in the article will eventually make home power very attractive and with advances in storage capacity even more so. Graphene battery technology is very promising. All still in the future but maybe the near future.

[GLW]

We are not Spain nor are we in the same lattitudes that would produce that excess......

really?!??!!?!?!?

are you sure you used to be a sailor?!?!?!

New York City is at the same lattitude as Madrid,...

We are not Spain nor are we in the same lattitudes that would produce that excess. Germany had a simular problem  but with excess wind and solar power for it's tranmission lines at peak power we don't have that problem either.

you are ignoring all the background I presented,...

exactly why are you holding fast to the notion that state governments or the federal government in and of the US of A will not amend the tax laws to make up for lost revenues?!?!?!?

the huge push in this country with subsidized wind and solar is to put us exactly into the contemporary scenario of Germany and Spain,...

I'm not telling you solar is not happening, I'm illustrating that the "powers that be" will never long tolerate that energy source to be unmetered, free, or "unfairly" inexpensive for the masses,...

all those things for a fortunate few will be allowed until the few become the many,...

so, unless you intend to be "off" the grid, the grid will eventually demand it's due,...

which means; You Don't Realize How Cheap Solar Will Soon Not Be

[Marlin]

really?!??!!?!?!?

are you sure you used to be a sailor?!?!?!

New York City is at the same lattitude as Madrid,...

Anchorage?

you are ignoring all the background I presented,...

Not really I simply don't think it applies sometimes your responses are like a student that thinks the more he writes the more likely he is to pass an exam.  

[GLW]

...Not really I simply don't think it applies sometimes your responses are like a student that thinks the more he writes the more likely he is to pass an exam.  

hey I like writing,...or typing, whatever,...

it's more engaged than "I'm right, you're wrong, shut up!",...

albeit, I'm pretty much always right,.....

[Marlin]

I'm not telling you solar is not happening, I'm illustrating that the "powers that be" will never long tolerate that energy source to be unmetered, free, or "unfairly" inexpensive for the masses,...

all those things for a fortunate few will be allowed until the few become the many,...

so, unless you intend to be "off" the grid, the grid will eventually demand it's due,...

which means; You Don't Realize How Cheap Solar Will Soon Not Be

   The original article was more about the rapidly declining cost of solar cells than conspiracy theories on 1984 government control, and again we are not Spain.

[GLW]

  The original article was more about the rapidly declining cost of solar cells than conspiracy theories on 1984 government control, and again we are not Spain.

BZ's general observation on Internet forums/threads etal, By the 5th post in any thread it starts drifting off topic. By 12 to 15 it has nothing to do with the original topic and if it surives to 30 or so it magically gets back on topic. This applies almost everywhere.

Mike

guilty as charged

[Marlin]

hey I like writing,...or typing, whatever,...

it's more engaged than "I'm right, you're wrong, shut up!",...

albeit, I'm pretty much always right,.....

Those of us who engage in these debates are mini-trolls anyway. Guilty as charged.

 



http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/climate_desk/2014/02/internet_troll_personality_study_machiavellianism_narcissism_psychopathy.html

[HydroDave63]

Germany had a simular problem  but with excess wind and solar power for it's tranmission lines at peak power we don't have that problem either.

Germany doesn't have a problem with excess wind power 24/7, the problem is:

1) Wind and solar are "must-take", so the high price gets stuck to the utilities, since the residential rates are regulated. This creates an economic mess much like California in 2001 during the Enron crisis.

2) Max wind blows during light-load seasons, and usually in evenings. Utility gets stuck buying wind and backing down thermal to make room for the must-take. Oh, and when the wind falls off from maximum to nearly zero in an hour, they get to ramp up the peaker units ASAP. Which would be fine, except RWE has already mothballed older simple cycle gas peaker units due to hemorrhaging $5 billion in 2013 due to #1 above. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26430674

3) The wind power blows along the coastal plains in the northeast of Germany. Most of the industry and residential load is in the southwest and south. The utilities get to pay billions to build DC transmission lines to move the power from the coast to Bavaria  http://www.law360.com/articles/453536/1-3b-renewable-energy-power-line-proposed-for-germany  despite losing their a$$ on power sales due to #1 and #2.

"Cheap" solar is more about government control and imposing mandates that shareholders and ratepayers must support, rather than the environment. That's why concentrated solar plants keep getting permits, while they fry more birds in midair than nuclear power plants ever killed since the CP-1.

[Marlin]

Germany doesn't have a problem with excess wind power 24/7, the problem is:

Didn't say they did I said peak power.

1) Wind and solar are "must-take", so the high price gets stuck to the utilities, since the residential rates are regulated. This creates an economic mess much like California in 2001 during the Enron crisis.

2) Max wind blows during light-load seasons, and usually in evenings. Utility gets stuck buying wind and backing down thermal to make room for the must-take. Oh, and when the wind falls off from maximum to nearly zero in an hour, they get to ramp up the peaker units ASAP. Which would be fine, except RWE has already mothballed older simple cycle gas peaker units due to hemorrhaging $5 billion in 2013 due to #1 above. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26430674

3) The wind power blows along the coastal plains in the northeast of Germany. Most of the industry and residential load is in the southwest and south. The utilities get to pay billions to build DC transmission lines to move the power from the coast to Bavaria  http://www.law360.com/articles/453536/1-3b-renewable-energy-power-line-proposed-for-germany  despite losing their a$$ on power sales due to #1 and #2.

"Cheap" solar is more about government control and imposing mandates that shareholders and ratepayers must support, rather than the environment. That's why concentrated solar plants keep getting permits, while they fry more birds in midair than nuclear power plants ever killed since the CP-1.

Good evaluation but then if we had a real free market with no government ideological mandates it would find a mean balance.

[Marlin]

Didn't say they did I said peak power.

Good evaluation but then if we had a real free market with no government ideological mandates it would find a mean balance.

Hmmm I think we are headed for PolySci if not already there.