The Nuclear Plant That Has U.K., France on Edge

[Marlin]

$23 Billion to build before overruns and $48 billion above the market rate over the lifetime of the project. 


The Nuclear Plant That Has U.K., France on Edge
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-29/quicktake-q-a-the-nuclear-plant-that-has-u-k-france-on-edge

[Bonds 25]

I'd like to see a comparison with how much it would cost (actual....Include all subsidies if warranted) to supply 7% of the UK's total energy demand with wind and solar. Not nameplate.....but actual 7% for the next 40 years.

Then a comparison on lifetime CO2 emissions....

Then a comparison on land usage.....

Then a comparison (legit....not Greenie wacko) on actual environmental impacts

[hamsamich]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-07/hinkley-subsidy-may-reach-37-billion-pounds-twice-last-estimate

it is based on last year's "depressed" wholesale price.  these types of projections are like pretending a crystal ball exists.  Whenever these questions pop up I always think about what the price of natural gas might be in 5 - 10 years as well.  nobody knows.  and if nuclear didn't exist, the price of natural gas would go even higher eventually because we would be using much more and be more at the mercy of natty gas and other fossils since no alternative.  everything seems to be based on the price of natural gas.  that isn't a great way to diversify your energy portfolio (running to natural gas since it is so cheap right now and has been for a while).  it will go up here in the U.S.  especially when the U.S. supply starts to globalize.

[Rerun]

Gas prices aint going up for 15 years at least.

[GLW]

Gas prices aint going up for 15 years at least.

Henry  Hub has prices up between 13% to 15% by  Dec 2017

[hamsamich]

yeah you might want to check your historical charts as well.

[Rerun]

Nope I used to work for a gas company until about 4 months ago. Gas prices aint going up and will never reach a point where nuclear is competitive.

[Marlin]

Henry  Hub has prices up between 13% to 15% by  Dec 2017

Looks like it is even higher to 2018 according to Economy Forecast Agency.

July 2016 2.84/million British thermal unit

July 2017 3.46/million British thermal unit

July 2018 3.63/million British thermal unit

http://longforecast.com/gas/natural-gas-price-forecast.html

[desertdog]

Maybe some of you forget the late 90s when all utilities built natural gas plants. Shutting down perfectly fine nuc units based on "performance". All the way up until gas demand out paced distribution and all of those plants sat idle because the utilities couldn't afford to run them.

[Marlin]

Maybe some of you forget the late 90s when all utilities built natural gas plants. Shutting down perfectly fine nuc units based on "performance". All the way up until gas demand out paced distribution and all of those plants sat idle because the utilities couldn't afford to run them.

Not forgotten, market forces and regulation have and will shutdown plants but that does not exclude operation of those who can compete or end up with "Green" money. It looks like Surry will be one on those who will compete and the ones in the Southeast will survive due to regulations. New England is taking a second look at it's plants in New York. Gas is one force on the equation and the future of that price for planning on projects that take years to build and then expected to operate for 40 to 80 years has a perspective that may not be obvious.

[hamsamich]

some people are clairvoyant I guess since they worked for "a gas company", so then they know 100% what the future holds.  even though they've already been proven dead wrong on their "dead" predictions.

[GLW]

Maybe some of you forget the late 90s when all utilities built natural gas plants. Shutting down perfectly fine nuc units based on "performance". All the way up until gas demand out paced distribution and all of those plants sat idle because the utilities couldn't afford to run them.

well no because I lived it and I did DnD at more than a few,...

so, let's define the late 90s as 96, 97, 98 & 99,...

that leaves 90, 91, 92 & 93 as the early 90s with 94 & 95 relegated to the mid-90s,...

which results in the following commercial shutdowns:

Connecticut Yankee - 96
Big Rock - 97
Maine Yankee - 97
Zion 1 - 98
Zion 2 - 98

Big Rock was part of the Power Demonstration Project (Round 3, 1957), it was small, a demo plant which stayed commercially viable into the 1990s via heavily regulated markets and was too small to comfortably compete in the emergent markets of the 1990s, not to mention it was old, well past it's expected lifetime, with emerging upgrades, license renewal hurdles, etcetera, all of which were unlikely to be offset by continued commercial revenues,..

Zion 1 & 2 were not shuttered because of natural gas prices, and we can leave that where it is,...

that would leave CY and MY as potential victims of natural gas,...

at the time of their demise, they represented less than 2% of all nuke plants on the grid, and the "perfectly fine" moniker is not a solid moniker,...

MY utility management listed the cost of clearing the NRC deficiencies docket as the reason for permanent shutdown,...

CY utility management listed competition from cheap natural gas plus a few other considerations,...

that leaves us with one "perfectly fine" nuc unit killed by natural gas in the late 90s,...

less than 1% of the late 90s nuke fleet,...and,....at the time,.... the oldest nuke plant on the grid,...

not such a bad victim rate from cheap natural gas,...

we are nukes, we owe it to ourselves to be as "Joe Friday" as we can be,...