Did Tesla Just Kill Nuclear Power?

[Marlin]

really?!?!?!?

a 6 grand plus investment and the warranty does not matter?!?!?!

A warranty is not a tech spec.

in all things except commercial fusion power, that does seem to be the case,...

eventually the fun part of "gettin off the grid" is that the government begins to see that loss of revenue and finds new and creative ways of getting it back ala electric cars, hybrid cars and ultra fuel efficient cars:

(the conservative estimate to pay off the solar roof powerwall combo is 38 years, I doubt it will take the governments(s) 38 years to figure out how to levy a "solar use tax")


Electric-Car Owners Get Taxed for Not Paying Gas Taxes

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-06-06/electric-car-owners-get-taxed-for-not-paying-gas-taxes


These U.S. States Charge Electric Car Fees To Make Up For Lost Gas Tax Revenue
http://insideevs.com/u-s-states-charge-electric-car-fees-make-lost-gas-tax-revenue/

We are talking about home batteries not car batteries with the Powerwall.

Projected cost curve from the article, no gas taxes involved:

[GLW]

...Projected cost curve from the article, no gas taxes involved:

it is late and you are not comprehending:

the position was that when the consumer finds a way to remove themselves from the government's revenue stream the governemnt will eventually take notice and bring the consumer back in,....

within the last decade it was electric cars, etc., easing the consumer off gas taxes and the government coming back in with targeted electric car fees (aka taxes),...

in future decades as consumers ease themselves off the grid with powerwalls, solar roofs, etc. then the government will bring those consumers back in,...

in the case of electric cars the consumer has an investment of only a few years to assess wether the new government taxes are a detriment to be foregone in future purchase decisions,...

in the case of electric houses, a 38 year commitment means pretty much a lifetime of your new tax regime,...

e.g.

Average Electric Utility Costs
Power Costs: 49%
Distribution Expenses 6%
Administrative Expenses 9%
Depreciation 12%
Taxes and Fees 11%
Investment Financing 11%

http://www.puc.state.or.us/consumer/Understanding%20Your%20Electric%20Bill.pdf

[Marlin]

it is late and you are not comprehending:

the position was that when the consumer finds a way to remove themselves from the government's revenue stream the governemnt will eventually take notice and bring the consumer back in,....

within the last decade it was electric cars, etc., easing the consumer off gas taxes and the government coming back in with targeted electric car fees (aka taxes),...

in future decades as consumers ease themselves off the grid with powerwalls, solar roofs, etc. then the government will bring those consumers back in,...

in the case of electric cars the consumer has an investment of only a few years to assess wether the new government taxes are a detriment to be foregone in future purchase decisions,...

in the case of electric houses, a 38 year commitment means pretty much a lifetime of your new tax regime,...

e.g.

Average Electric Utility Costs
Power Costs: 49%
Distribution Expenses 6%
Administrative Expenses 9%
Depreciation 12%
Taxes and Fees 11%
Investment Financing 11%

http://www.puc.state.or.us/consumer/Understanding%20Your%20Electric%20Bill.pdf

So when the cost halves as projected, the taxes will be onerous Not a convincing argument. Not to mention the decline in subsidies for these kind of start-up technologies lessening the loss of revenue. I think I comprehend just fine   

[GLW]

....Not a convincing argument....

it's not an arguement,...

it's a statement:

to wit: sellers advertising to consumers that the consumer can offset initial new technology costs becuase the new technology will forego the taxes incurred from established energy sources, is all a short term foregoance,...

as the taxman gets accustomed to the game of predicting what taxes will be lost from which technologies, the taxman creates the new tax structure all the quicker,...

not an arguement, an observation,...

[Marlin]

it's not an arguement,...

it's a statement:

to wit: sellers advertising to consumers that the consumer can offset initial new technology costs becuase the new technology will forego the taxes incurred from established energy sources, is all a short term foregoance,...

as the taxman gets accustomed to the game of predicting what taxes will be lost from which technologies, the taxman creates the new tax structure all the quicker,...

not an arguement, an observation,...

   Still sounds like an argument unless you can verify it is a universal rule. What is the unique revenue stream that will be imposed by the government? Will they tax the reduction of use? Still not convincing, sounds more like generalization that could be applied to any product with reduced tax revenue which does not happen. If there is a revenue recovery I suspect it would be from another source as it is and will be encouraging renewables for some time.

[GLW]

   Still sounds like an argument unless you can verify it is a universal rule. What is the unique revenue stream that will be imposed by the government? Will they tax the reduction of use? Still not convincing, sounds more like generalization that could be applied to any product with reduced tax revenue which does not happen. If there is a revenue recovery I suspect it would be from another source as it is and will be encouraging renewables for some time.

okay, it's an arguement,...you win,....

[Marlin]

okay, it's an arguement,...you win,....

Darn, I was sure this one would last longer. 

[GLW]

Darn, I was sure this one would last longer. 

u2funny,...

[Shhnight]

As a current Solar Power Plant technician, solar power could easily replace Nuclear power however it will never happen. There are just too many politics involved for any sector to be eliminated. Our plant produces 550 MW, but is continuously being curtailed due to lack of consumer loading. The same issue exists at other plants nearby. With so much solar not being utilized and so much on the horizon it is entirely conceivable to be the primary source of power. Fortunately for nuclear power and other energy companies, our country is run by politicians owned by corporations.

[GLW]

As a current Solar Power Plant technician, solar power could easily replace Nuclear power however it will never happen. There are just too many politics involved for any sector to be eliminated. Our plant produces 550 MW, but is continuously being curtailed due to lack of consumer loading. The same issue exists at other plants nearby. With so much solar not being utilized and so much on the horizon it is entirely conceivable to be the primary source of power. Fortunately for nuclear power and other energy companies, our country is run by politicians owned by corporations.

The three US based solar facilities which put those MW numbers on the grid are in SoCal,...

the combined capacity of 1650MW was built with about 5.3 billion in DOE loan guarantee (3.2mil/MW),...

loan guarantees for 2000MW of nuclear is about 6.5 billion (3.25mil/MW),...

which makes solar competitive in SoCal,...

not so much in the U.P. or the receiving end of Hurricane Alley?!?!?!?

and not in Hawaii either, we're talking a minimum of 20 square miles for 1650MW,...

and Oahu needs to be able to call on 1300MW all the time and firm,...

and on Oahu, if it's not already built upon, it most likely never will be,...

maybe the Big Island, but those pesky volcanoes tend to ruin the best laid plans of mice and men,...

1959



2009



and those kinds of billions will always make these industries political,...

[Marlin]

As a current Solar Power Plant technician, solar power could easily replace Nuclear power however it will never happen. There are just too many politics involved for any sector to be eliminated. Our plant produces 550 MW, but is continuously being curtailed due to lack of consumer loading. The same issue exists at other plants nearby. With so much solar not being utilized and so much on the horizon it is entirely conceivable to be the primary source of power. Fortunately for nuclear power and other energy companies, our country is run by politicians owned by corporations.

True without subsidies solar would not be economical. Where does that power come from at night?

[Marlin]

I'm not running out to buy any of this but I can see it in the not too distant future. I'd rather be cautious and always let another run ahead. 

Tesla's solar roof rollout was ... meh. These other new solar power gadgets are cooler.

http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2016/10/31/13469846/tesla-solar-roof-solpad-solarwindow

[Bonds 25]

Shhnight.....ironic name BTW considering youre in the solar business. Thank you for the comedy read, I needed that. The politicians against solar bit was pure gold.

[Bonds 25]

The three US based solar facilities which put those MW numbers on the grid are in SoCal,...

the combined capacity of 1650MW was built with about 5.3 billion in DOE loan guarantee (3.2mil/MW)

1650 MW.....nameplate megawatts. The old trickeroo that the unreliables people pull. Lets see, what does a 1650 nameplate megawatt source of power produce at a ~20% capacity factor........

[hamsamich]

"Other companies like Dow have actually attempted solar panels that double as rooftop shingles before and wound up crashing against the hard realities of cost and efficiency and market competition."

http://theweek.com/articles/659093/why-teslas-solar-roof-better-lot-cheaper-than-sounds

This had some more numbers basically calling Tesla a wish-washy FS.  These roofs have already been out and haven't made money because they are too expensive.  The only thing that could change the game are the costs for the roof and the battery, and the price just isn't there.  It is coming down but why would anybody buy these unless they were very rich and lived far away from the grid?  And if this stuff is truly going to be so much better and cheaper 10 years from now, why would I want it now?  Thanks Tesla, please let me buy power for .37 cents a KWH or more now with power from the grid costing about .14.  I think I'll wait and if it really is that much cheaper and better then all my neighbors will have it, that will be the proof in my pudding.  Maybe rich people in Hawaii are loving this since their power is about .4  but probably not.

To me Hawaii is the real proving ground for solar because energy prices are so high out there.  If ANY solar roof/batt combo is more than marginally worth it's price HI will let us know when a majority of its houses go solar and disconnect from the grid.  HI has a small grid and good conditions for solar so it can't support so many solar houses connected to its grid.  It is a real problem out there.  If these roof/battery combos are the bomb then HI should devour them.  If not there is your answer.

[Marlin]

"Other companies like Dow have actually attempted solar panels that double as rooftop shingles before and wound up crashing against the hard realities of cost and efficiency and market competition."

http://theweek.com/articles/659093/why-teslas-solar-roof-better-lot-cheaper-than-sounds

This had some more numbers basically calling Tesla a wish-washy FS.  These roofs have already been out and haven't made money because they are too expensive.  The only thing that could change the game are the costs for the roof and the battery, and the price just isn't there.  It is coming down but why would anybody buy these unless they were very rich and lived far away from the grid?  And if this stuff is truly going to be so much better and cheaper 10 years from now, why would I want it now?  Thanks Tesla, please let me buy power for .37 cents a KWH or more now with power from the grid costing about .14.  I think I'll wait and if it really is that much cheaper and better then all my neighbors will have it, that will be the proof in my pudding.  Maybe rich people in Hawaii are loving this since their power is about .4  but probably not.

To me Hawaii is the real proving ground for solar because energy prices are so high out there.  If ANY solar roof/batt combo is more than marginally worth it's price HI will let us know when a majority of its houses go solar and disconnect from the grid.  HI has a small grid and good conditions for solar so it can't support so many solar houses connected to its grid.  It is a real problem out there.  If these roof/battery combos are the bomb then HI should devour them.  If not there is your answer.

All true but many products start too expensive for most people and end up after improved process, design, and increases in sales volume they became more available to most consumers. Pretty much the same for his electric cars, people who buy them are a little better off and even though it is not that practical yet it is a prestige buy.

[hamsamich]

Yes, but it just seems like Tesla is being purposefully vague on how much this stuff costs today.  There are plenty of great things in the world that are out of reach for the middle class that aren't touted as world saving godsends.  Just like Tesla's roof and power-wall.  Maybe it will be someday.  Not today and probably not next decade.  Skews people's views on renewable power and all the lemmings just jump on board railing against all the things that actually keep us living to the degree we've become accustomed to.

[Marlin]

Yes, but it just seems like Tesla is being purposefully vague on how much this stuff costs today.  There are plenty of great things in the world that are out of reach for the middle class that aren't touted as world saving godsends.  Just like Tesla's roof and power-wall.  Maybe it will be someday.  Not today and probably not next decade.  Skews people's views on renewable power and all the lemmings just jump on board railing against all the things that actually keep us living to the degree we've become accustomed to.

Agree, it is not in reach of most people and probably won't be for a few years to a decade. He may be vague because he is still in development, the article did say there were some more changes to occur prior to release next year. There are also the subsides that he gets for all of his projects SpaceX etc. to the tune of $2.9 billion dollars, he may be trying to hang on to the innovation investment/subsidy band wagon.

[GLW]

.....To me Hawaii is the real proving ground for solar because energy prices are so high out there.  If ANY solar roof/batt combo is more than marginally worth it's price HI will let us know when a majority of its houses go solar and disconnect from the grid.  HI has a small grid and good conditions for solar so it can't support so many solar houses connected to its grid.  It is a real problem out there.  If these roof/battery combos are the bomb then HI should devour them.  If not there is your answer.

nope,....not happening,....

simple statistics,...

the home ownership rate in the US of A is down to the low 60 percentiles and dropping,...

Hawaii is even lower, by eight to ten percent on the latest numbers, depending on your variables,...

no landlord is going to trust the good stewardship of a capital expenditure as expensive and stewardship intensive as solar infrastructure to a tenant, excepting very high end tenants, but definitely NOT middle class or less,...

I've been a landlord, emphasis on BEEN, no way jose,...

after the crap I have seen tenants capable of?!?!?!?!?

solar panels on the roof, worth how many hundreds to some sorta fence in some sorta back alley rented storage unit?!?!?!

Powerwall batteries and inverters worth thousands of dollars in reclaimable lithium?!?!?!?

not happening brother, no how, no way,....

hell, the government will not install this stuff in their housing projects for the very same reasons,....

solar powered housing freeing the grid of thousands of MW demands?!?!?!?

until home ownership is running in the high eighties that is not a strong economics projection,....

homeowners may go solar, LONG TERM homeowners are much more likely to go solar,...

BOTH of the foregoing are not the societal norm so much anymore,....

THAT's why the government offers all those crazy tax incentives,....

short term gains for short term homeowners are what makes solar attractive for near term purchase,...

the only way to "subsidize" solar other than those tax incentives (which are national credit card incentives) will be to mandate solar in new construction and penalize existing units which do not have solar,...

watch for that to be coming down the 'pike, dressed up as "being a good citizen vis a vis environmental and climate stewardship",...

bad citizen's must pay,...

[hamsamich]

well let me rephrase mr attorney.  when the percentage of homeowners who live at home goes into the majority for solar/batt in HI then I will believe some of the hype.  HI pays about 3 times as much for grid power as you and I so if solar/batt is a good thing I think it would happen in HI first.  right now they are at about the top for solar power production per capita due to this.  Nevada and CA is up there too but HI is limited due to grid constraints and they cap the number of people allowed to be on the grid and use solar, or it would be even higher.  So my point is if the batt/roof combo is so vluable HI should be the first to pump it up since the grid issue won't be a factor for those not on it.   There are people angry in HI because they aren't allowed to connect to the grid with a solar system until approved.  Supposedly already 12% of households have solar as of 2015 in HI and many more are waiting....One other thing that throws a wrench into all this when comparing to the rest of the US is HIs low energy use due to mild climate.  they use a little more than half as much as the rest of us....let your imagination run wild on the affect this would have on HIs appetite for solar/batt combo.  I can think of a bunch of reasons for and against...  If the grid gets on board and doesn't charge an arm and a leg for usage and approves those waiting then all this goes out the window....basically if there are places where the power is at an exorbitantly high price and the utility isn't on board with residential solar this makes a testube for this product...right now HI is the only one that has both of these in place, a couple of states are running a distant 2nd at 17 cents per kwh while HI is 34 (i just looked it up to get the correct prices).  we will see how it goes...


I guess the point is this is GRID vs Battery and there are plenty of reasons not to get the battery including being a landlord.  although many places in HI are high end with high end stuff and large deposits.  plus an apartment complex with a maintenance guy might be even better at maintaining this system than some homeowners.

I don't think it will happen, but not just because HI has a few more landlords than the rest of the US.  HI is a testube for solar right now because of the high electric prices so yes, it's not overwhelmingly taking root there or anywhere but if it does anywhere it will be HI unless something changes there due to triple electricity rates vs the rest of the US.  Triple...wow.

[GLW]

well let me rephrase mr attorney......

all valid, keep somethings in mind,...

12%,....

a smidge over 50% of Hawaii households are owned homes,....

15 to 20 % of Hawaii homeowners are rich,....

really rich, that's why they live in Hawaii,...

that's why they want solar,...they can afford the installation,....

living in Hawaii is very different,...

I know,...

when drawing aprallels to the rest of the US of A one has to consider a lot of different perspectives,....

solar and batteries SHOULD be a good fit for Hawaiii as a personal investment and as a marketed grid,...

but how to fund it, maintain it, site it, etc.,....

well, that's where things in Hawaii get fuzzy,....

[hamsamich]

True!  interesting place little testing ground.   if things don't give at 3.3x the national average for power prices on a large scale it aint happenin anywhere.  ive had this convo with a couple renewable zealots and they didn't even know about Hawaii and its importance.  funny.  kinda like the people that hate nuclear and don't know the earth had natural underground nuclear reactors a billion yrz ago.

[Ksheed]

when drawing aprallels to the rest of the US of A one has to consider a lot of different perspectives,....

What are you drawing? Is that some kind of indigenous species only found in Hawaii? 

[Marlin]

Agree, it is not in reach of most people and probably won't be for a few years to a decade. He may be vague because he is still in development, the article did say there were some more changes to occur prior to release next year. There are also the subsides that he gets for all of his projects SpaceX etc. to the tune of $2.9 billion dollars, he may be trying to hang on to the innovation investment/subsidy band wagon.

Someone did a cost estimate without Tesla's help and yeah it looks like a luxury item for now.

Here's How Much Tesla's New Solar Roof Could Cost

http://www.consumerreports.org/roofing/heres-how-much-teslas-new-solar-roof-shingles-could-cost/

[hamsamich]

I pay about 2000 bucks a year for electricity.  Looking at those numbers and keeping in mind the price of solar and battery is supposed to fall far in the next decade it would be a no brainier to me not to do it.  I guess for people that have the money and want to look cool and environmentally sound to their neighbors it would be just delicious.