FERC 1000 Rule and Opportunities to Solidify the Competitiveness of NPPs

[GLW]

The FERC Order No. 1000 final rules are being foisted upon the transmission end of the business.

The final rules do call for enhancing reliability and the robust capability of the nation's grid (gotta love those wordsaladsmiths at FERC).

Does anyone see an opportunity for baseload NPP's to niche out a more competitive position in these final rules or do the same losses apply as implemented after the Order No. 890 rules took effect?

Just casting about for a peer check on this one,.... 

[HydroDave63]

The FERC Order No. 1000 final rules are being foisted upon the transmission end of the business.

The final rules do call for enhancing reliability and the robust capability of the nation's grid (gotta love those wordsaladsmiths at FERC).

Does anyone see an opportunity for baseload NPP's to niche out a more competitive position in these final rules or do the same losses apply as implemented after the Order No. 890 rules took effect?

Just casting about for a peer check on this one,....  

With a little luck, the Florida PSC's objections http://www.thefloridacurrent.com/article.cfm?id=33575313 and rehearing will either a) get Order 1000 significantly rewritten, or b) get Order 1000 partly overturned in US District Court or c) SCOTUS hammers Order 1000 and FERC in general.  FERC has lately been an overflowing jailhouse toilet of Orders lately, including 764 that not only lets 'variable resources' miss schedules (thus making your ISO/RTO cover the shortfall with reserves) but now schedules have to be done in 15 minute intervals so the 'variable resources' (aka wind-powered eagle shredders http://news.yahoo.com/wind-power-us-extends-permit-eagle-deaths-145931345--finance.html ) can stay within a smaller imbalance penalty zone while they miss schedule.

Back to Odor 1000....the problem there is how the costs are allocated. If I'm a well-known political billionaire (or up and coming junior partner at the same hottub party) whose electric companies are putting up eagle shredders (built by a large politically connected manufacturer) and I want to put up lots of new high-voltage AC transmission, it is much nicer to say that my new transmission won't just carry MY generation, but also my neighbor's baseload generation (parallel circuit flows of electricity) so it is now a Regional product;therefore, whether my neighboring utilities can actually schedule over my line or not, I should get FERC ('Fundamentally Escaping Realistic Conclusions' or insert your own acronym here) to MAKE my neighbors pay for part of my new "WhiteElephantExpress" transmission project. I think that is what is called "value investing" by some folks, and redistribution by others. Oh yes, then like the night cook at Denny's garnishing the Grand Slam with some wilted parsley, FERC sprinkles the 'enhancing reliability', 'robust capability', 'unjust and unreasonable', 'unduly discriminatory' etc. on this crap sandwich.

The new large lines basically go from new generation to urban load centers, thus bypassing older baseload gen. This is meant to be another box of nails in baseload's coffin.

Other than that I have no opinion...but if I did, I'd need a charge code.  

[GLW]

With a little luck,.............

I read all that as not optimal for baseload NPPs,...

Unless, the new transmission capacity is realized and then followed by a seachange in the D.C. political bent, resulting in the end of subsidies to the avian genocide machines, with a resultant "hello old friend!" reassessment of the NPP baseload reliability and capacity,...

Provided the NPPs can hold on that long,...

Overall,...not good,....should the FERC juggernaut prevail in the courts,....

ah well,....

thanks for that perspective,....    perhaps there are others,...

[HydroDave63]

I read all that as not optimal for baseload NPPs,...

Unless, the new transmission capacity is realized and then followed by a seachange in the D.C. political bent, resulting in the end of subsidies to the avian genocide machines, with a resultant "hello old friend!" reassessment of the NPP baseload reliability and capacity,...

Provided the NPPs can hold on that long,...

Overall,...not good,....should the FERC juggernaut prevail in the courts,....

ah well,....

thanks for that perspective,....    perhaps there are others,...

"If" a baseload NPP was my paycheck and I was VP for a day....my strategy would be to load follow. I know the old arguments as to why NPPs don't currently do it (and have recited them myself in the past), but the only way a baseload unit can catch the gravy in a 15 minute market is to provide ancillary services (spinning & regulating reserve) that the BA/ISO/RTO will call upon as variable gen and others miss schedule. Figure out what your NPP's generator ramp rate is over a 10 minute span, back down the units that much from the top, and bid into the ancillary market. I've seen times where the hour-ahead market was 40 bucks and 5-minute spin was called upon at 250. Just depends on how thin your local reserve margins are (I'd buy another generator for my house if I lived in Texas next year btw).

What about all that shale oil and gas? It isn't going to last forever, and it hasn't gone straight down in price. Multiply the price of natgas by 7-7.5, and you get the price of electricity from gas at a modern CCGT






Yes, it means pi$$ing away more boration. Yes, it means shorter MTBF on unitized actuators and other MOVs in the plant. Yes, it means some procedure writers will get some nice OT checks. But the economic alternative is that your NPP can send gently used components to burial next to Rancho Seco's, Kewaunee's and Zion's.

[GLW]

"If" a baseload NPP was my paycheck and I was VP for a day....my strategy would be to load follow. I know the old arguments as to why NPPs don't currently do it (and have recited them myself in the past), but the only way a baseload unit can catch the gravy in a 15 minute market is to provide ancillary services (spinning & regulating reserve) that the BA/ISO/RTO will call upon as variable gen and others miss schedule. Figure out what your NPP's generator ramp rate is over a 10 minute span, back down the units that much from the top, and bid into the ancillary market. I've seen times where the hour-ahead market was 40 bucks and 5-minute spin was called upon at 250. Just depends on how thin your local reserve margins are (I'd buy another generator for my house if I lived in Texas next year btw).

What about all that shale oil and gas? It isn't going to last forever, and it hasn't gone straight down in price. Multiply the price of natgas by 7-7.5, and you get the price of electricity from gas at a modern CCGT






Yes, it means pi$$ing away more boration. Yes, it means shorter MTBF on unitized actuators and other MOVs in the plant. Yes, it means some procedure writers will get some nice OT checks. But the economic alternative is that your NPP can send gently used components to burial next to Rancho Seco's, Kewaunee's and Zion's.

And yet none of this sounds like an efficient or intelligent way to run a grid,...

It's a grid run by politicians and their tax sucking patrons, not dedicated managers, engineers and technicians,...

ah well,...