Exelon may shut down nuclear plants in profit struggle

[Marlin]

Exelon may shut down nuclear plants in profit struggle


http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2014-02-06/business/chi-exelon-earnings-20140206_1_nuclear-plants-coal-fired-power-plants-power-prices

[Fermi2]

They are also thinking of chopping Ginna

[GLW]

time to warm up your EMC/EMT spreadsheets,....

[HydroDave63]

Exelon may shut down nuclear plants in profit struggle


http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2014-02-06/business/chi-exelon-earnings-20140206_1_nuclear-plants-coal-fired-power-plants-power-prices

Interestingly, the article shows that revenues and profits are mildly increasing. The impetus for this ominous warning would seem more likely that someone, somewhere WANTS nuclear to be 'twisting in the wind', so to speak 

[SloGlo]

aye am reeding the as a squeeze play on the grid to the greenies. threatening to close quad cities n clinton will bring out strong union voices to the potus and administration.

[RRhoads]

They didnt mention them by name in the all hands meeting today but the discussion was 2 more plants will probably be shutdown prematurely in 2014.

[HydroDave63]

I believe you, but it looks more like greed than necessity...right now this is tall cotton for energy markets, especially if you have inexpensive baseload that isn't dependent on nat gas or wind

Electricity prices in lower right column

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.cfm

[hiddencamper]

Exelon hedges their power sales 3 years in advance, so they aren't seeing very much if the high power prices over the last month.

There are plants in exelon that are negative even after looking 10+ years out using market models, and the models exelon has had for the last few years keep turning for the worst for the few units getting hit the hardest. Yes Exelon as a whole is making profits, but the individual plants in question have negative asset value and are in the red for several years or more. If you can see a long term path to profitability, it makes sense to lose money on an asset for a few years, but if you can't even see that, it becomes hard to justify keeping the plants open.

Anyways. That's my what i know

[cjaj123]

Would Exelon continue to hire as normal if it were possible they would shut QC and Clinton down? I have not worked for Exelon but am currently trying to get in as an Equipment Operator. I plan on asking, at my interview, questions specific to the plant as I want to be sure I am choosing the best location since I live within commuting distance of two plants. It is so costly for Exelon to hire and train new operators I wouldn't think they would do so if shutdowns were coming , would they? I don't have the insider knowledge that many of you here hold. Based on all the information I have seen on here over the last year while I have been doing my best to research the position, plant and company, it seems likely that you guys know whats going on or At least have a more educated assessment than I.

[GoHawks]

Would Exelon continue to hire as normal if it were possible they would shut QC and Clinton down? I have not worked for Exelon but am currently trying to get in as an Equipment Operator. I plan on asking, at my interview, questions specific to the plant as I want to be sure I am choosing the best location since I live within commuting distance of two plants. It is so costly for Exelon to hire and train new operators I wouldn't think they would do so if shutdowns were coming , would they? I don't have the insider knowledge that many of you here hold. Based on all the information I have seen on here over the last year while I have been doing my best to research the position, plant and company, it seems likely that you guys know whats going on or At least have a more educated assessment than I.

Have you been asked to test and interview?  You are worrying over nothing if you haven't

[Fermi2]

Yes they will hire as normal right up till they make the decision.

[cjaj123]

Thank you for the responses...and yes I have tested and been invited to interview.

[Nukeictech]

Kewaunee was still hiring operators pretty much right up to the last moment.  I believe one individual started about 1week before the announcement.  Overall I would have to say that Dominion has treated everyone that was at the plant at the time of the announcement very well, and still does for those who are still there.

[cjaj123]

Why are utilities not trying to sell the public on the idea of nuclear being an important component to reducing the carbon emissions of the U.S.? I have seen a few articles recently but as a whole even growing up in Northern Illinois, surrounded by nuclear plants, I have rarely heard anything about them in terms of the power they supply or greenhouse gases. I'm sure this is discussed on here somewhere so I'll go searching.

[Fermi2]

Doesn't matter what you can sell of the price is too high.
Funny thing is those utilities that run heating boilers put out more carbon emissions than a dirt burner with scrubbers and an Fgd

[cjaj123]

I have to research it. I have no idea what types of generation are truly the best for the environment. You can find articles claiming supporting each of them and just as many articles condemning each of them.

[Higgs]

Why are utilities not trying to sell the public on the idea of nuclear being an important component to reducing the carbon emissions of the U.S.? I have seen a few articles recently but as a whole even growing up in Northern Illinois, surrounded by nuclear plants, I have rarely heard anything about them in terms of the power they supply or greenhouse gases. I'm sure this is discussed on here somewhere so I'll go searching.

Do have 6-8 billion to build a new nuclear plant? Or are you expecting utilities to do it out of the goodness of their hearts?

It is not economically feasible to start new construction today.

Justin

[Marlin]

It is not economically feasible to start new construction today.

Justin

From the Nukeworker news feed..

http://nuclearstreet.com/nuclear_power_industry_news/b/nuclear_power_news/archive/2014/02/19/doe-approves-loan-guarantees-for-new-vogtle-reactors-021902.aspx#.UwVazcKYacw

[Fermi2]

That doesn't make it feasible as those loans are not available to every utility. It also proves the nuke industry cannot be economical without government subsidy.
For a better look witness Watts Bar. 2 billion over and 3 years behind

[GLW]

...The Nuclear Renaissance isn't over, its on pause.

Two biggest hurdles/liabiities for commercial nukes;

NIMBY - Northeast new construction? - not likely in my lifetime,...
            Southeast? - Lots of potential,...
            Southwest? - Texas yes, everybody else no,...
            Upper Midwest? - not likely in my lifetime,...
            Great Central Prarie? - not likely in my lifetime,...
            Rockies - no
            Pacific coast - no

Long Term Waste Storage - Without a long term central repository, or state by state long term repositories (my preference), liability of spent fuel/GTCC materials will be the ugly football that keeps getting kicked down the road from corporate fleets to corporate mergers to that notion in the back of everybodies head that high level waste liability is "too big to fail" and the government of the people will get stuck with it eventually anyways,.....................

[Marlin]

That doesn't make it feasible as those loans are not available to every utility. It also proves the nuke industry cannot be economical without government subsidy.
For a better look witness Watts Bar. 2 billion over and 3 years behind

A loan guarantee is a subsidy? There is still interest in nuclear it is just very schizophrenic.

[HalfHazzard]

A loan guarantee is a subsidy? There is still interest in nuclear it is just very schizophrenic.

If the loan doesn't get paid back, it becomes a subsidy real quick.

It's schizophrenic with the rise and fall of fossil prices.  I wish there would be a renaissance, but it always seems to be 5 years away.

[Marlin]

If the loan doesn't get paid back, it becomes a subsidy real quick.

   True but unlike solar and wind nuclear has never failed to pay a debt or cost the government anything through guaranteed loans or PAAA.



 

It's schizophrenic with the rise and fall of fossil prices.  I wish there would be a renaissance, but it always seems to be 5 years away.

    Add continued subsidies to green energy that may or may not work like the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating Station, similar designed facilities are being canceled.


http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2014/02/19/largest-solar-thermal-plant-completed-ivanpah

[Higgs]

From the Nukeworker news feed..

http://nuclearstreet.com/nuclear_power_industry_news/b/nuclear_power_news/archive/2014/02/19/doe-approves-loan-guarantees-for-new-vogtle-reactors-021902.aspx#.UwVazcKYacw

I said start new construction today. Those units are already in progress.

Justin

[Fermi2]

Yes it is a subsidy. My utility is planning a new fossil unit and guess what? No loan guarantee from the DOE. We have to foot the old fashioned way with a rate case,
Without loan guarantees and Price Anderson nukes wouldn't make it.

[Marlin]

Without loan guarantees and Price Anderson nukes wouldn't make it.

No Debate there.

[Marlin]

I said start new construction today. Those units are already in progress.

Justin

OK but they did get a loan guarantee. 

[GLW]

No Debate there.

this moment comes along about as often as Comet Lovejoy, which has also made it's appearance this season, and will soon be only a vague and far away memory,....




http://spacefellowship.com/news/art37292/comet-lovejoy-over-the-great-wall.html

[Marlin]

this moment comes along about as often as Comet Lovejoy, which has also made it's appearance this season, and will soon be only a vague and far away memory,....

 



 

[HeavyD]

We (VC Summer) said "No, thank you." to the DOE's loan guarantee offer.

As far as other new nukes, we've had some discussions with some guys at other utilities.  Duke, for one, is still moving along with their COLAs for both Lee, here in SC, and Levy County, in FL.

Yes, they did cancel their EPC with WEC for Levy County.  That was a financial decision to keep from paying an annual fee for something they weren't using.  Lee had its FEIS approved recently by the NRC.  The NRC also informed Duke that a final decision for Lee's COLA will be made sometime in 2016.

We also realize the entire industry, including some international utilities, are watching us and Vogtle to see how the 2 projects go.  Currently, we remain on budget, as we have reported to the PSC and in our quarterly earnings call outs with investors and Wall Street.

[HalfHazzard]

Add continued subsidies to green energy that may or may not work like the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating Station, similar designed facilities are being canceled.

http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2014/02/19/largest-solar-thermal-plant-completed-ivanpah

Completely agree, this and the other plants powered by hope are a total scam.  And you're totally right, there's a possibility of recovering costs over 20-40 years for a nuke.  I'd donate my money to a nuke before a hot air plant because I know my lights will turn on when I flip the switch.

[Fermi2]

I am not saying other industries are not subsidized but fact is nuclear is just as heavily subsidized as other power producing industries. Duke will never build another nuke. The 4 new plants plus Watts Bar are the last 5 you will ever see in this country and in the end all will be over budget and if more than 3 including the Bar start up I will be surprised.

I know the ops manager at a solar mirror facility and he says it works like a charm.

[Marlin]

I am not saying other industries are not subsidized but fact is nuclear is just as heavily subsidized as other power producing industries. Duke will never build another nuke. The 4 new plants plus Watts Bar are the last 5 you will ever see in this country and in the end all will be over budget and if more than 3 including the Bar start up I will be surprised.

I know the ops manager at a solar mirror facility and he says it works like a charm.

Solar mirror facilities have a darker future than nuclear, it may work technically but has to many other issues reference my previous post.

    Add continued subsidies to green energy that may or may not work like the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating Station, similar designed facilities are being canceled.


http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2014/02/19/largest-solar-thermal-plant-completed-ivanpah

[Marlin]

This was in the Nukeworker.com news feed but I thought it would fit well in this thread so before it scrolled off the bottom here it is.

Despite New Plants, Nuclear Future Still Decades Away

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/02/21/energy-dept-backs-new-nuke-plants-but-nuclear-future-still-decades-away

[HydroDave63]

Solar mirror facilities have a darker future than nuclear, it may work technically but has to many other issues reference my previous post.

Many issues yes, but if the right oligarchs are the investors, then the EIS will get watered down and the plant will get built. Melted feathers, extincted tortoises....nothing to see here, move along now 

[Marlin]

nothing to see here, move along now  

Your Jedi mind tricks will not work on me.

[radbrat]

Hey....Nice selfie!!!

[Marlin]

Hey....Nice selfie!!!

I was having a good hair day, hard to see it in the picture though.  

[HydroDave63]

Another report keeping hope doom alive...

http://www.utilitydive.com/news/illinois-study-lays-out-options-alternatives-for-exelon-nuclear-plants/350636/

[Content1]

I applied for and received my California Teaching Credential.  Time to abandon this sinking ship.  While I left teaching back in 2003 because the nuclear wages were relatively high, teacher salaries rose by a couple a percent per year while nuke wages stayed flat.  With the closure of all these plants, we will flood the labor market with nuke workers, further suppressing wages.  Isn't the free market a good thing?  Sounds like the real future is natural gas plants.  It was a good ride, and thanks for the fish.

[GLW]

I applied for and received my California Teaching Credential.  Time to abandon this sinking ship.  While I left teaching back in 2003 because the nuclear wages were relatively high, teacher salaries rose by a couple a percent per year while nuke wages stayed flat.  With the closure of all these plants, we will flood the labor market with nuke workers, further suppressing wages.  Isn't the free market a good thing?  Sounds like the real future is natural gas plants.  It was a good ride, and thanks for the fish.

PM back which one. There are a couple dozen varieties and endorsedments on the credential's theme.

[Content1]

PM back which one. There are a couple dozen varieties and endorsedments on the credential's theme.

Mine is English and Multiple Subjects (K-9).  I will go for the least popular locations, like I did in the Outage sites.  There is plenty of competition among the degreed.

[Chimera]

Another report keeping hope doom alive...

http://www.utilitydive.com/news/illinois-study-lays-out-options-alternatives-for-exelon-nuclear-plants/350636/

That is a rather interesting report.  As I read it, the State of Illinois commissioned a report that says they are making too much electricity and Exelon says they have three nuke plants that aren't currently competitive with coal plants.  Except that the federal EPA, with its carbon tax mind-set, is trying to destroy the coal industry.  But that's okay, says the State of Illinois, because they can always buy power from somewhere else.  Except that all those coal-fired plants are in jeopardy from the EPA and you would need the land area of Texas to build enough wind farms and solar generating "plants" to replace the base-load plants that our federal and state governments want to shut down.  Perhaps these "public servants" need to brush up on the history of Argentina and how that government managed to destroy an otherwise perfectly sound economy.

[Rennhack]

the history of Argentina and how that government managed to destroy an otherwise perfectly sound economy.

Energy policy isn't what got Argentina into trouble.  It was the Macro inflation when they uncoupled form the US dollar. -- At least that's what they told us when we were their for our ProMBA class trip.  But what do 10 different sets of Argentina business executives know.  I'm sure you are smarter then the people that lived through it.

[HydroDave63]

That is a rather interesting report.  As I read it, the State of Illinois commissioned a report that says they are making too much electricity and Exelon says they have three nuke plants that aren't currently competitive with coal plants.  Except that the federal EPA, with its carbon tax mind-set, is trying to destroy the coal industry. 

I agree. The Illinois report seems to be using the hammer-and-anvil (simplified Hegelian dialectic) approach to hem in nuclear, using cheap coal as the anvil (although as you point out coal is the next intended victim, as illustrated by their 'The Way Forward' options on page 2, most of which involve Crap-and-Trade of carbon credits in a carbon exchange market), and the proposed HVDC line delivering KS/OK wind power through Illinois (top of page 9) as the hammer. So, in the 2016 projections, they make the case that the plants are too expensive as compared to electricity prices. To be honest, Fixed O&M costs are what is supporting that view, as seen on page 32. Look at the guy on your left, now look at the guy on your right. Two of you are Fixed O&M costs.

For the Cliff's Notes synopsis, skip to page 56. Those results come from the comparisons of Fixed O&M costs vs. LMP costs due to transmission congestion, and possible future changes in natgas prices.

On a positive note, check out the chart on page 42. Even by the Commission's own forecasts, electricity prices escalate continuously past 2016, so any plant surviving past then is in a good position to stay profitable.

[Chimera]

Energy policy isn't what got Argentina into trouble.  It was the Macro inflation when they uncoupled form the US dollar. -- At least that's what they told us when we were their for our ProMBA class trip.  But what do 10 different sets of Argentina business executives know.  I'm sure you are smarter then the people that lived through it.

No disagreement.  I was referring to the overarching control by government of which Argentina is an excellent example.

[Rennhack]

No disagreement.

That's no fun!