PRA Operating Experience Tool (POET)

Empirical, traceable PRA inputs derived from real U.S. nuclear fleet operating experience.

Selection Pick a plant, analysis window, and peer group

Quick windows:
Methodology Method Basis & V&V Standard Crosswalk Reference Library

Diablo Canyon 1 2016-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · data through 2026-08-24

Reactor typePWR (PWR)
ContainmentPWR Large Dry (ambient)
NSSS vendorWEST 4LP
OwnerPacific Gas & Electric
NERC regionWECC
Net MWe1,122
Commercial op1985-05-07
StatusOperating
Exposure10.00 rcaly / 9.35 rcry

Snapshot key PRA inputs at a glance

Unplanned IE frequency
0.300 / reactor-yr
Bayes mean 0.350
Refuel interval
1.7 yr
avg 38 d outage
Fuel reliability
10 / 10
Green · Q1 (sample)

Empirical PRA Inputs normalized per reactor-year

PRA InputValueUnitsBasis
Initiating Event Frequencies (unplanned / forced)
IE-SHORT-TRANSIENT0.2000per reactor-year2 events, ≤2 d
IE-MEDIUM-TRANSIENT0.0000per reactor-year0 events, 3-5 d
IE-LONG-OUTAGE0.1000per reactor-year1 events, >5 d
IE-ALL-UNPLANNED0.3000per reactor-year3 events total
Exposure (duration-based)
EXPOSURE-SHORT0.300days / reactor-yearavg dur 1.50 d
EXPOSURE-MEDIUM0.000days / reactor-yearavg dur 0.00 d
EXPOSURE-LONG0.800days / reactor-yearavg dur 8.00 d
Plant Operating State Fractions (time-based)
STATE-FULL-POWER0.9015fractionpower > 90%
STATE-TRANSITION0.0337fractiononline, 1-90%
STATE-EARLY-SHUTDOWN0.0016fractionforced, elapsed ≤2 d
STATE-MID-SHUTDOWN0.0014fractionforced, 3-7 d
STATE-EXTENDED-SHUTDOWN0.0000fractionforced, >7 d
STATE-REFUELING0.0619fractionscheduled outages
Planned Outages (refueling)
REFUEL-FREQ0.5999per reactor-year6 outages
REFUEL-AVG-DAYS37.67daysmean scheduled duration

Operating-State Distribution 3,653 observed days

90.1%
Full power 90.1%Transition 3.4%Refueling 6.2%Early SD 0.2%Mid SD 0.1%Extended SD 0.0%

Fuel Reliability Sample · INPO Sustained Fuel Reliability

Example data. Example dataset (Jan 2012 to Apr 2026). INPO performance-indicator data belongs to its members, so the figures shown here are a sample for illustration. For current numbers specific to your own fleet, import your INPO PIC export of the Sustained Fuel Reliability dataset, grouped by owner.
10 / 10
Green · Top quartile in the INPO peer set Flat 2 Year · as of Apr 2026 (Double Cycle)

The Sustained Fuel Reliability index (0 to 10, higher is better) is an INPO performance indicator of fuel-cladding integrity sustained over the last two operating cycles. It is a graded health index, not a Poisson frequency, so POET reports it as a benchmarked metric (value, trend, fleet rank), not as a gamma-Bayesian rate. For PRA it informs fuel-barrier / source-term and enterprise-risk judgments rather than an initiating-event frequency.

The Analyst tier adds the 2012-present trend chart and the U.S.-fleet benchmark for this indicator.

Sample from the INPO Performance Indicator program (Sustained Fuel Reliability), Jan 2012 to Apr 2026. Grade and quartile are as reported by INPO; percentile and fleet range are computed by POET over NukeWorker-tracked U.S. units. Import your own PIC export (grouped by owner) for current values.

Full PRA Report Analyst tier

Unlock the full, defensible PRA report

You are viewing the free summary above. The Analyst report turns these point estimates into a submittal-ready package:

  • Bayesian credible intervals on every frequency (RADS-style 5th / mean / 95th)
  • Per-event drill-down of every outage behind the numbers
  • Year-by-year trend of the initiating event rate
  • Fleet & peer benchmarking with the transient multiplier
  • NRC industry-average comparison plus a Bayesian update against the NRC prior
  • Fleet concurrency & seasonality
  • Empirical-Bayes fleet model and initiating-event cause attribution (turbine trip, LOOP, loss of feedwater… from NRC event text)
  • PRA Reference Library: component reliability, common-cause failure, and LOOP non-recovery data
  • A printable full report (save as PDF) plus CSV / Excel / JSON / licensing-text export with full traceability metadata

Traceability

Time range: 2016-01-01 to 2025-12-31  |  Observed data: 2016-01-01 to 2025-12-31
Plants included: 1  |  Exposure: 10.00 reactor-calendar-years, 9.35 reactor-critical-years
Classification thresholds: SHORT<=2d, MEDIUM 3-5d, LONG>5d
Data source: NukeWorker outage database (NRC daily power reactor status + classified outage events)
Generated: 2026-08-24T08:25:13-04:00  |  Full methodology & calculation logic →